Loose/passive bets river hard

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Villain is running like 30/15/1, he has yet to raise a flop, however i haven't seen him showdown a slowplay yet (and i get the feeling he wouldn't slowplay this board). I played a hand with him where he c/c my flop continuation bet with a FD when i had top set on a J32 board, the turn comes a flush but pairs the board, i bet again and he calls. The river is a K and i bet something like 1/3 pot (thinking that a J will call and a Flush will raise) and he calls .

Hand isn't converting right... so i'll have to post it raw.

FullTiltPoker Game #4958307: Table Ariba (6 max) - $3/$6 - No Limit Hold'em - 19:46:14 ET - 2008/01/22
Seat 1: Mizzles ($576.10), is sitting out
Seat 2: ThaiBlonde ($582)
Seat 3: Liquid_Club ($732.20)
Seat 4: 8fenw1ck ($591.30)
Seat 5: Massimo ($1,930.75)
Seat 6: raytech ($281.85)
raytech posts the small blind of $3
ThaiBlonde posts the big blind of $6
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Massimo [8d Kd]
Mizzles stands up
Liquid_Club calls $6
8fenw1ck folds
Massimo raises to $27
raytech folds
ThaiBlonde calls $21
raytech has been disconnected
Liquid_Club calls $21
raytech has reconnected
*** FLOP *** [Ah 8c 9c]
ThaiBlonde checks
Liquid_Club checks
Massimo bets $65
ThaiBlonde folds
Liquid_Club calls $65
*** TURN *** [Ah 8c 9c] [Qs]
Liquid_Club checks
Massimo checks
*** RIVER *** [Ah 8c 9c Qs] [3d]
Liquid_Club bets $214
Massimo has requested TIME

I think if the turn isn't a Q this is a lot easier.

[Genitruc]

what would you do if you had accidentally checked the turn with AA here?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

well i beat AQ, QQ, and an unlikely slowplay so i'd shove.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

Also haven't seen him reraise yet just fyi... although he could have when i wasn't paying attention.

[noble007]

At first glance vs a weak passive player it looks like he missed a check raise on the turn and is trying to make up for it with an overbet on the river.

I don't expect players with low af's to bluff at missed draws esp oop & often if they do do it, they bet too small - trying to bluff for cheap, whereas aggressive players will bet too much.

Without more reads I fold vs a 1 af, probably even if I had an Ace - is that weak? (& I wouldn't try shove him off anything)

[sauce123]

doesnt rly matter loosepassives r often retards in this spot its def better getting better odds id prob fold but who cares

[IowaSkinsFan]

before i make a hero call in this marginal of a spot, i ask myself "Is my opponent likely beating me in this type of spot with aggression?" And if the answer is no, I normally fold. This is one of those situations.

[dsaxton]

What makes you think there's any chance your hand is good? You described your opponent as someone who probably never bets like this as a bluff, and that's all you can beat. So fold.

[sauce123]

What makes you think there's any chance your hand is good? You described your opponent as someone who probably never bets like this as a bluff, and that's all you can beat. So fold.

ty Mr. Saxton

[bair]

definitely folding, looks like JT all day.

[benny999]

if he acted fast i'd call. that is a donk's standard line for a missed draw...and a few monsters, but with 15% pfr there's not many monsters.

[Numbr2intheWorld]

he acted fast i think.

[Lukie]

wait, you want to call??????????????????

at first i thought you wanted to bluff shove which also seems bad.

[nutsinho]

yeah i dont get it...the flush draw missed, so what

[Numbr2intheWorld]

yeah i actually did call.

I can think of 2 hands he's v-betting that make perfect sense. Some other ones don't make sense because of certain streets but are still possibilities.

[BigPapi]

99 & JT?

[Numbr2intheWorld]

AQ JT

[IowaSkinsFan]

I don't like the flop bet size btw

[benny999]

did he have JT?

another thing about this is ppl from stars are not as used to the donks floating any draw then hitting the pot button if u check the turn...i see this all the time on UB...pot is prob a value bet mostly on stars.