spoonitnow's FR Analysis Thread (hands 4-5 added)

[spoonitnow]

I'm going to use this thread to post some hands in, but I'd prefer comments about my thought process and the range of hands I put villains on rather than just comments about the action taken in the hands (especially since some of these HHs are changed from what actually happened).

Some of these are el-dee-oh hands, but I'm trying to get in the habit of thinking about different things post-flop than I currently do, so bare with me.

Hand 1
Villain is 46/23/1.1 over about a hundred hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($140.20)
MP1 ($67)
MP2 ($308.90)
MP3 ($206.30)
Hero ($419.40)
Button ($233.70)
SB ($210.05)
BB ($235.25)
UTG ($116.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, 3 folds, Hero raises to $10, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $8.

Flop: ($23) T, 4, 6 (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($23) A (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $16, UTG+1 raises to $130.2, Hero ...

Villain's check/call preflop indicates he could have any two cards, so we bet the turn to protect our hand against the two flush draws and various lesser draws on the board. Villain pushes for about three times the pot when it's his turn to act on the turn. We're getting 169:114, or around 1.5:1 for pot odds. All sorts of two pair and set hands beat us and the best hand that we are currently ahead of is A9. Villain isn't particularly aggressive, so it's doubtful that he would push with A9 or less, so this is an easy fold.


Hand 2
Villain is unknown.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (7 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP1 ($169.20)
Hero ($301.55)
CO ($77.55)
Button ($223.20)
SB ($38)
BB ($206.15)
UTG ($104.55)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A, K.
UTG calls $2, MP1 raises to $4, Hero raises to $18, 4 folds, UTG folds, MP1 calls $14.

Flop: ($41) 9, 5, 8 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets $34, MP1 calls $34.

Turn: ($109) 9 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero checks.

River: ($109) 7 (2 players)
MP1 bets $50, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $109

Villain makes a middle position min-raise against a limper and calls a big re-raise preflop, which seems to suggest villain has a medium pair, suited connectors, or high unpaired cards a lot of the time. We c-bet the flop to narrow villain's range, pick up the pot when it's missed overs, and occasionally get the best hand to fold when villain flops a pair smaller than nines, since we're often given credit for a big pair here. Villain calls our bet which narrows his range to mostly one-pair hands. On the turn the nine pairs the board. The plan at this point is to take our free card and perhaps call a small bet if we hit our A or K on the river. We check behind and the river completes straight draws and a backdoor flush draw. Villain bets slightly less than half the pot, which looks like a hand trying to get a call, and gives us slightly better than 3:1 pot odds to call. The best hand we beat here is AQ, which is very unlikely at best given the action, so we have a relatively easy river fold.


Hand 3
Villain is 30/6/0.6 after about 50 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($45)
BB ($438.80)
UTG ($59.35)
UTG+1 ($362.85)
Hero ($200)
MP2 ($177)
CO ($200)
Button ($747.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K, Q.
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $2, Hero raises to $10, MP2 calls $10, 4 folds, UTG+1 calls $8.

Flop: ($33) K, 6, T (3 players)
UTG+1 bets $10, Hero raises to $30, MP2 raises to $72, UTG+1 folds, Hero ...

Villain is loose/passive, flat called a raise preflop, and makes a re-raise on this flop after an EP limp/caller donks out and the preflop aggressor re-raises. Villain's likely range is a combo draw or a set. If we call here, we're be forced to get it all-in on the turn. We're a coin-flip against AsJs, slightly behind to QsJs, and drawing virtually dead against TT and 66. KJ doesn't play like this from a loose/passive, so we should fold.


Hand 4
Villain is 26/7/0.8 over about 100 hands.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($196.15)
Hero ($206.55)
CO ($245.60)
Button ($120)
SB ($410.80)
BB ($86.10)
UTG ($202.90)
UTG+1 ($95.70)
MP1 ($197)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with K, K.
UTG calls $2, UTG+1 raises to $8, 2 folds, Hero raises to $30, 4 folds, UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $22.

Flop: ($65) A, 6, 7 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $26, Hero ...

Villain has $65 behind before his flop bet. If I call I'm committed so I'm essentially getting 2:1 pot odds. His preflop tightness combined with this early position bet and re-raise call make me think he's got some sort of strength. I wasn't sure how positionally aware the guy was, but I figure 99+, AQs+, AQo+, and KQs is a slightly loose guess at his range when he calls the 3-bet. When he donks out, since he's not particularly aggressive, I can't really assume that he's trying to push me off of KK-JJ, so the only hands that make sense are AQ+ if that assumption is correct. However, the times he has KK-99 and KQs, I won't extract anymore money, and the times he has AQ+ I'll lose my entire stack. I think this makes a fold the correct play here.


