OOP overpair vs a pretty good player, tough river

[benny999]

villain is relatively tight and straightforward.
BUT, he's seen me make a semi big fold to his big river bet before, and knows i can have a sorta wide range to bet-bet-bet this board.
also, not sure if it matters, but my timing was kinda fast on flop/turn as was his, then i tanked the river and he thought a bit too.

would u bet-call this? what about w/ different reads? what about shoving as a value bluff?

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (3 handed) Ultimate-Bet Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Button ($392.50)
Hero ($420)
BB ($650.90)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, BB calls $8.

Flop: ($24) T, 8, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $18, BB calls $18.

Turn: ($60) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $50, BB calls $50.

River: ($160) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $132, BB raises to $556, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $424

[martindcx1e]

well you certainly can't call this w/o a better read than that.

[Genitruc]

he can't have many hands, there's not much value in a raise with the bare str8 and you can be bluffing a decent % of the time

=

puke

sounds like I'm arguing for a call and I guess I kind of am

1 problem I have is that when we talked about this hand I thought for some reason villain was preflop raiser and you were donking into him on 3 streets which changed things quite a bit

[Numbr2intheWorld]

you played it well just fold the river now.

[griffey24]

hmmm I can see why Genitruc thinks this seems bluffy..

The only hands that I think can flat call the turn are flush/nut flush/88/TT

But I dont think a set would flat call this flop so I dont think those hands are in his range.

So now we have flush and flush draw potentially flat calling turn. Given that I think these are the most likely hands after the turn call, I think check/call is the best line on the river, to catch a bluff from a bare A/K hearts.

I think if you call this you get shown a flush a high percentage of time. Would he push a flush on a paired board? If he wouldn't, then this could really be a bluff since I don't think we see a boat here due to the flat call on flop.

[benny999]

imo, based on him being a straightforward multitabler combined with snap calling the flop and turn, makes his range on the river primarily a straight or 8x/Tx that's bluff raising.

i think betting the river without at least considering a call is not good against a thinking/tricky player since they'll realize it's not good to just call it. maybe he can make a hero call vs me though.

also i doubt he's calling a large turn bet with a bare Ah or Kh so i think checking puts me in this same spot if he bets, except pot odds prob will be different.

i think i shouldve called...just not confident he's raising the straight like this knowing my folding capabilities and everything.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think your overestimating what villain percives to be your river betting range. Think about it more, especially what kind of hands he'd think you were betting here.

[silu73]

I cannot see how we are ahead here. Opposition saw us betting 3 streets on a 3-flush, paired, straightening board and he raises us.

[Genitruc]

from OP :

(he) knows i can have a sorta wide range to bet-bet-bet this board.
also, not sure if it matters, but my timing was kinda fast on flop/turn as was his, then i tanked the river and he thought a bit too.

[benny999]

I think your overestimating what villain percives to be your river betting range. Think about it more, especially what kind of hands he'd think you were betting here.

pretty sure he'd think my river bet is TPGK+ and semibluffs that are now either straights or air.

i guess you're saying he expects me to have a straight or air mostly?

[silu73]

from OP :

(he) knows i can have a sorta wide range to bet-bet-bet this board.
also, not sure if it matters, but my timing was kinda fast on flop/turn as was his, then i tanked the river and he thought a bit too.

Hmm should have read this a little bit closer. Given this info I might like a call but as silly as it sounds only if its against a regular and if I expect to be sitting at the same table again in the future.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think your overestimating what villain percives to be your river betting range. Think about it more, especially what kind of hands he'd think you were betting here.

pretty sure he'd think my river bet is TPGK+ and semibluffs that are now either straights or air.

i guess you're saying he expects me to have a straight or air mostly?

Or flush, i just doubt opp is going to make a move based on the fact your thin vbetting a wide range, when normally versus non thin vbettors this is a spot where your going to see nuts or air.

[Genitruc]

I think it's pretty important that almost all of the time, HERO is the only one who can show up with a boat here

[jackvance]

I think he has a flopped flush very often here, all other hands don't make too much sense, including a bluff.

[sauce123]

well you certainly can't call this w/o a better read than that.

[benny999]

i'm going to be stubborn on this one, because imo i had about as good of a read as u need to call here. i've played a lot on tables w/ villain, prob around 10k hands.

we usually stay out of big pots vs each other, but i know him enough to say he does not insta call the flop with a flush or set, at least while multitabling like he was. maybe with the nuts but still doubt he insta calls that...timing was important imo.

and he is unlikely to raise the river with less than those hands because of what he knows about me. 8x/Tx bluffing makes sense, and maybe 86 pot controlling the flop, but 25% is enough odds to call i think.

also, looking back i like checking the river, maybe more than betting, vs him.