Stupid hand

[JL]

Have 60 hands on both villains
Button = is 45/20 but att. to steal blinds is 61 so far.
BB = 60/8/1 and just terrible so far.

My image (if they are paying attention) is super tight. I had no cards and was running about 12/6 on this table at this time.

How much fold equity do I need for this to be good?

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $2/$4
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $503.80
CO: $176.50
Button: $374.20
Hero: $367.25
BB: $394.90

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is SB with K 9
2 folds, Button raises to $15, Hero raises to $55, BB calls, Button folds.

Flop: 7 T 7 ($125, 2 players)
Hero bets $82, BB calls.

Turn: 3 ($289, 2 players)
Hero is all-in $228.25

[silu73]

I don't like it at all. Why would you want to bluff a terrible player. Just because you didn't get any cards doesn't mean you should start 3-betting with marginal hands OOP. He is not folding a T here I would assume.

[FastBeat]

hey JL-

Even guys with 60/8 stats will have a hand, usually pair, when they cold call a 3bet.
I think he has JJ in this hand..But you're turn bet gets AQ,AK to fold and maybe 88 99 also...

What are his call flop/turn stats like? Could he have called the flop with AK/AQ? If he folds these that leaves pairs(since he doesn't have a draw here, and I think he calls the turn bet with most of his pairs/

I think I check the flop...

[Roel]

For your fold equity question, been playing around with pokerstove for this a little...

Against any pair 77+ (not AA/KK), any 10-paint and 67s/78s you got about 21% equity here so you need about 30% FE to make this only marginally profitable.

But as played and him being so incredibly loose-passive, why not just check the turn? I bet he'll check behind.

[Galapogos]

I bet you lost your mind when he called with Ah4h.

[JL]

For your fold equity question, been playing around with pokerstove for this a little...

Against any pair 77+ (not AA/KK), any 10-paint and 67s/78s you got about 21% equity here so you need about 30% FE to make this only marginally profitable.

But as played and him being so incredibly loose-passive, why not just check the turn? I bet he'll check behind.

I think this is wrong.

I've never done an EV calculation in my life so someone tell me if this is right or not.

Let's say I have 30% FE on the turn and I am 24% to win the hand if he calls my shove.

EV = (289 x 0.3) + 0.7((.24 x 517) + (.76 x -228))

EV = 52.26

Now, the 517 is the size of the pot on the turn plus the amount villain has to call. Is that right or do I include my bet as well, making it 745?? (this would make it even more +EV...which I dont think is correct.)

Thanks to anyone who can comfirm this. I am such an EV n00b, I belong in the Beginner's section, lol.

[JL]

I bet you lost your mind when he called with Ah4h.

Haha not quite! He had QTo

The problem here is that I am so used to playing 6+ tables at a time of 100 or 200NL, but yesterday I wanted to try some $400NL out (obviously because there was 60/10's sitting at a few different tables!)

So I was playing only 2-3 tables of $400NL and I had good reads on everyone, but I was getting bored of folding so I decided to "make a move."

Well back to nitting it up on 8 $100-200 tables, until I get more discipline.

[IowaSkinsFan]

shoving is in no way that bad, i dont really like your threebet. I probably check the turn.

[Roel]

I've never done an EV calculation in my life so someone tell me if this is right or not.

I believe you are right. But I am pretty new here as well...

I just took the 30% from the ISF's easy guide to agression thread, but now I played around with the numbers some more.

following your calculation (assuming the 24% equity you said) you only need 15% fold equity to make this about 0 EV:
.15*289 + .85*(.24*517 + .76*-228) = 1.53

with the 21% equity i mentioned earlier you need 20% fold equity.

so i guess shoving here isn't that bad after all. Still think the turn check would get better results with less risk though.