OESFD Played badly?

[Clar17y]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($47.98)
BB ($12.75)
UTG ($25.60)
MP ($13.76)
Hero ($51.90)
Button ($24.65)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 7.
UTG raises to $1, MP calls $1, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, SB raises to $4, 1 fold, UTG folds, MP calls $3, Hero calls $3.

Flop: ($13.25) 2, 8, 4 (3 players)
SB bets $7, MP folds, Hero calls $7.

Turn: ($27.25) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $20.
Hero?

Final Pot: $27.25

I called pre because of the great pot size and potential of suited connectors with hope of hitting a big flop. Hit a mediocre one and called the $7 into a $13.25 pot because i think if checked to when the flush came he'd bet it, giving me some implied odds.
Now the 6 comes on the turn, we know he has KK+ and is scared... is this a push/fold/call?
With $16.50 behind is calling ok?

Pot = $27.25, but if we hit we most probably get what he has left = $16.50. Calling $20 to win $43.75, with a 32% chance to hit straight or flush.
That's basically breaking even right? lol or just +ev? Folding flop/turn better? oO

Thanks,
Clar

[zook]

Everything looks good, now just call turn. You're a 2:1 dog and you're getting pot odds of over 2:1. Plus you almost definitely have implied odds too.

[will641]

call.

[Clar17y]

Thanks guys i was wondering if my reasoning made sense or if anyone would've opted for a fold pre/on the flop etc.

I made the call and didn't hit so check/folded lol

Clar

[bode]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

[Deanglow]

Yeah I agree with bode. Raising/calling the turn both seem pretty bad. I think folding>calling>raising

[kmind]

He has the pot odds plus most likely the extra $16 if he hits, why is this a fold?

[zook]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

It's a call for pot odds alone, even if villain open fold any river that hits hero. No reason to raise turn because villain is probably never folding.

[bode]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

It's a call for pot odds alone, even if villain open fold any river that hits hero. No reason to raise turn because villain is probably never folding.

yeah, i know its a call from a math perspective, it just seems weird calling off 2/3 of our stack on a draw like this with minimal implied odds.

[Halv]

I don't think I get what you're trying to say, bode. When pot odds alone dictate a call we should have a big fat smile on our face when we have implied odds as well.

[bigspenda73]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

[givememyleg]

folding seems silly, its like the exact price against a big pair, maybe even a bit better... just call and push if you hit or fold if you miss

[Chopper]

boy, i thought i had this shit down, but i dont see a couple of things here... if i may...

1) hero has 14ish outs X 2 = 28%, or 30% so, where are we getting 2:1? i got 3:1.

2) if we pstove it against a random hand ( i know we have a range here, but that would only make our equity worse since we are likely behind any range that bets this hard.), we get a 40% equity, well, 42% but thats picky.

if we have 40%, cant we only call $11ish? doesnt that make $20 a bad call, on pot odds alone?

please correct my "pot odds/outs" math, if i am wrong. i may not be seeing clearly tonight. maybe you are including the 9 as TP outs? i wouldnt, but maybe that makes it 2:1?


i understand why we "should" call this with the implieds (he isnt folding on river if we hit). if we calculate those in we get the extra $16. that makes it calling $36 to make $100. thats better than 3:1, so thats an easy call.

[bigspenda73]

lol

15 outs, 45 cards left, we hit 1 out of every 3 times, meaning 2:1 odds.

He bets less than pot, meaning we are getting more than 2:1 to call.

[Chopper]

JESUS....duh. thank you.

bartender, make the next one a double.

[Halv]

We're calling 20$ to win what will be a 67$ pot (the 27$ in the pot + his 20$ bet + our 20$ call), this means we have to win 20/67 ~= 29.7% of the time to break even.

If we win the extra 16$ every time, we're calling 20$ to win 67$+16$ (we never put in our 16$ if we lose), so we need 20/83 ~= 24.1%.

Edit: or what spenda said, lol I type slow.

[Halv]

Someone should do some math on how our equity is affected by the times he's got AsKs or a set, though. Shouldn't this make it a fold if there were no implied?

[bigspenda73]

a set only kills two of our outs still making this a call w/o implied odds really, but he's never folding on the end so we don't have to worry about that.

Also, at 50nl he rarely(pretty much never) has the bigger flush draw here.

[Halv]

Though it only kills two outs (which actually makes the call slightly -EV if there were no more chips left, and the ever so occasional higher FD makes it a little bit more so) we must also consider that we lose our last 16$ whenever that happens.

It's still a call, but I think it's closer than it appears. I'm not enough of a math person to do the EV calcs, though.

[Clar17y]

lol yeah what those guys said...

With that many outs if he bets less than the pot i have the odds to call especially if i can get the rest of his stack, i think.
Shame i didn't hit and had to fold tho was a nice pot lol

What about pre-flop and on the flop? Are those calls ok, or would you guys just lay it down?

Clar

[lolzzz_321]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

classless

[Jack Sawyer]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

classless

[bigspenda73]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

classless

I'll stop making sarcastic biting posts when people stop making poor, incorrect posts.