Hand 5
Villain is 42/14/1.0 over about 100 hands. I have been very active in late position for a few orbits now.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG ($106.50)
UTG+1 ($205)
MP1 ($336.60)
MP2 ($218.95)
Hero ($197)
Button ($85.40)
SB ($325.50)
BB ($40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, Q.
4 folds, Hero raises to $8, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) A, 3, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $16, Button calls $16.

Turn: ($51) 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($51) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $30

Villain is very loose and fairly passive. After the preflop call I think he could have any two broadway cards, suited connectors, or pocket pairs JJ-22 or TT-22 since I'm not sure if he would 3-bet Jacks. I bet the flop since I'm ahead of most of his range and it's also a good flop texture to c-bet on. Once he calls the flop I think his range is something like A7s+, A9o+, TT-44, 98s, 87s, 98o, 87o. Once he checks behind on the turn I feel like I can take AK, AQ, and maybe AJ out of his range. On the river this leaves ATo, A9o, ATs, A9s, A8s, A7s, T9s, 98s, T9o, 98o, TT, 99, 88, 77, 66, 55, and 44 that are at probably at least calling a bet, and we're about 60% against this range. If we take out 77 and 55, which I think are the most likely hands from this range that he would fold, we're still about 53%. So I think a river value bet is +EV here.

[freechus9]

In hand 3, KsQs is impossible.

Hands 1 and 2 are standard, thought process and play alike.

Hand 3 is tricky but I agree that a fold is in order. Do you feel like it's +EV to avoid marginal situations like this one, even if there's a chance you're ahead? I feel that putting opponents on ranges/narrowing them down is wonderfully useful, but when we're flipping against a range that makes sense to us, doesn't it make sense that our estimated range is slightly incorrect, possibly shifting the EV of a call into the red?

[kingnat]

I really appreciated reading through this spoon... while many consider these plays standard.. i find it enormously beneficial to review these type of carefully thought out posts. (I probably should do more of this kind of thing for myself... as I tend to... well, suck at poker and give away money...

[spoonitnow]

In hand 3, KsQs is impossible.

Hands 1 and 2 are standard, thought process and play alike.

Hand 3 is tricky but I agree that a fold is in order. Do you feel like it's +EV to avoid marginal situations like this one, even if there's a chance you're ahead? I feel that putting opponents on ranges/narrowing them down is wonderfully useful, but when we're flipping against a range that makes sense to us, doesn't it make sense that our estimated range is slightly incorrect, possibly shifting the EV of a call into the red?

In hand 3 I meant QsJs. It was just a typo, and I've corrected it.

I'm not really sure what you mean about avoiding marginal situations in respect to hand 3. I don't feel like this is a very marginal situation at all. The only chance I have of being ahead is if I'm against KJ or if I'm against something like 7s5s, neither of which is particularly likely because of the flop re-raise and villain's tendency to be passive.

In regard to spots that you evaluate as being approximately 0EV, it depends on a few things like the rake structure and your image. If the rake is already capped, and/or if you think showing down in a particular spot will adjust your image in some profitable way, then your EV evaluation will change based on those things to where you think the spot is either marginally profitable or marginally unprofitable.

I think what you're talking about is something more along the lines of expecting to make mistakes, and folding in marginal situations since you think you might have missed something that would make a certain spot -EV. I don't think this is a terrible thing to do if for some reason you're so prone to tilt to the point that if you lose your later play will become relatively -EV. I also don't think this is a terrible idea for poker in general if you're new to the game you're playing, have recently moved up in stakes and are trying to get your bearings, or if you're multitabling to a point that it makes you more prone to mistakes.

However, at some point you'll have to mature into the shoes of a player who is skilled and confident in their ability to play marginal spots well.

[badgers]

Can you talk about the decision to raise the flop in hand 3, and how you chose that bet size? Would you raise the same with a set?

[spoonitnow]

Can you talk about the decision to raise the flop in hand 3, and how you chose that bet size? Would you raise the same with a set?

It was really just enough to find out if UTG+1 had anything while denying great odds for flush draws if that's what he has, while also keeping it small enough that I don't feel committed if MP2 makes a big raise. I think $35 or $40 might have been a little better so that the decision against a raise from MP2 is a lot clearer. Also, I think $35 or $40 is more like what I would raise to with a set or combo draw, making it all the better.

[d0zer]

Can you talk about the decision to raise the flop in hand 3, and how you chose that bet size? Would you raise the same with a set?

