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Puke-gasm. Villain #1 Swinky is unknown. Villain #2, 2lazy2work is an abysmally poor poker player, loves to check/minraise and then minbet the turn and other junk. Basically thinks poker is about making the biggest bluff. They both cover me.
I've erased irrelevant hand history junk. Its 5 handed.
Hand #1313012285000156: Chelsea (6-Max) 12285
Seat 4: Swinky (99.00 in chips)
Seat 7: GotNoSteerin (56.05 in chips)
Seat 10: 2lazy2work (68.85 in chips)
Swinky: posts small blind $0.50
GotNoSteerin: posts big blind $1
Dealt to GotNoSteerin [ Kd Ah ]
2lazy2work: raises to $7.50 Villains PFR is prob around top 10% here. But it's a pretty big 7.5x raise preflop...
Swinky: calls
GotNoSteerin: raises to $24 see footnote
2lazy2work: calls Basically obvious he doesnt have AA/KK
Swinky: calls
*** FLOP *** [ 9d, 2s, 7h ] Pot is about 75, obv more than my stack
Swinky: is all in Shit. My pot is now about $100
GotNoSteerin Puke/Calls his $30 hoping his 6 outs are clean.
2lazy2work is still left to act.
*FootNote*
My first inclination was to just shove over them. After the hand I tried to figure out if that was a good move or not. I say the PFR'r will call with JJ+ and AK and maybe AQs, not much else. However because he raised preflop, how much more likely is he to have one of those hands? I dont have a good answer to that. I'd say he's raising his top 10% hands preflop, which is fairly standard. But this is where I kind of get stuck and go "Whatever, say he calls 30% of the time, that sounds reasonable, and besides if he calls less it can only help you not hurt you"
Against JJ+/AK we're a 60/40 dog
Edit: Fixed equation [again]
(.70*15)+.30[(.40*71)-(.60*56)] = +$8.9 (someone check that math plz? I'm well known for being an idiot...) Which is a +EV bet
Obviously this ignores the second player in the pot but its pretty unlikely he has AA/KK here, so I think we can ignore him as even if he calls I think we'd be ahead or flipping.
I worked with NWNewell via AIM on this hand for quite a while (thanks dood you rock) and he ran through the calcs with me and found that we don't even need to worry about how often we'll win when called if villain calls less than 20% of the time (that is, even if we lost every time we were called it would still be +EV)
So in hindsight I think its very clear that shoving is a better play, even though it seems to be a pretty big overbet and that you'll only get called by good hands. It doesnt matter, its hugely +EV.
/long way to say the obvious, but i think this is going to be a situation that presents itself fairly commonly. Ideally, we should run the math for when a 10%ish PFR'r raises pre, gets a LP coldcaller and we have AK. Should we shove? I have to go to class but I'll try and answer that when I get back with an EV calc.
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