Preflop
If H@N$EN is opening on his button fairly infrequently, then there is little value in 3betting with such a weak suited connector. Our implied odds are also going to be lower in a hand that is HU, and we aren’t going to flop a funky two pair very often. We also have little fold equity preflop as H@N$EN is calling nearly all of our 3bets after opening on the button.
Flop
The continuation bet is standard, and the sizing is fine.
H@N$EN’s range after the flop contains strong made hands (A-7s+), one pair hands (A-Q-), and draws. We can’t discount strong made hands very much from his range since he hasn’t been raising a lot of flops recently. Our range on the flop is very wide, and contains lots of air, one pair hands, gutshots, flush draws, as well as (A-7s+).
Turn
The turn isn’t that good to double barrel, since it does improve a lot of drawing hands H@N$EN may have floated us with on the flop. Given H@N$EN’s perception of us, he may figure that with a hand like K-Q he has quite a few outs the times we have a hand like A-10, and has a good bluff catching hand the times we don’t. He may also think that he can bluff us off of a two pair hand if the river is a draw completing card (i.e. Heart, Jack). I think a total blank would be best to double barrel (i.e. 5s), and if I didn’t get a total blank I would check/fold the turn.
H@N$EN’s range after the turn is actually a little weaker than it was after the flop. We can somewhat discount made hands from his range, since we were expecting him to raise us with two pair or better. A-x is still in his range because, given our willingness to make big bluffs, he may have decided he would call a river bet if the river card did not complete any draws. There are also plenty of drawing hands in his range.
Typically, given H@N$EN’s tendency to raise good hands on the turn, we would expect him to also be raising a lot of his drawing hands. However, because he took several seconds to call, it’s likely he considered a raise, then noticed the stack sizes were going to put him in an awkward spot if he raised and was shoved on, and decided to call instead.
Our range after the turn still contains strong made hands (A-7s+), combo draws, bare heart draws, A-K, as well as air.
River
The river improved all the drawing hands in H@N$EN’s range. If he had a pair and a gutshot on the turn, he improved to two pair or a straight on the river. If he had a flush draw on the turn, he improved to a flush on the river.
We have three choices on the river:
1). Lead
Our range after leading the river would contain only flushes or air. With a straight or a set, we would likely check. The only made hands I can see us turning into a bluff are A-7s/A-10.
Given our history with this opponent, it is very possible H@N$EN would call a river bet with a straight. He would probably fold a set, but he is unlikely to be holding a set anyways. We don’t fold out more than a small portion of his range by leading the river, so clearly that would be a huge mistake.
2). Check, with the intention of folding
Unfortunately, we have zero showdown value - we have the nut worst hand! However, this is a better option than leading the river.
3). Check, with the intention of raising all in
We have to consider what hands H@N$EN would bet on the river if we check to him:
- Ace-x, incorrectly reasoning that he has no showdown value and a bluff is his best option.
- Flushes.
- Effectively turning his straight into a bluff, hoping other straights will fold and he won’t have to split the pot.
The pot is 440 on the river, and the effective stacks are 470.
If H@N$EN bets close to the size of the pot, a check/raise all in would have zero fold equity because there would be almost no money behind.
If H@N$EN bets closer to half the size of the pot, a check/raise all in would have some fold equity. Even after getting check/raised all in, however, H@N$EN would be getting 7:1 odds. And knowing that he is largely incapable of making big folds, even a check/raise all in here is unlikely to succeed often enough to be profitable.
My answer: check/folding the river is our best option.