Weak made hand turned semi bluff

[IowaSkinsFan]

opp is lagg reg, 25/20/5, raises a lot of flops. I suspect his range here is 22-TT, and air. How do you play back against this range? How bout this?
For those who ask, I'd have to guess he folds an overpair versus a line that doesnt have him already committed 40% of the time.
PokerStars Game #9324790590: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/04/08 - 21:39:39 (ET)
Table 'Phobos II' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: mikemac_21 ($212.20 in chips)
Seat 2: Hannu ($206.35 in chips)
Seat 3: mightyboossh ($499.15 in chips)
Seat 4: mobster80 ($278.55 in chips)
Seat 5: Matador006 ($192 in chips)
Seat 6: redgrape ($200 in chips)
mightyboossh: posts small blind $1
mobster80: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [7d 6d]
Matador006: calls $2
redgrape: raises $8 to $10
mikemac_21: folds
Hannu: calls $10
mightyboossh: folds
mobster80: folds
Matador006: folds
*** FLOP *** [2d 7c 3s]
redgrape: bets $16
Hannu: raises $32 to $48
redgrape: raises $142 to $190 and is all-in

[Genitruc]

If you suspect he's bluffing then I prefer calling, letting him suck out to his 2-5 outs and CR turn AI

edit : just thought about it for 2 more secs and figured you should weight your play based on your perception of his frequencies (yawn... obv...). The more you think he's bluffing the better it is to CR ai on turn.

But based on your description of his range, his play seems pretty balanced so it'll be hard to find an optimal line. Interesting spot ; I hope ppl chime in here because I think it could be a great discussion about ranges and equity etc. I'll shut up for now.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

What's his went to showdown %? I like it if you think he can fold JJ-88.

[IowaSkinsFan]

What's his went to showdown %? I like it if you think he can fold JJ-88.

Like 24%.
I already noted if I had to guess based on knowing about this player I'd say that he'd call with 88-JJ probably 50-60% of the time. That would be my best estimate.
OF COURSE, he's either always folding it or always calling, but I can only guess because ive never seen him in this situation.

[sauce123]

id just fold probably

[IowaSkinsFan]

id just fold probably

I thought you were a regular floatulus prime?

[benny999]

i solved an ev equation about this recently...it said with ~5-6 outs facing this sort of action and stacks, opp needs to fold about 2/3 of the time for 0 ev.

so i think it seems pretty reasonable once in a while vs this sort of opp, but like genitruc said there's gotta be a line where if he's maniacal enough then calling and c/r the turn is even better.

[IowaSkinsFan]

i solved an ev equation about this recently...it said with ~5-6 outs facing this sort of action and stacks, opp needs to fold about 2/3 of the time for 0 ev.

If that's correct, which im surprised if it is, yeah i dont think i can do this, it's very borderline.
But with essentially 6 outs because of backdoors i have something like 20% equity against his range because of sets. Then there is like $80 dead money. idk it just seems like he'd have to fold a good 20% less than that.

[benny999]

i could be off on it, but here's the hand i worked from and the equation, plz tell me if i messed up somewhere since i barely ever do this:

the hand was I raised AJo pre to 7, and got 1 laggy caller. stacks ~$200.
I cbet a 5 2 2 rainbow flop for $11, and got raised to $35, making the pot $63.
I reraised to $122 which I figure comitted me to the pot.

so I'm risking 175 for a 63 pot (thought the #s were closer, but in yours it's 142 for a 84 pot, so ya it's a bit different).
needs to work...175/(175 + 63) = 78%ish not counting suck outs

but when called, i have 20%ish equity (on avg, since, rarely, but sometimes he has a two or 55)

x= % of times he calls
(1-x) = % times he folds
ev= -175 * x * .8 + 63 * (1-x) = 0

x=31%

1-x = 69%

so about 2/3 of the time. seems kinda high, but sometimes it seems too likely someone is bluff raising or with a hand that likely cant stand being reraised.

[IowaSkinsFan]

There doesn't seem to be anything wrong... if only bluff's didn't need to work twice as much as calls!