100NL sick spot

[Reidak]

can i fold here? no reads or history

PokerStars Game #13436805700: Hold'em No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2007/11/24 - 10:16:04 (ET)
Table 'Iphigenia IV' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: gkeeper ($142.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Samegen ($47 in chips)
Seat 3: stran11 ($74.50 in chips)
Seat 4: CK the 1 ($101.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Sn0wb4ll ($54 in chips)
Seat 6: reidak ($100.25 in chips)
Seat 7: freik85 ($82.95 in chips)
Seat 8: Inge777 ($113.15 in chips)
Seat 9: HitmanHaydon ($102.25 in chips)
stran11: posts small blind $0.50
CK the 1: posts big blind $1
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to reidak [5h 5s]
Sn0wb4ll: calls $1
reidak: calls $1
freik85: folds
Inge777: folds
HitmanHaydon: folds
gkeeper: folds
Samegen: folds
stran11: calls $0.50
CK the 1: raises $5 to $6
Sn0wb4ll: calls $5
reidak: calls $5
stran11: folds
*** FLOP *** [5c 8d Qc]
CK the 1: bets $10
Sn0wb4ll: calls $10
reidak: raises $22 to $32
CK the 1: calls $22
Sn0wb4ll: raises $16 to $48 and is all-in
reidak: calls $16
CK the 1: calls $16
*** TURN *** [5c 8d Qc] [4d]
CK the 1: bets $20
reidak: raises $26.25 to $46.25 and is all-in
CK the 1: calls $26.25

[bigspenda73]

srry boss but sick spots don't happen 100bb deep.

Did you realize how big the pot was when you made your flop raise? Raise was entirely too small for the texture of that board.

[bigspenda73]

btw, perfectly fine for the spot to be "gross" but not "sick"

[bode]

raise to $40 on the flop, and this is a fairly easy spot. if you got set over set, then chalk it up as a cooler.

[Miffed22001]

there is no decision here

[wufwugy]

This is a sick spot. Villian is a 20/6.8/1.8

Button ($51.85)
SB ($205.25)
BB ($189)
Hero ($292.15)
MP1 ($211.10)
MP2 ($140.75)
CO ($444.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8.
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO raises to $20, 3 folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($43) Q, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero raises to $40, CO snap calls $30.

Turn: ($123) K (2 players)
Hero bets $82, CO takes a little time then raises to $182

[bigspenda73]

AcKc all day long

[wufwugy]

Right

[Miffed22001]

This is a sick spot. Villian is a 20/6.8/1.8

Button ($51.85)
SB ($205.25)
BB ($189)
Hero ($292.15)
MP1 ($211.10)
MP2 ($140.75)
CO ($444.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8.
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO raises to $20, 3 folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($43) Q, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero raises to $40, CO snap calls $30.

Turn: ($123) K (2 players)
Hero bets $82, CO takes a little time then raises to $182

this isnt difficult either IMO

[bigspenda73]

Right

but did he hit?

[wufwugy]

This is a sick spot. Villian is a 20/6.8/1.8

Button ($51.85)
SB ($205.25)
BB ($189)
Hero ($292.15)
MP1 ($211.10)
MP2 ($140.75)
CO ($444.95)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8.
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, CO raises to $20, 3 folds, Hero calls $12.

Flop: ($43) Q, 7, 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero raises to $40, CO snap calls $30.

Turn: ($123) K (2 players)
Hero bets $82, CO takes a little time then raises to $182

this isnt difficult either IMO

How'd I know you wouldn't think so?

Go ahead and put him on a range that doesn't include QQ and especially KK the large majority of the time. A 20/7/2 very very rarely 3bets KQ and 77 pre, and cold calls with AK most of the time. He's not going to wake up and commit himself for 150bb with AA when he beats nothing that calls. This type of player commit-raises light very seldom. AKcc is super rare since he'll mostly just call turn with that. He is so obviously trying to get value out of a great hand with his nut hand.

88 is an easy fold vs QQ KK AKcc. He needs to have something like AA and KQ quite a bit more than is reasonable for this to be a felt. But like I said, he rarely sees a flop like this with KQ and almost never plays turn with AA like this. And we're only getting like 2 to 1, and there's even a small chance that a hand like AA will stupidly lay down to a push, making it even worse for us. I personally put him on KK around 80% of the time. He does have QQ a decent amount of time, though. Weirdly played, but occasionally reasonable for his type. Even if he plays AKcc like this every time, it's a fold if QQ and KK are the large majority, which they are.

This opponent is weak, straight foward, uncreative, and easy to read. His 3bet/turn felting range pwns me. Does anybody actually think that he thinks his AA is good here??? If he has AA he thinks he's up shit creek, and hopes for a cheap showdown. I'm confident this is my best laydown thus far.

[NLHE lahooozaher]

Go ahead and put him on a range that doesn't include QQ and especially KK the large majority of the time. A 20/7/2 very very rarely 3bets KQ and 77 pre, and cold calls with AK most of the time. He's not going to wake up and commit himself for 150bb with AA when he beats nothing that calls. This type of player commit-raises light very seldom. AKcc is super rare since he'll mostly just call turn with that. He is so obviously trying to get value out of a great hand with his nut hand.

OMG YOU FOLDED!?!?!? Did you know you have a set??? What did you call preflop for if you were going to fold when you hit?!?!?!?!

/sarcasm

I think it's a good fold but most people (even on forums) don't take reads into account and only see their strong hand. Nobody will ever agree with you...except for me ...and maybe Renton.

[wufwugy]

My reads in this scenario are all hud based, fyi. HUD is a super, super powerful tool, I've learned, and like I've said before, I think that if you wanna beat big games for big rates then one very efficient factor is in learning what hud stats mean in isolation and conjunction about opponents' skill levels, theoretical beliefs, style, strengths/weaknesses, etc; and when applied to each hand. For example, a 20/7/2 isn't good enough to pretty much ever bluff commit-raise 150bb deep with a draw, especially on the turn when it looks like I love my hand. If he was, his vpip/pfr/af would be different since his skill development would almost always necessitate that.

And I'll be surprised if Renton likes the fold. He's better than I am, yet he also folds less. All you gotta do is put villian on AA a few times and pushing is correct. I possibly never fold this to a 14/10/4, 20/9/5, 18/13/3, what have you. I dunno, though. Something like a 14/10 is more likely to have KQs from time to time, but is also more likely to realize that I raised from UTG and called his 3bet. He's actually going to 3bet bigger, anyways, with a low enough frequency that I'll probably fold 88 pre.

[Renton]

first hand is easy stack off.

in wufwugy's hand i would fold.