99 overpair on monotone board vs. maniac

[Silly String]

I F'd this up. I was talking this one over with my brother, and he thinks I should go yard on the flop or fold to the raise. Too many scare cards can hit the turn. I planned to CR all in on any non-diamond, 8, or 3 turn card. I am confident he'll bet any turn card.
What is your line vs. a maniac that has position on me and is running 70/23/3 over about 50 hands. Villain has been on a heater and getting paid by using his image, putting it all in with 2nd pair or any draw on flop. Am I a nit to fold to the 3? What is the play as played? Call and re-evaluate. He is liable to put it all in on river with air, but how would I know?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($19.65)
UTG ($9.75)
MP ($31.85)
Button ($3.05)
Hero ($9.80)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
2 folds, Button calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.5, BB calls $0.40, Button folds.

Flop: ($1.10) 5, 7, 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.9, BB raises to $1.8, Hero calls $0.90.

Turn: ($4.70) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, BB bets $1.7, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $6.40

[IowaSkinsFan]

you realize besides a 2 and a 9 that's your best turn, as you pointed out. I probably just fold the flop, at best your a slight underdog.

[Chopper]

maybe make this one a poll with some choices? lots of lines that i can see.

push, psb, check/call, check/fold, etc.

i like your read (finally a bit of a thought process), too, a bit better than the standard..."i have PT, and these are the only numbers i look at..." read...lol.

oh, i vote c/r the flop to whatever the pot becomes after he leads.

[ShowMeAtlas]

Against someone with those stats I'm pumping the flop and trying to get all in.

[Silly String]

Any other suggestions? Just 3bet flop and roll with 99. I he has 2 diamonds then gg?

[Chopper]

hes so lag, that i think the play is to "take your chances" with the flush here. i hope he doesnt have a fourth diamond.

thats why i c/r to the pot, and dont push all in. i would try to leave room for him to still come over. i think you still get the same FE against a LAG w/ the psr as you would with a straight out push.

can i get away from this if he comes over my c/r? maybe not, i think he may still push any diamond for the four-flush.

my goal is to fold him off as cheaply as possible...while still realizing my hand is vulnerable. and remember, most LAGs dont like resistance. if you make the raise smaller than a shove, he may give YOU credit for the flush. it may look to him like a value-type bet.

[Silly String]

Then what happens when fourth diamond hits the turn and I have to c/f. If I raise it is going to be all in right here on the flop.

[Chopper]

why not check fold when the fourth diamond hits? what the hell is wrong with that? if you push on the flop and the 4th diamond hits...you lose your whole stack, right?

at least by not pushing, you save a bit, and possibly still win the whole thing when the 4th d doesnt hit.

dont give away the farm on such a speculative holding, especially into a guy this Laggy that you cannot effectively put into any range.

yes, you are likely ahead on the flop, but you are likely to be BEHIND by the river, too. dont push here. just send your message on the flop, and see what villain does.

what happens to your psyche if the T+ hits w/ no d after you push this flop? and he shows you he was chasing overs? would that tilt you? it shouldnt. its VERY likely to happen still.

but by sending a message with a normal raise, you leave yourself an opening depending on the turn. if it hits lower than 9...then shove the rest and take your chances on ONE card...not two.

part of a win rate is avoiding big losses, too. not just pushing every "vulnerable" edge you have.

[litetruck]

part of a win rate is avoiding big losses, too. not just pushing every "vulnerable" edge you have.

Ding!

[Fnord]

Why are we betting the flop?

[Chopper]

Why are we betting the flop?

because villain is LAG. and we know if we dont, he will. however, it is likely we are ahead here, and if properly repped, we likely win it here. that is, if we want to win THIS hand. not that we have to pick our spot here.

if we are ok letting this one go (b/c of being a very marginal situation), we should check/fold here anyway.

but i didnt think OP wanted advice on dropping a hand against a LAG, i thought he was asking for the best way to win THIS one.