why stats don't say much...i think

[|~|ypermegachi]

i've been datamining FT like hell lately (haven't played on it, since there are better bonuses elsewhere right now)

anyways, this guy has pretty tag-like stats, but he's on a 17 buyin downswing. at first glance, i can't see anything wrong. maybe you guys can see something i'm not...

[|~|ypermegachi]

ok, and to dispel any theories of mega tilt. check out this graph of the sample.

[Benoso]

First thing I notice is his/her attempts to steal blinds is a little low.

Minor point, but you asked. My Att to Steal is more like 45-55%

[bode]

im pretty sure a normal att. to steal blinds is around 30%.

[Halv]

Sample size. bb/100 is utterly useless after 5000 hands. This doesn't mean that a 5k hand sample is useless, as a lot of other stats converge more quickly. Ie a 25VPIP guy will not be a 50VPIP guy long term if you've seen 5k hands, but a -10bb/100 guy could easily be +bb/100 long term.

[swiggidy]

He's more aggressive on the flop than I am. So maybe he builds big pots, then when he calls down he's loosing a stack?

That may be causation by correlation.

[jyms]

he's folding the river alot. His went to showdown is a little low. I think his hand reading is a little poor. He is losing showdowns too often. I think he's taking the wrong hands and playing the wrong pots to showdown as well. It can be as simple as "Big pots big hands, small pots small hands."

[|~|ypermegachi]

hmmm, i'm slightly worried now, because my fold river and flop aggression is pretty similar to this guy. i do steal more tho (currently at 33%).

anyways, i'm looking into his losing hands right now. and there are quite a few coolers in here, but there are some pretty bad ones. like...really bad.

if the guy ever finds this thread, here's what you're doing wrong:

- overpairs and TPGK are not always the nuts, so stop openpushing the flop with them. likewise, quit calling allins on the turn with them.
- quit 3-barrel bluffing with nothing. if they called 2, they're calling the 3rd 99% of the time.

maybe this guy's a bot. he pushes every overpair. well at least people can't min-min-re-re-raise him.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

his W$@SD is 43%, he's running bad.

But stats don't say much anyway, you're right. Analyze hands and not statistics. If you can't figure out what's wrong with your hands you can go to stats.

[sauce123]

hes running real bad- i could show u similar sets of 5k hands where I lose as much as fast with similar stats

[Alexos]

hmmm, i just realized i fold rivers 71% of the time during my current stretch of 30k hands.....I play TAG 20/16

Major leak? Can ppl post some river folds %?

[|~|ypermegachi]

hmmm, i just realized i fold rivers 71% of the time during my current stretch of 30k hands.....I play TAG 20/16

Major leak? Can ppl post some river folds %?

yeah, that's a pretty big leak i think. you're folding a lot of winners. or maybe likewise you're not betting enough to fold out others who would have bet if you checked. i'm currently running around low 60% folding to river bet. but it's a small sample and i'm still learning NL so it probably doesn't mean much.

[IowaSkinsFan]

the guy has a 43% W$@SD nuff said.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

hmmm, i just realized i fold rivers 71% of the time during my current stretch of 30k hands.....I play TAG 20/16

Major leak? Can ppl post some river folds %?

mines 71% too but i'm also running bad. This is a 53k hand sample.

[swiggidy]

the guy has a 43% W$@SD nuff said.

Please explain briefly

[Fnord]

Running bad in difficult games.

[|~|ypermegachi]

Playing bad in difficult games.

FYP

[sauce123]

Playing bad in difficult games.

FYP

This is such a misinformed statement. This player has no glaring preflop leaks and has an unnaturally low win $ SD over a small sample of hands in a relatively high variance game. This player could be anywhere from a -1 PT bb/100 loser to a 10 PT bb/100 winner with these stats...