[jackvance]

I did some quick math. I'm ignoring the extra $16, just an EV calculation on pot odds to call the $20.

We have to call $20 to win $67 so 30% to call

Our chance to win vs 4 types of hands our opponent can have:
vs AdAc 40% to win (top pair or overpair with no club)
vs AsAd 34% to win (overpair with club)
vs AsKs 20% to win (overcards flushdraw)
vs 2c2d 27% to win (set)

So let's say his range is 50% overpair with no club (or a pair), 20% overpair with a club, 20% overcards with flush draw, 10% a set.. then we get a weighted 35% to win. So we still have odds to call.

To include the $16, we have to calculate all the scenarios where you'd win it, etc.. cba to do that now :P

[givememyleg]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

classless

I'll stop making sarcastic biting posts when people stop making poor, incorrect posts.

let me just apologize for the whole forum for not playing as well as you

[badgers]

Look at spendas avatar. How can you stay mad at him?

[Clar17y]

I did some quick math. I'm ignoring the extra $16, just an EV calculation on pot odds to call the $20.

We have to call $20 to win $67 so 30% to call

Our chance to win vs 4 types of hands our opponent can have:
vs AdAc 40% to win (top pair or overpair with no club)
vs AsAd 34% to win (overpair with club)
vs AsKs 20% to win (overcards flushdraw)
vs 2c2d 27% to win (set)

So let's say his range is 50% overpair with no club (or a pair), 20% overpair with a club, 20% overcards with flush draw, 10% a set.. then we get a weighted 35% to win. So we still have odds to call.

To include the $16, we have to calculate all the scenarios where you'd win it, etc.. cba to do that now :P

Ok i don't understand your post at all. First of all there are 2 spades on the board, not clubs. So a club or a spade doesn't help villain unless he has a higher flush draw, and i don't think he'd be firing $20 as a semi-bluff...
He's definitely playing it like KK+ or perhaps a set.
The odds for to call the turn if we know we're getting no more on the river are only just there, but still correct enough to call.
Thus with the money he has left behind, it's a call.

I'm assuming that these calls are correct because even if we break even in the long run, always folding would be -ev due to the money we put in the pot to begin with?

Clar

[grnydrowave2]

Clar, don't forget to include villain's bet when making these calculations. The pot is not $27.25 on the turn, it's $47.25. So yeah, better than 2:1, and with implied odds better than 3:1.

It's a shame you didn't hit, but it was definitely +EV. NH.

[Miffed22001]

Look at spendas avatar. How can you stay mad at him?

because my br is bigger?

[bigspenda73]

calling seems so weird, even though we are getting 2:1. Youre only going to get $16 more if you hit so its seems retarded.

lol?

wondering why you struggle?

classless

I'll stop making sarcastic biting posts when people stop making poor, incorrect posts.

let me just apologize for the whole forum for not playing as well as you

get of me!

[Chopper]

thread effectively killed.

[Irisheyes]

Call. No point shoving, we've no FE

[snowboard_31]

I know this thread was killed by choppper, apologies ahead of time. But am I the only person who doesnt like the call with 97s to an UTG raise? There were no included stats on the villian to put him on a range before the flop either.

I play quite tight, somewhere around 12/7 and very little experience playing 6 max, which ive recently dabbled in. Is this an auto call? or is this more of a read call?

[zook]

Definitely not an auto-call. If utg is tight/straightforward, I like it. The MP caller helps too.

[Chopper]

I know this thread was killed by choppper, apologies ahead of time. But am I the only person who doesnt like the call with 97s to an UTG raise? There were no included stats on the villian to put him on a range before the flop either.

I play quite tight, somewhere around 12/7 and very little experience playing 6 max, which ive recently dabbled in. Is this an auto call? or is this more of a read call?

i dont have the power to "kill/lock" a thread. i was merely pointing out it was getting off topic, and didnt think it had a chance to regain its form.

and, yes, if you are a 12/7, you dont like this call/call of a raise. but, look at a few things from a "homerun perspective." we are playing NL, right? and the idea is to call/play some offbeat stuff so our villains cant always put us squarely on AK, right? oh, and to get paid in STACKS!!

so, 97s is a great hand in this spot, provided you know how to play it. we have deception, especially if we are tight by nature. we can hit a devastating flop...that no one will put us on. we have straight and flush possibilities going in, and the always dreaded "sneaky two pair." those are enough to call standard raises with...IN POSITION. we have a couple of things going for us. 1)deep stacks wanting to play the hand. 2) multiple players preflop. 3) and again, we have position.

i dont like the RR from the sb, but only one player drops out. how do we resist such "sneaky monster" potential when the flop will be about $13 and we only have to pay $3 more to call? thats better than 4:1 going in. and, if we hit a flop hard, we can see what develops ahead of us and either price players in or bump them out...depending.

so much goes into this hand. i can see where you may be nervous to play it in the beginning, but looking from a "potential" standpoint, can you see why its so attractive?

[snowboard_31]

ahhh i understand now.