Rivered straight facing massive push; BvB & deep

[Ash256]

Villain seems to be a reasonably aggressive multitabling TAG who likes to get tricky with floats and 2barrels every so often (But far from always). He doubled up earlier when a floated PP hit a set on the turn vs. an idiot's top pair. He's 17/14/2.4 or so over ~100 hands. I've been playing quiet TAG, I haven't done anything out of line.



Seat 1: kumite76 ($41.75 in chips) DEALER
Seat 3: Villain ($119.59 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero ($130.57 in chips)
Seat 8: sanspade ($44.38 in chips)
Seat 10: Juwel79 ($12.00 in chips)
Villain: Post SB $0.25
Hero: Post BB $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [:Qd: :Kd:]
2 folds
Villain: Raise $2.25
Hero: Call $2.00


*** FLOP *** [ :Ts: :Kc:]
Villain: Bet $4.00
Hero: Call $4.00


*** TURN *** []
Villain: Bet $11.00
Hero: Call $11.00


*** RIVER *** [:Jd:]
Villain: Allin $102.09
Hero goes wtf?

[Warpe]

raise flop?

[Kagey]

I think I almost always fold here I don't believe he's firing enough without a Q or AQ. He surely isn't doing this with 2 pair or a busted draw. Looks like some kind of stack -a-donk line to me.

Anyway why no reraise on the turn?

[Pelion]

no way he doesnt have at least a Q here.

You're risking $100 to win $15.

You need to be splitting 87% of the time to call.

AQ,KQ,QQ,QJ,Q9,Q8. All probably raise preflop and bet the flop alot. The turn filters alot out of his range though. Id say only

A Q, KQ, QJ.

Will get there on the river to shove. A Q has one combination. KQ has 6. QJ has 6. So we are splitting 12/13 of the time which is 92%. If he shoves KQ/QJ every time then we can call.

BUT will he shove every time with KQ / QJ here? If he shoves AQs every time here then he needs to shove KQ/QJ 94% of the time which is probably not going to happen. Id expect him to overbet shove AQ most of the time, and usually make a smaller value bet with just a Q. If hes not even shoving KQ 50% then its a pretty clear fold.

[ChrisTheFish]

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

[WildBobAA]

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

[Pelion]

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

yea id shove it

[griffey24]

This is one of those spots where donks shove the nuts, hoping to get called by the 2nd nuts. I'd muck it.

Shoving the nuts here is actually a pretty good play.

yea id shove it

Whats a better play though. Shoving or check/shoving? I think its safe to assume that hero would value bet a Q if checked to in this spot.

Check/shoving gets more value out of a bare Q who might fold to a shove and any missed draw that might try to steal.

[Pelion]

good point. check/shoving looks better

[sauce123]

this is v close