set against a nit.. but he's raising!.. Deep

[griffey24]

-Villain is a nit and runs about 12/9 and his AF is 1.65
-when he calls my flop raise, I'd imagine his range is JJ+, AK/AQs. I don't think JT is in his range
-I don't know if he'd raise a bare Q here, I've rarely seen him raise Post flop so I don't know his raising range at all. His turn AF is 0.86

Cryptologic
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$5
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $527
UTG+1: $1157.05
CO: $839.55
Button: $528
SB: $87.65
Hero: $2126.75

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with
2 folds, CO raises to $20, 2 folds, Hero calls $15 (pot was $27).

Flop: ($42, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $30, Hero raises to $88, CO calls.

Turn: ($218, 2 players)
Hero bets $150, CO raises to $375, Hero ?? <-- #360ish behind if I just call

[Silly String]

I don't see how we could fold as it would be hard to put a nit on 56s here. I get it all in on the turn, and hope for AQs although it looks like QQ might have just sucked out. If it's 99 then GG Mr. Nit.

[gabe]

i hate your flop raise size..

[griffey24]

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

[Miffed22001]

surely your turn bet is to entice a raise so we can push right? and opp cant fold anything significant...

[Genitruc]

sux if he has QQ but that's all you're worried about.

This can be AA KK looking to get it in on non-spade turns

Very very very close imo. If I continue, I just get it in cuz there's a Q on board (and in his mind the Q is a blank for AA/KK)

[Fnord]

JTs, 99 and 55 are all reaonable holdings.

[Ravageur]

Yeah I think a raise to 120$ on flops like these is better so you can do everything you can to get it in on the flop (Is he ever folding AA/KK no matter how much you raise the flop???). As played you just have to bet/call the turn. You're probably beat but you, sir, have a set.

[gabe]

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

it gives away your hand...

[bigspenda73]

ahahahahah didnt even notice that

[Robb]

i hate your flop raise size..

I'm assuming you mean, make it bigger...110ish?

it gives away your hand...

I would like to see a pot-sized rr on the flop (about $70 + the $30 he's got in already). Flush + inside str8 draw is about the best hand he can have. Any made hand is a dog (i just can't see T6 or 64). Pot raise does not give him odds for a call.

The way you played it, he missed his draw on the turn. He looks like a big pair to me. I'm tossing in a pot-sized raise. I pay off QQ. I'm pushing here, all-in rr against any action.

[will641]

i think he would still raise AA KK and AsQs, which is still in his range.

[sauce123]

120, 210, shove/callshove

[gabe]

why dont you think JT is in his range

and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop

[martindcx1e]

gabe you are too deep for us

[benny999]

lol at '88' bet. also, raise more to rep a draw, build pot, etc.
im also stacking off on the turn but not looking forward to showdown too much.

[Robb]

why dont you think JT is in his range

and i was talking about raising to '88' on the flop

My understanding was that he's tight. Am I reading the "nit 12/9" wrong? I thought this was PokerTracker's VP$P / PreFlop Raise. If that's the case, he's only raising 9% of his hands, and that (for me) means no raises on JTs, even in the cutoff. Did I misunderstand the 12/9 stat?

The overall aggression factor of 1.5 is almost worrying, but I would think his chance of being in with a JT is less than 5%. If he has JT, I'm stacking off. If he has QQ, I'm stacking off. I think he has a flush draw, and I'm pushing to not give him odds to hit it. I think in 90% of his likely range, I'm either ahead or way ahead.

But maybe I'm missing something? I am a relatively new player, so I could certainly be wrong here.

[gabe]

yea his average pfr is 9%, but since its an average the CO and button positions are going to be higher than 9 because they are the best positions for raising

[griffey24]

Upon further thinking, I agree that I should have also put JT in his range.

So given that, we're adding even more hands in his range that I'm behind, though I still agree with most of you that i'm pushing here. But im mostly pushing here cause "I have a set.. if you have me beat.. then cooler.. gg"... definitely no fist pumping going on as I pushed.

We're 170bb's deep here, how deep would people have to be to ACTUALLY consider folding on this turn?

[benny999]

this is enough bb's to fold it imo, but i would need to know more than his turn AF to fold..like he wouldn't semibluff there or over play AA/KK.