50nl: turned straight, min 3bet

[BeeJall]

This is my 3rd hand at the table, the bb is 13/10 over 90 hands

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (7 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($49.80)
SB ($49.75)
BB ($52.25)
UTG ($65.35)
MP1 ($29.65)
MP2 ($52.25)
Hero ($50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 4.
3 folds, Hero raises to $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 3, 2, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3.

Turn: ($10.25) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $3, Hero raises to $9, BB raises to $15, Hero ?

[gingerwizard]

either: push
or: flat called and push over his turn bet.

Not sure too many scare cards on the turn so you'll likely extract more if he's just testing you.

[Miffed22001]

call, then push over river bet

[BeeJall]

call, then push over river bet

and if he pushes river, easy call?

what types of hands do you put him on to just call the cbet and then lead/3bet the turn?

[Pants_101]

what types of hands do you put him on to just call the cbet and then lead/3bet the turn?

By the turn I'd put him on 22, 33, 55, A2s, AA. So do we really want to get all in here? Assuming my range is any good. I supose there might be more big pairs in there if he's really aggro. Is there any point looking at the distribution of these hands and adding up the + and - ev? Not sure my maths is up to it

Hands Combinations Probability
22 1 7.1%
33 3 21.4%
55 3 21.4%
A2s 4 28.5%
AA 3 21.4%

So at this point in the hand the pot is $37, the villain has $29 left and we can assume he will call a push. So you bet $34 and he calls his last $29. Pot is $100. Lets say you always lose to 22, 33, 55 and always win against A2s, AA (weak of me I know) so 50% you lose $34 for -$17 and 50% you win $71 (is is right not to include your bet?) for $35.5 so your ev is $17? Does that make any sense at all or am I completely hopelessly clueless at maths and poker? Ginger?

[Miffed22001]

call, then push over river bet

and if he pushes river, easy call?

what types of hands do you put him on to just call the cbet and then lead/3bet the turn?

On stars im going to assume he isnt going to spew 3bet here with 88. SO AA has to be factored in and so do boats. Having said that he can have a draw or just bare trips or even the same hand as us.
When i factored a quick range into pokerstove were commited to a big pot anyway so i think i 'gambOOl on river and hope that trips will make really bad river call versus our strength.
If you dont think trips are getting it in then you call the 3bet on turn and consider you river options if you only think he does this with straight/boat.
As opp is defending his blind its pretty high probability he defended with Ax and either has a draw+pair/trips or plain has trips A kicker and wants to felt. If he bets river with trips he cant fold anyways i dont think.

Cliff notes: call a push or push river.

[bode]

On stars im going to assume he isnt going to spew 3bet here with 88.

dont assume this. I play in these games and there are plenty of people that would spew their whole stack w/ 66-99. I think he shows up w/ a set here occaisionally, but overpairs make up a decent portion of his range.

[BeeJall]

Am I right that I need to be good a bit more than 35% of the time to make this a profitable shove if I'm pretty sure he'll call?

The only reason I have so much trouble with this hand is because villain is so tight and it doesn't seem like he'd stack off here with a worse hand unless it was exactly A2.

[Pants_101]

Right I got some info in front of me and I'm going to try and work out the ev of pushing against several ranges. For my own interest if nothing else. Given the 3 bet on the turn I will assume a push will be called by any hand in villain's range.

First up BeeJall's pessimistic range:

22, 33, 55, A2s

The push will be called so the pot is effectively $66 with hero betting $36 to win it. Rather then calculating the amount won and the amount lost I will simplify the calculation and consider the ev with hero's bet added to the pot and say the amount lost when beaten is 0. This removes all terms with losing situations as multiplying by zero gives zero. So the pot is $102

HAND............Combinations..........%(win)
22....................... 1 ....................... 0/44 (no cards can come to save us)
33....................... 3 ....................... 0/44
55....................... 3 ....................... 0/44
A2s..................... 3 ....................... 32/44 (9 cards beat us)
but with A2 there are ties possible the %(tie) is 3/44

So we have 10 combinations of hands and we can ignore all but A2 as they are returning zero.

(3/10)(32/44)($102)+(3/10)(3/44)($51) = $23 We had to bet $36 so our ev against this range is $-13
Anyone want to disagree? Please feel free to point out mistakes.

So what about a more favourable range? I'll add AA and A4. I struggle to see any draws that would play like this so I'll ignore 45 or 46.

HAND............Combinations..........%(win)...... ..%(tie)
22....................... 1 ....................... 0/44 ........ 0/44
33....................... 3 ....................... 0/44 ........ 0/44
55....................... 3 ....................... 0/44 ........ 0/44
AA...................... 3 ....................... 38/44 ...... 3/44
A2s..................... 3 ....................... 32/44 ...... 3/44
A4...................... 9 ....................... 0/44 ........ 44/44

So (3/22)(38/44)($102)+(3/22)(3/44)($51)+(3/22)(32/44)($102)+(3/22)(3/44)($51)+(9/22)(44/44)($51) = $44. Subtract our bet and the EV is $8

So adding AA adds about $10 to our EV whilst A4 increases it by about $20! Add more overpairs to villain and EV rises accordingly. Well I found that useful and interesting to do, sorry if I've bored you senseless. Anyone see mistakes please point them out.