super annoying spot

[IowaSkinsFan]

opp is 25/15/0.5 I have never seen him bluff and based on his play id say his mosty likely holding is a FD on flop and turn. Never have seen him block bet.

PokerStars Game #9573167012: Hold'em No Limit ($1/$2) - 2007/04/23 - 18:50:19 (ET)
Table 'Irene II' 6-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: investor_s2m ($514.85 in chips)
Seat 2: R0HR ($197 in chips)
Seat 3: redgrape ($509.55 in chips)
Seat 4: BHold ($239.25 in chips)
Seat 6: marquitos74 ($262.80 in chips)
marquitos74: posts small blind $1
investor_s2m: posts big blind $2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to redgrape [Ah As]
R0HR: folds
redgrape: raises $6 to $8
BHold: folds
marquitos74: folds
investor_s2m: calls $6
*** FLOP *** [Ac 7d Jd]
investor_s2m: bets $14
redgrape: raises $40 to $54
investor_s2m: calls $40
*** TURN *** [Ac 7d Jd] [Kc]
investor_s2m: checks
redgrape: bets $94
investor_s2m: calls $94
*** RIVER *** [Ac 7d Jd Kc] [Tc]
investor_s2m: bets $152
redgrape: ????

[IowaSkinsFan]

BTW i think the huge mistake in this hand was not at least potting the turn. I'm interested in seeing how much people think should be bet.

[Halv]

Guess it could look like a Qdxd backed into a straight, but with his low AF does he really lead with a flush draw on an A high flop? I AQdd, 98dd perhaps? I think the main hand to worry about here is AQ, but I think he could easily have some kind of two pair or a lower set. I can't fold this, but could there be some value in shoving?

[IowaSkinsFan]

I don't know why i posted this hand. I'm 85% sure this guy hit a straight from his FD combo draw. If people still want to discuss it though go ahead, i think my turn bet was a huge mistake and should've been over the pot.

[Jager]

Is he really folding AdQd to a turn over bet?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Is he really folding AdQd to a turn over bet?

I don't want him to fold but surely i can bet $150 here and have him still call because of implied odds he doesnt have.

[Jager]

Exactly, so then why over bet, aren't you just enhancing your reverse implied odds?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Exactly, so then why over bet, aren't you just enhancing your reverse implied odds?

Jager, lets say the river comes some diamond low card. ISF is probably going to have to pay him off if he open pushes. Therefore, if you don't bet enough he will have implied odds to call the turn. He's probably stupid enough to call an overbet too.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Exactly, so then why over bet, aren't you just enhancing your reverse implied odds?

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

[Jager]

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

So then if his obvious draw completes, you are folding? What range do you think he puts you on?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Exactly, so then why over bet, aren't you just enhancing your reverse implied odds?

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

There are a lot of bets you wouldn't be able to fold to.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

So then if his obvious draw completes, you are folding? What range do you think he puts you on?

uhhhhh probably a really really strong hand.
If he shoves when a diamond comes i fold. simple as that.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Exactly, so then why over bet, aren't you just enhancing your reverse implied odds?

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

There are a lot of bets you wouldn't be able to fold to, though. And a push wouldn't be that easy to fold to. His AF is so low, he could have a set or two pair (that is if the river is a low diamond, this river i think is an obvious fold though. It would be tough to call with a bare Q there).

[Miffed22001]

there isnt a bet you can make on the turn where you have to auto call the river for odds which sucks.
this reminds me of that hand i posted where i flopped top two and walked into a rivered flush, its def a fold on river but its really awful to play the turn.

[Genitruc]

???

based on your read there s no purpose to posting this hand

it's a fold

[Halv]

... and to think that I consider shoving for value in spots like this.

[IowaSkinsFan]

???

based on your read there s no purpose to posting this hand

it's a fold

I know i pointed this out, it may have been just a snap vent.
The turn is still interesting though.

[sauce123]

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

Exactly, your turn bet in my opinion doesnt matter all that much- any turn bet you make is +ev if you can lay it down on the river to a lot of action. So your problem is that you have to figure out the biggest turn bet he will call just about always as him folding is a disaster. Usually against a donk such as this, betting 2/3 pot seems good as he thinks he has implied odds but doesnt. If you think he will call a psb (which seems kind of unlikely) then by all means do it, or go 3/4 pot.

River is pretty straightforward, hes never valuebetting 2pair, its highly unlikely he has a set, and he may be bluffing a small percentage of the time. A fold is probably correct, but I dont know if I could make it. Not that interesting of a hand honestly...

[IowaSkinsFan]

I am never calling a diamond river if the guy pushes into me.
We bet over because he'll call more money when he has the worse hand.

Exactly, your turn bet in my opinion doesnt matter all that much- any turn bet you make is +ev if you can lay it down on the river to a lot of action. So your problem is that you have to figure out the biggest turn bet he will call just about always as him folding is a disaster. Usually against a donk such as this, betting 2/3 pot seems good as he thinks he has implied odds but doesnt. If you think he will call a psb (which seems kind of unlikely) then by all means do it, or go 3/4 pot.

River is pretty straightforward, hes never valuebetting 2pair, its highly unlikely he has a set, and he may be bluffing a small percentage of the time. A fold is probably correct, but I dont know if I could make it. Not that interesting of a hand honestly...

Yeah these are my thoughts exactly, i actually made a post that i realized it wasnt interesting.

I think $150 is a good turn bet IMO considering his range is hands getting it all in and draws.

[sauce123]

150 is too big