value raise or stoopid

[Chopper]

villain is SLAA and very A. thought i could slow play the set, but the board got scarier and scarier. thought i'd take a chance, as i always showed the nuts on this table.

against an aggressive villain, is this a spot to value raise your set? or was this just a c/call spot because of the board?

sorry hand converter not working at the moment for AP.

STAGE #728932242: HOLDEM NO LIMIT $0.25 - 2007-08-08 00:28:01 (ET)
Table: MALI HWY (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 4 - WV0610 ($25.10 in chips)
Seat 1 - DOCDON52637 ($20.25 in chips)
Seat 2 - CHIPSPIT ($30.95 in chips)
Seat 3 - BNWFREAK ($40.35 in chips)
DOCDON52637 - Posts small blind $0.10
CHIPSPIT - Posts big blind $0.25
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to CHIPSPIT [9d 9c]
BNWFREAK - Raises $1 to $1
WV0610 - Folds
DOCDON52637 - Folds
CHIPSPIT - Calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Kc 9s Ah]
CHIPSPIT - Checks
BNWFREAK - Bets $0.75
CHIPSPIT - Calls $0.75
*** TURN *** [Kc 9s Ah] [Jd]
CHIPSPIT - Checks
BNWFREAK - Bets $1.50
CHIPSPIT - Calls $1.50
*** RIVER *** [Kc 9s Ah Jd] [8s]
CHIPSPIT - Checks
BNWFREAK - Bets $4.50
CHIPSPIT - Raises $9 to $9
BNWFREAK - Calls $4.50

what do we suppose he is calling with, instead of raising? btw, he was almost timed off. he thought forever.

[pgil]

I think his bets are far too small to think about slowplaying here. He is betting less than half the pot on the flop, and that is not going to build pot fast enough.

As played, he can call with an awful lot of A's/2 pair hands. The 8 isn't really that much of a scare card for me here.

[Chopper]

so, you are saying that the raise is for "value," here and most likely good against the way he played the hand so far?

[Knytestorme]

Well I know the result of this hand but I agree with pgil.

On the flop he bets $0.75 into a $2.25 pot which is showing some weakness here but he has raised pre so you can put him on something decent most likley. You are only behind to AA/KK and more likely up against either a steal or AK/AQ/AJ.

The weak flop bet could be AK looking for you to raise the weakness and get more in or it could be AQ/AJ seeing where they are at....With a set here that figures to be the best most of the time I'm likely raising here to $2.50.

On the turn, as played, he again only bets 1/3 pot after your check and I have the same reasoning as before though now you could be behind to QT or JJ as well so I most likely just call here but be unhappy about it.

On the river you are still behind to the hands you were behind to on the turn, the 8 changes nothing here really since you most likely wouldn't have kept going with T7 the way the hand has played out, so the only reasonable straight you would have had would be QT and that would give rise to a check/raise on the turn to take away the odds for any set or two pair to draw to the boat.

The only way you can make this raise is if you still think your set is good and if that's the case then a min-raise isn't getting value really. I'd likely just call here as you are in a wa/wb situation and only getting called when behind really.

I'd probably have looked to getting it in on the flop due to the most likely being ahead at the time, rather than slowplaying it, but I guess a case can be made for waiting till the river to make sure the A or K didn't pair to give him likely a better boat...I just think if you were really raising that river for value, you should have started on earlier streets.

[euphoricism]

We have a short-handed forum. You'll get more responses there.

[Chopper]

would you be so kind as to move it, or should i repost?


and btw, this is a leak of mine...i like to bet when the only hand that calls is way ahead of me.

i had him on something i had crushed. but, left room for him to push over with QT. i would fold to any 3bet river. dont get into the odds of the river call, if he did raise over. to me, you still need to use your head in that situation, and the only push is QT or a huge bluff, and the chances of a bluff are very minimal.

and, i believe the value comes on earlier streets, too. but, the river raise IS for value. if you feel you are ahead, you offer up a small bet/raise that cannot be refused...that is a value bet...and that is what a minraise does here. and by waiting so long, the minraise does not show much strength...it just looks stoopid to the guy who has been betting the whole time, and the only thing i think that refuses the river minraise is TP.

