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Poker Forum › Short-Handed NL Hold'em ›

turned nut flush draw, push with fold equity = good?

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  1. 01-12-2008 11:49 PM #1
    daven
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    Default turned nut flush draw, push with fold equity = good?

    So villain is looking lik 99/JJ. Thoughts?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Button ($29.35)
    Hero ($50)
    BB ($51.50)
    UTG ($33.80)
    MP ($83.20)
    CO ($61.95)

    Preflop: Hero is SB with Q, A.
    3 folds, Button raises to $1, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, Button calls $3.

    Flop: ($8.50) T, 6, 2 (2 players)
    Hero bets $6, Button calls $6.

    Turn: ($20.50) 3 (2 players)
    Hero bets $40 (All-In)
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  2. 01-13-2008 12:06 AM #2
    daven
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    edit
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  3. 01-13-2008 12:06 AM #3
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    I like it
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  4. 01-13-2008 12:14 AM #4
    thizzSantaCruz
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    how good is villain? against a decent player I don't like it you probably get called by TT or JJ. Against a bad player its good.


    *edit* didnt see villain was short, pushing is good.
    Flopping quads and boats like its my job
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  5. 01-13-2008 12:21 AM #5
    Ash256
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    Don't like it. His range is basically medium-strong 1 pair and sets. He's not folding his sets and he'll probably talk himself into calling with 1 pair.
    Listen to my music
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  6. 01-13-2008 12:28 AM #6
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    remember villain has less than a PSB so I think it's fine. Very opponent dependant though, bad vs. calling station, good vs. tightish/weakish players
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  7. 01-13-2008 12:51 AM #7
    Ash256
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    Quote Originally Posted by mixchange
    remember villain has less than a PSB
    ah
    Listen to my music
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  8. 01-13-2008 01:37 AM #8
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  9. 01-13-2008 02:07 AM #9
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    reads would be nice (if he's a 6/2 this might not be smart), but even if I had a read I'd play it the same way


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  10. 01-13-2008 09:45 AM #10
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    It looks like the right play against a short stack.. if you bet $14 on the turn and he pushes you have to call anyways. You could check, hoping for a free card, and if he pushes get off the hand. Depends on the read as to what I do.
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  11. 01-13-2008 06:34 PM #11
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    It's almost impossible for this to be bad unless villain's entire pre-flop calling range is pocket pairs and he's stacking off with all of them on the turn.
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  12. 01-14-2008 01:53 PM #12
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    jyms
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    Buttons open Range that calls this flop= AK, 22, 66-JJ other GS's, FD's, overcards, and random floats

    Any PP calling here (other than TT & 66) leaves us 6 more outs than the FD alone. With Villain having only a PSB remaining, we are good here. Add any FE at all and we are gold against 75%+ of his range.
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  13. 01-14-2008 06:43 PM #13
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    Yay, strangely enough I am hero in this hand.
    3k post - Return of the blog!
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  14. 01-14-2008 09:49 PM #14
    dsaxton
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    You just caught one of your best cards and are now committed to the river, so you might as well maximize your chances of getting a fold from him by moving all-in.

    I really don't think reads matter here much at all.
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