It was really just enough to find out if UTG+1 had anything while denying great odds for flush draws if that's what he has, while also keeping it small enough that I don't feel committed if MP2 makes a big raise. I think $35 or $40 might have been a little better so that the decision against a raise from MP2 is a lot clearer. Also, I think $35 or $40 is more like what I would raise to with a set or combo draw, making it all the better.

I find myself often in that situation vs a passive player. Those smaller bets from passive players are a show of strength often, no?

I wonder if we could justify a call instead of a raise on the flop. Chances are pretty good that a loose passive isn't going to fold a draw regardless of what odds you're giving, so maybe we save some money in situations like this by being passive, then shutting down when draws complete?

[spoonitnow]

I find myself often in that situation vs a passive player. Those smaller bets from passive players are a show of strength often, no?

Sometimes, but you can't just call down a bunch of small bets here. You'd rather know where you're at early on and shut out the odds that draws need.

I wonder if we could justify a call instead of a raise on the flop. Chances are pretty good that a loose passive isn't going to fold a draw regardless of what odds you're giving, so maybe we save some money in situations like this by being passive, then shutting down when draws complete?

We're counting on the part in the bold so that we make money when playing against draws. If you don't bet when you're ahead, then you lose at poker.

[BankItDrew]

95% how I would have played all three. 5% is the raise on the flop in hand three, which you agreed already that the amount could have been a tad higher.

[spoonitnow]

95% how I would have played all three. 5% is the raise on the flop in hand three, which you agreed already that the amount could have been a tad higher.

Yeah most of that HH was made up anyway =P

[bigslikk]

Do you think this thoroughly about hands when you're actually playing them? Are you letting the time bar run low while thinking? If yes to either, do you multi-table? (and if so, how?)

[spoonitnow]

Do you think this thoroughly about hands when you're actually playing them? Are you letting the time bar run low while thinking? If yes to either, do you multi-table? (and if so, how?)

Sort of. It's not really in paragraph form, but I think about most of the same things. The biggest difference is probably how I think about ranges because I don't think specifically about a list of what hands he could have and then compare my equity to that. Instead I sort of group the hands together by how far/ahead I am to each and how likely I think they are, then weight the groups against each other. It's really hard to explain how I think about ranges because I'm honestly not sure how to. Maybe I'll do a post on that sometime.

The longest I take on a decision while looking at the table is probably 4 or 5 seconds, and that probably only happens 3 or 4 times at the most in a 2500-hand session. The reason for this is that I'm normally 18 or 20-tabling for full ring. While I'm going through making a lot of default plays that come more or less automatically, I'm thinking about the more complicated spots. It helps to be able to think about more than one thing at a time.

I hope that answered your questions.

[Pelion]

Havnt had time to read all of it yet but I think your thinking is slightly off in hand 1. You say the best hand we beat is A9 and he wouldnt push with it so blah. Thats true, but there are two types of hands we beat that he might push. He could have a made hand like A9 or he could have a draw. It doesnt sound like you are considering draws (although he is unlikely to have one here anyway).

[badgers]

Some other stuff to think about.

Hand one, why no cbet? I would cbet this as a default line and I'm intrigued why no one else has suggested it. Is it just because villain calls so much anyway that we're only folding out worse hands, anything better calls us? And I suppose our hand has SD value vs. his range?

Hand 4 looks standard.

Hand 5 - Nice vbet. I would also vbet here, but I haven't gone through the exact ranges like this before and worked out percentages. This is a really interesting thread and shows things I should be thinking about more.

[spoonitnow]

Havnt had time to read all of it yet but I think your thinking is slightly off in hand 1. You say the best hand we beat is A9 and he wouldnt push with it so blah. Thats true, but there are two types of hands we beat that he might push. He could have a made hand like A9 or he could have a draw. It doesnt sound like you are considering draws (although he is unlikely to have one here anyway).

It would be rare that this passive of a villain would push here with a draw.

Hand one, why no cbet? I would cbet this as a default line and I'm intrigued why no one else has suggested it. Is it just because villain calls so much anyway that we're only folding out worse hands, anything better calls us? And I suppose our hand has SD value vs. his range?

I feel like this is a bad spot for a c-bet, especially against this loose of a villain.

[Fnord]

I think you're giving up too easily in hand 4.

[spoonitnow]

I think you're giving up too easily in hand 4.

Yeah maybe so but if I put anymore money in I'm committed and this guy's really really passive. If he had an AF of like 2.0, that would probably be enough for me to get it in.

[Fnord]

You pretty much committed pre-flop. Post-flop is an abort, nothing to be done lightly. With pot behind you can't go flop shopping.