[Knytestorme]

you make a good point there about the raise being a value-bet if you think you are ahead so I'll semi-retract what I said about the river

You are correct in the fact your hand is pretty well disguised there but I still think you would be better off with a c/r on the turn to try and get some extra value and see where you are at before the river gets a little expensive. If you c/r to $4 on the turn you can see if the Q made his straight or if you are behind in another fashion as a 3-bet here by him shows massive strength (saving you $5 but missing out on the potential $9 that comes on the river) and if he just calls then you can look to value-bet the river rather than c/c OR check to him and if he still bets the river you can assume you are still behind.

As I said though, I really prefer to get it in early at the moment for some reason (probably gotten drawn out on too much lately) so take my opinion here with a grain of salt.

[pgil]

so, you are saying that the raise is for "value," here and most likely good against the way he played the hand so far?

pretty well. I think he can call with a lot of hands that you beat.

[Da GOAT]

OMG just raise it up on flop!!!!!!!!!! An aggro player can shove on you here anyway.

I hate the slowplay line

[Chopper]

you make a good point there about the raise being a value-bet if you think you are ahead so I'll semi-retract what I said about the river

You are correct in the fact your hand is pretty well disguised there but I still think you would be better off with a c/r on the turn to try and get some extra value and see where you are at before the river gets a little expensive. If you c/r to $4 on the turn you can see if the Q made his straight or if you are behind in another fashion as a 3-bet here by him shows massive strength (saving you $5 but missing out on the potential $9 that comes on the river) and if he just calls then you can look to value-bet the river rather than c/c OR check to him and if he still bets the river you can assume you are still behind.

As I said though, I really prefer to get it in early at the moment for some reason (probably gotten drawn out on too much lately) so take my opinion here with a grain of salt.

i typically want to get it in asap, too. but here, against THIS villain, i wanted him to continue pushing me off the pot. and if i raise the turn, it absolutely looks like i have QT, and he may dump...taking away any spew he is willing to commit on the river, when i can raise.

i am taking a HUGE gamble here, and i dont do it often, and i know i am giving a lot of opportunities for the suckout, and may pay dearly...but against such an aggro, i take these shots every so often...and win or lose, they earn a TON of free cards the rest of the time i sit at the table.

that saves me money against tougher aggros.

[Rondavu]

You bet out into the preflop raiser because the flop has an ace and a king on it, which is very likely to hit a preflop raisers range very hard. This flop holding 99 is what is referred to as a "hidden" set.

[martindcx1e]

You bet out into the preflop raiser because the flop has an ace and a king on it, which is very likely to hit a preflop raisers range very hard. This flop holding 99 is what is referred to as a "hidden" set.

Yes! Why oh why did you check/call?

[Chopper]

i already told you guys why i c/c the flop...because he was so aggro, i figured he missed that flop, and would fold...KNOWING that i will only play back at him with the A. his pfr range was soooo wide, i had no reason to believe he had either an A or a K, let alone both...therefore, he would be afraid of a bet out of me, knowing i dont call pfr's with crap, but DO fold them a lot when i miss.

my call looked weak...or like a monster ... to him, and he bet so soft, i figured him to be "tapping the glass" like an aggro tends to do on scary boards.

i figured the only way to get him to keep spending his money was to check again.

my only fear was that he woke up with an actual hand...but against an aggro, i take that chance with a set.

[mixchange]

bet flop, c/r turn, lead river

[Chopper]

i see that i WAS supposed to be more aggressive here, but this time...

IT SAVED ME $$.

he had KK!!!

how he didnt get my stack, i'll never know, but he did get all of yours...

i dont mean that to sound like i'm some sort of great hand reader...i was trying to set HIM up, and somehow i got off cheap.

if i play that the way i usually play a set, i get my clock cleaned, too.

thats why i posted the topic. i wanted to see how you all played it, or what your reads were. i had him on TP or 2 pair, but feared QT, which is why i only minraised the river, expecting a shove over with QT, which i could then fold. but, i was almost certain i had him when he only called.

and about fell out of my chair/sofa when he showed KK.

many thanks.

[Jack Sawyer]

OMG just raise it up on flop!!!!!!!!!! An aggro player can shove on you here anyway.

I hate the slowplay line

QFT

If he's really superloose like OP said, you can easily overbet flop here no problemo

basically against a superloose aggro aggro i become a raising station when I have half a hand