2 hands with questions

[minSim]

Hand 1:
villain is 39/11/1.29/100. I have no reads on him.
I included results because it shows my whole play. River is easy on this board and as played, but the decision is likely on the flop (maybe turn).

I see myself playing these flops passive quite a bit, which could be a leak. I'll show my reasoning in the first comment.
Is calling flop ever good? With what hands and whats the turn plan?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

BB ($25)
Hero ($80.28)
MP ($24.63)
CO ($27.95)
Button ($24.18)
SB ($8.53)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K,A.
Hero raises to $1, MP calls $1, 4 folds.

Flop: ($2.35) J,A,9 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.15, MP raises to $4.3, Hero calls $2.15.

Turn: ($10.95) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $5, Hero calls $5.

River: ($20.95) 6(2 players)
Hero checks, MP calls $24.63 (All-In), Hero folds.

Final Pot: $45.58


Hand 2:
Villain is a complete unknown.
I bet river because I expect villain to have a worse 8 a lot and calling it.
I doubt he has a 2, 56 is possible and hmm maybe 34 or a set, but I still find it hard to give him a range. Any thoughts on his range?

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

CO ($4.65)
Button ($25.67)
SB ($25.04)
Hero ($25.82)
UTG ($24.45)
MP ($28.95)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,.
3 folds, Button calls $0.25, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($0.72) ,, (2 players)
Hero bets $0.5, Button calls $0.50.

Turn: ($1.72) (2 players)
Hero bets $1.1, Button calls $1.10.

River: ($3.92) (2 players)
Hero bets $2.7, Button raises to $8

[minSim]

My thoughts about hand 1:

Villains stats are at loose preflop, but I don't have any read on him that he is very spewy. Therefor I assigned him a pretty strong range. I pokerstoved the following:

Board: Jc Ac 9d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.267% 48.98% 05.29% 26669 2879.50 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 45.733% 40.44% 05.29% 22022 2879.50 { JJ, 99, AJs+, A9s, KcQc, QcJc, QTs, JcTc, J9s, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo+, QTo }

This means I'm 10% ahead on the flop. Villains range consists of quite some drawing hands.
With ISF's strategy post in the back of my mind, drawing hands have a lot more or less equity on the next street. Therefor my reasoning was to not 3-bet and call and see a turn.

Let's say the turn is a blank, my equity is:

Board: Jc Ac 9d 2s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.595% 53.14% 05.45% 1286 132.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 41.405% 35.95% 05.45% 870 132.00 { JJ, 99, AJs+, A9s, KcQc, QcJc, QTs, JcTc, J9s, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo+, QTo }

If a very bad card like 8c hits, my equity is:

Board: Jc Ac 9d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.052% 31.37% 04.68% 704 105.00 { AsKc }
Hand 1: 63.948% 59.27% 04.68% 1330 105.00 { JJ, 99, AJs+, A9s, KcQc, QcJc, QTs, JcTc, J9s, Tc9c, Tc8c, 9c8c, 9c7c, 8c7c, 8c6c, 7c6c, 7c5c, 6c5c, 5c4c, AJo+, QTo }

I see myself making these passive flop plays quite often and I am wondering how good/bad it really is. Fwiw it feels too passive, but I'm not that thrilled to go all-in either (maybe I should be).

(also most people at these stakes call big turn bets with a bare FD, if that makes a difference)

[Irisheyes]

First hand is fine. You're flipping against even the tightest of ranges I can give him (2 pair, sets, AQ). I do doubt that he's going to be raising draws that often so I don't like 3betting the flop.

Second is also fine. Just fold the river. I doubt players at this level are bluffing much there.

[Silly String]

Second is also fine. Just fold the river. I doubt players at this level are bluffing much there.

I completely disagree. In hand #2, stupid aggro players love to rep ANY card that pairs the board. That said he has to give me a reason to think he is stupid/aggro enough to do so. Unknown is not a good enough reason. I fold river.

[Galapogos]

Hand #1 is fine though I really like to crai the turn on his weak ass bet. Don't like to do that without reads though. You really should have reads on how he plays certain spots after 100 hands though. Don't become a HUD bot.

Hand #2 easy fold. You could call because his line isn't repping much, but at the same time unknowns at this level aren't bluffing much.

[will641]

hand1: i think this is the 2 pairs. gf.
hand 2: call me stupid, but i like to bluff catch here, but i think the bet is good too.

[Irisheyes]

Second is also fine. Just fold the river. I doubt players at this level are bluffing much there.

I completely disagree. In hand #2, stupid aggro players love to rep ANY card that pairs the board. That said he has to give me a reason to think he is stupid/aggro enough to do so. Unknown is not a good enough reason. I fold river.

Really? I've never noticed that

[Silly String]

Maybe others can chime in, but that is what I have noticed as low as 10NL.

[Galapogos]

I find they like to rep paired flops but not boards that pair afterwards very often.

[will641]

Second is also fine. Just fold the river. I doubt players at this level are bluffing much there.

I completely disagree. In hand #2, stupid aggro players love to rep ANY card that pairs the board. That said he has to give me a reason to think he is stupid/aggro enough to do so. Unknown is not a good enough reason. I fold river.

Really? I've never noticed that

i agree with irish. the thing is only stupid aggro players are bluffing here, and stupid aggro players make up a very small % of players at these stakes. most just get really aggro when they have the nuts and are passive otherwise.

[Chopper]

hand one is fine, as stated. yes, you call the flop minraise here. you are up against a flush draw more often than AJ.

hand two is a river fold. you probably got floated and folded the best hand, though. but, its simply not strong enough to call any more than a minraise, imo.

[minSim]

Ok thanks quys, I'm glad my reasoning in hand isn't that bad afterall.

Hand 2 I folded and think it's the best move. People show up with unthinkable holdings at these stakes but usually raising means a strong hand. I'll dedicate it to the Lukie theorem.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I like it all.