A few hands from today (200NL)

[I Like Pie]

Can I get away from this hand at any point? No real reads on the guy, has TAGish stats over a small sample size. The small 4-bet had my worried but can I fold AKs to that? Villain had AA.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($261.05)
UTG ($213.78)
MP ($145.03)
CO ($232.70)
Button ($224.40)
SB ($120.60)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
UTG raises to $6, 4 folds, Hero raises to $24, UTG raises to $46, Hero calls $21.

Flop: ($93) K, 8, A (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $64, Hero calls $259.05 (All-In), UTG calls $213.78 (All-In).

Turn: ($611.10) 2 (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: ($611.10) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: $611.11

New guy to the table and no stats.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP ($197)
Button ($422)
SB ($196.60)
BB ($194)
Hero ($283)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, K.
Hero raises to $8, MP raises to $21, 3 folds, Hero calls $13.

Flop: ($45) 8, A, K (2 players)
Hero bets $43, MP calls $43.

Turn: ($131) 9 (2 players)
Hero...

This guy was running 43/21/4. Seems like kind of a donk. This suicide on the turn or a good play?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($269)
BB ($208)
UTG ($282.83)
MP ($196.50)
CO ($200)
Hero ($268)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($19) A, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero raises to $36, UTG calls $24.

Turn: ($91) J (2 players)
UTG bets $25, Hero raises to $74

[mixchange]

Hand 1 - glad to be AI with top 2

Hand 2 - I suspect mr donk and loose was seeking his flush with a Q or J. At any rate, I don't see how he calls flop without a heart. I check hoping he checks so we can hit out 4 outer. otherwise i fold to any sizable bet

Hand 3 - I dont like this because you are drawing dead to any hand that calls you. I don't see why UTG calls flop and leads tun w/o a spade. Maybe this works but its a marginal area without a lot of potential benefit.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Hand 1: fold to fourbet unless he's an uber fish
Hand 2: I just check push the flop but as played i check/fold the turn unless it a super small bet.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Hand 1: fold to fourbet unless he's an uber fish
Hand 2: I just check push the flop but as played i check/fold the turn unless it a super small bet.
Hand 3: I actually like this.

[snowbird4life]

1)I dont know how you can fold top two here. Although this screams of aa/kk and really unless he was donking around it doesn't seem like it could be anything else, do you seriously fold this? It is just so rare to have a flopped top two beaten by a flopped set that i think i felt this. Anyone with a huge database like 100k+, im just curious, how many times has your flopped top two been beaten by a set in 6 max? It would be interesting to know because i think this is just soooo rare, that even with the betting that screams aa/kk, i still felt this. Also, isf made a good point about folding to the 4 bet preflop, and i think i usually would fold to a 4 bet, but he like min raised you to 4 bet, so i prolly call.

2)I dont mind a bet/fold here too much. Otherwise your going to have to check/fold, and pray he gives you a free card to hit your 4 outer. Also, what isf said sounds okay to me, check/raise here on the flop doesn't seem too bad of a move.

3) I like it, i think unless he has a high spade here, you usually take this one down. Seems like hes donking around and cant give up his ace or is just two barreling trash.

[I Like Pie]

Hand 3 had a odd result actually.
I didn't want to test my luck again on the river.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($269)
BB ($208)
UTG ($282.83)
MP ($196.50)
CO ($200)
Hero ($268)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($19) A, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero raises to $36, UTG calls $24.

Turn: ($91) J (2 players)
UTG bets $25, Hero raises to $74, UTG calls $49.

River: ($239) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $239

Results below:
UTG has Qh 8c (flush, ace high).
Hero has Kc Ah (flush, ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins $119.50. Hero wins $119.50.

[Vi-Zer0Skill]

Hand 3 had a odd result actually.
I didn't want to test my luck again on the river.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($269)
BB ($208)
UTG ($282.83)
MP ($196.50)
CO ($200)
Hero ($268)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, A.
UTG calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, UTG calls $6.

Flop: ($19) A, 8, Q (2 players)
UTG bets $12, Hero raises to $36, UTG calls $24.

Turn: ($91) J (2 players)
UTG bets $25, Hero raises to $74, UTG calls $49.

River: ($239) 5 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: $239

Results below:
UTG has Qh 8c (flush, ace high).
Hero has Kc Ah (flush, ace high).
Outcome: UTG wins $119.50. Hero wins $119.50.

There is $240 in the pot. I think villain could be holding 9s-x/10s-x once we come to the river. Most players would shove the river with a nut hand, although i have run into tricky players at 200NL. IMO a bet close to AI looks really strong and has a positive expectation. Let's say his range is: Ks-x 25%, 10s-x/9s-x 65%, two pair/set 10%.

We can never get him to fold the nut flush, we can get him to fold 10s-x/9s-x 75%, and the two pair/set 100%. So we can get him to fold 60% of his range to a river bet and we only have to bet 2/3rds of the pot. Seems +EV to me, though my range estimates could easily be wrong. Also this is a pretty high variance play and if you don't have a huge BR for your limit passing on this play is even more reasonable. Even if he only folds 10s-x/9s-x 50% of the time, the play has a slight positive expectation although it is close.

[mixchange]

you HAVE to bet that river with the 5 spades out if he checks to you. Anyone with a good spade bets and you are likely to get a fold here, especially since you re-raised turn.

[I Like Pie]

The reason is that I thought that this guy was bad (see limping Q8o UTG then calling a raise) and he'd call regardless. This guy could easily have had something like Ax7s and call my river bet.