Anyone like a check fold river with AQ?

[mixchange]

Reads: Villain has been a solid TAG slowly building his stack. Doesn't seem to be making risky moves/bluffs. ABC.

We're ahead of AJ, which I would expect to check behind... but i don't see why he bets so large PF with AJ. I doubt kings or queens came along for tthe ride. I really think he either has AK or 1010 here. It's also possible he also has Aqs or even AA. There are no draws on the flop or turn.

Seems like a spot where villain has showdown value by the river. If he has KK/QQ/JJ, I don't see why he doesn't fold turn. Also doesn't make sense he'd bluff river, he should check behind.

I can see villain playing a set here slow, given the uncoordinated board. But really I think he has AK. I check/fold river to 1/2 pot bet or more.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($199.70)
UTG ($58.50)
MP ($134)
Button ($41.25)
SB ($90.35)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, A.
UTG calls $1, MP raises to $7, 2 folds, Hero calls $6, UTG folds.

Flop: ($15.50) A, T, 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10.

Turn: ($35.50) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $23, MP calls $23.

River: ($81.50) 5 (2 players)

Hero ???

[ChrisTheFish]

Meh, yeah i think i check/fold, if he's not bluffy then he checks behind with AJ and bets anything that beats you.

[will641]

We're ahead of AJ, which I would expect to check behind... but i don't see why he bets so large PF with AJ.

honestly him betting anything this large doesnt make sense to me. in my experience it makes up a lot of mid pp's, but this guy is standard tag according to reads so im going to assume its a misclick. getting to the point i agree, c/f. i probably 3 bet pre though.

[mixchange]

Thanks for the responses. I hoped check/folding didn't seem insane, but it's these types of spots where saving the extra bet can really help your winrate.

[IowaSkinsFan]

whats his preflop stats exactly

[IowaSkinsFan]

I like c/c the flop here much much better.

[dsaxton]

I think betting yourself is better as played. Why allow him to decide whether or not money goes in on the river?

By the way, why did you lead at this flop? Looks like an obvious spot to check to his expected continuation bet.

[sauce123]

this is an extremely poor line vs this player

bet/fold river is probably best but i could be wrong

if bet/fold isnt best then check/fold is certainly best

[mixchange]

MP had been solid and made a pretty big PF raise. Usually that's a good hand, his range to me is 1010+, AQ/AK. Maybe AJs, but it seems like a stretch. I had also been showing down winners at that table so I don't see why he's following with JJ-KK. Seems like what's following me is AJ/AQ/AK/1010 which is a range I'm behind because AJ seems less likely.

What is flawed in my thinking sauce? Why such a bad line?

seems more like a check/fold or a shove... I suppose AJ pays me off, AQ is possible for a split, AK beats me.

what range do you put him on sauce? What amount do you bet?

and thanks for answering

[sauce123]

if that is his preflop range ur best line is a fold preflop and its not close

to the point that calling preflop is a significant mistake

[mixchange]

i thought of that OOP... good point. Should fold PF. You call on the button though right?

[sauce123]

no

[mixchange]

I guess if we're behind we're behind....

I just got the wrong impression from some of your posts, you often seem very loose and advocate calling wide ranges from the button

e.g. I put him on AK pf but he whiffs 2/3 time and I raise his cbet... why not? range too tight for that?