Gutsy play

[jasons0147]

I know exactly what he has here. his range is AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ. Ive been at this table for like 50 or so hands and Ive watched him do crap like this with two over cards. I probably should have done this with a better hand, but I guess this works to. Hes a 50/15 over 300 hands. My plan postflop was to open shove just as long as no card higher than a ten fell. He did it for me, and this is gonna sound bad...but I did the whole double fist pump snap call thing.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

BB ($22.80)
UTG ($25)
MP ($29.60)
Hero ($25.80)
SB ($34.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with , . UTG posts a blind of $0.25.
UTG (poster) checks, 1 fold, Hero raises to $1.25, 1 fold, BB raises to $5.25, UTG folds, Hero calls $4.

Flop: ($10.85) , , (2 players)
BB bets $17.55 (All-In), Hero calls $17.55.

Turn: ($0) (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: ($0) (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: $45.95

[Ash256]

I know exactly what he has here. his range is AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ.

So what's the question?

[jasons0147]

So what's the question?

If im 85% sure Im right is this the right play? I mean how often does he show up with JJ-AA here?

[Roel]

What would he do with JJ-AA? U think he would not open-shove this as well?

So if his range is AJ, AQ, AK, KQ, KJ, JJ-AA , then you're about 80% to be ahead (with 70% to win) and 20% to be behind (with about 10% to win). So i think you are +EV on the fistpump thing.

Think numbers are right, i'm on a mac so no pokerstove here.

[silu73]

I just fold pre-flop. No disrespect but I'm not going into any guessing game against a 50/15 at $25nl.

[dalecooper]

If your read is rock solid - if he's run this line repeatedly with overcard hands that missed - then this is fine. You'll pay off his big pairs and occasionally get drawn out on, but it's still +EV. I'd just be careful and wait until the board was as raggedy as possible, and unpaired, so as to minimize his outs against you.

If you feel your read is at all questionable though, if his re-raise range isn't as broad as you think, this quickly moves into sketchy territory. Maybe not a full-on mistake, but something where you give your stack away a lot more often than you'd like.

[mixchange]

definitely fold PF.

[piitb]

I just fold pre-flop. No disrespect but I'm not going into any guessing game against a 50/15 at $25nl.

It is a magical and strange world trying to outthink people who do not think?

[will641]

yeah im not going to lie, the pf call was prettty bad. if you think hes really weak pre, why not shove pre? and im not saying shoving pre is good btw. as played this is equally bad. how do you know he isnt relying on his table image to get called down here super light? and if hes doing this crap with overs, i almost guarantee he is doing it with any pp.

[RipperJ]

yeah im not going to lie, the pf call was prettty bad. if you think hes really weak pre, why not shove pre? and im not saying shoving pre is good btw.

I really like this point. Makes sense that if you know villain is that weak pre flop then you might as well shove then instead of after the flop.

However since it probably depends on his flop "bluff" cont-bet then I see where you are coming from.

As every1 has sed I would fold here pf.

[Pelion]

if we have a read that he will tip his hand (overcards or PPs) postflop then calling preflop is much better than shoving.

Calling is still really bad though.

[jasons0147]

Maybe Im missing something. I was 80% sure that i had his range right and a real good read on player. With the range I have him on Im flipping a coin preflop. Knowing what he will do post flop I will get paid off just as long as his range doesnt hit. Shoving here makes no sense to me, I dont want to flip a coin for a full stack, I will however flip a coin for 4 bucks with the chance to get the rest of his stack if the board misses him.

Postflop with the range I have him on Im 70% to win.

I know preflop this looks like a horrible call, but I just figured postflop the play was fairly easy for me.

As far as the comment with him playing JJ-AA any diferent, the truth is that I had seen him in similar situations and his play was to always try and sucker the player in. He wouldnt reraise preflop, and would value bet every street.

Could he be mixing up his play? Absolutly! Could I be way off in my thinking here? For sure!

I get tired of posting up the typical I have two pair and dont know what to do hands. I wanted to talk about a hand where I had a great read on a player and that I felt my cards didnt matter All that much. I knew that I didnt need help postflop, he did, and I used that to my advantage. I knew that before I posted this hand that my play here was questionable and I wanted to discuss in an open forum the possibilty of me being mentally insane