When not to bluff?

[cjs55]

Against a competent, thinking player. I haven't been caught making any big bluffs and have a reasonably tight image. My flop aggression was fairly low, I had checked some solid hands to the turn.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (2 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($177.65)
Hero ($156.20)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q, T.
Hero raises to $3.5, BB raises to $12, Hero calls $8.

Flop: ($23.50) 9, A, 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks.

Turn: ($23.50) J (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero raises to $45, BB calls $30.

River: ($113.50) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $75, BB calls $75.

Final Pot: $263.50

I think this is an interesting spot where he obviously has a solid hand. Regardless, I felt my range here was ahead of his after I bet on the river.

Because the board is dry, I guess he can only put me on air, an unlikely set/2pair, or AK/AQ. Maybe he figured I had air a large percentage of the time because of the slimness of what I could hold. He ended up calling with exactly what I wanted him to fold in this spot, AT. I honestly felt like this could be a fold for Ax-AT.

[boost]

when he calls on the turn he has a good jack or a weak ace which is clearly beating your range which is .. idk.. 88 TT and any jack.

[cjs55]

First, I would be more likely to check raise a slowplayed ace on the turn than any of those hands.

Second, why would I bet any of those hands on the river?

I think that after I make the river bet, my range is polarized between air and hands that beat Ax-AT.

I should mention, both of us were rarely 4betting preflop. AJ-AK are certainly in my range.

[Jack Sawyer]

When not to bluff?

When there's a big chance you'll get called
When you haven't been telling the right story


Here, by nature, its headsup, hence you'll probably be called light, but you also have not been telling the right story.

Think about it his way: what does a free card on flop accomplish? Why did you not 3bet pf? What about a turn raise; what do you want accomplished with this? What does your opponent think of you? What does he think you think of him?

[cjs55]

Assume I have AK, AQ, or AJ.

Giving a free card on the flop is deception and lets you get called down lighter on future streets.

Turn raise is hidden value/protection. I'm going to get called light since I checked the flop, which was the whole point of me checking the flop. I think raising the turn after checking the flop is almost standard due to you getting called down light.

Then an obvious river value bet.

The question here isn't really whether I told the right story IMO, because I would play AK through AJ, A9, 99, JJ, precisely the same, and I believe opp realizes this fact by the time I bet on the river. The river bet really tightens up my range. I would check everything except those hands and air there.

The question is, when my range is so polarized and slim, is it worth bluffing on the river?

[Jack Sawyer]

You do not flat pf with AK

Also, your draw here is to the nuts, but its a bad draw [4 possible outs] since you are probably already drawing. A is a big part of his range here, and he ain't folding TP in HU

[Jack Sawyer]

Holy shit, now I see the results. You should edit to remove the results if you want further unbiased discussion by newer posters

And no, I did not read it before my previous anwers.

[cjs55]

You do not flat pf with AK

Meh. In position I will. Whether thats a good idea is a whole different topic. Regardless, as I mentioned earlier, 4 betting was very rare, both of us had shown up with very good hands in spots that we had just called a 3 bet with in position.

Also, your draw here is to the nuts, but its a bad draw [4 possible outs] since you are probably already drawing.

I don't understand what you are saying here. I have 8 outs on the turn, 8 or K.

[Jack Sawyer]

You do not flat pf with AK

Meh. In position I will. Whether thats a good idea is a whole different topic. Regardless, as I mentioned earlier, 4 betting was very rare, both of us had shown up with premium hands in spots that we had not 4 bet.

Also, your draw here is to the nuts, but its a bad draw [4 possible outs] since you are probably already drawing.

I don't understand what you are saying here. I have 8 outs on the turn, 8 or K.

z

Yeah, openended, sorry about that.

But because of the action, I would have been 100 % sure a Q or a T would not have been outs, and that you'd need some outs to win. 8 outs on river is a little worse than 4:1 to hit (correct me if I am wrong), still bad imo hence more of a reason to flat turn (if you want to draw) or bet fold to win uncontested, which is very unlikely


I incline over flatting though

[cjs55]

But because of the action, I would have been 100 % sure a Q or a T would not have been outs, and that you'd need some outs to win. 8 outs on river is 4:1 to hit (correct me if I am wrong), still bad imo hence more of a reason to flat turn

I don't see why this is necessarily the case. Since we both checked the flop, I think he could bet the turn here with air or a good jack. A jack he might not fold on to the turn raise, by the way, but certainly to the river bet.

[Jack Sawyer]

But because of the action, I would have been 100 % sure a Q or a T would not have been outs, and that you'd need some outs to win. 8 outs on river is 4:1 to hit (correct me if I am wrong), still bad imo hence more of a reason to flat turn

I don't see why this is necessarily the case. Since we both checked the flop, I think he could bet the turn here with air or a good jack. A jack he might not fold on to the turn raise, by the way, but certainly to the river bet.

What are you repping? Is he capable of reraisin pf OOP HU with air? The c/r just seems so obvious villain line on flop here

[Pelion]

I dont like it because you seem to be repping a very thin range. Stuff like AK just doesnt fit with how you played it. I can see maybe JJ/AJ but thats about it.

Thin range + HU = getting looked up light.

[cjs55]

What are you repping? Is he capable of reraisin pf OOP HU with air? The c/r just seems so obvious villain line on flop here

I think I can rep quite a bit here. I will occasionally check here with an ace or better in this sort of spot and he has seen that in the past.

No doubt the c/r is a sizable part of his range. I could see him checking something with value that's not an ace in this spot. I may be overrating that part though. He is capable of a c/f though if he misses entirely though. I had been aggressive enough against cbets that he had adjusted somewhat. I should have mentioned that at the beginning.

I dont like it because you seem to be repping a very thin range. Stuff like AK just doesnt fit with how you played it. I can see maybe JJ/AJ but thats about it.

Thin range + HU = getting looked up light.

I agree that my range is probably too thin to do this. Although I do think 99,AK,AQ,AJ,J9 are all in my range (I could play them all similarly), whether or not villain recognizes this fact from my play is the problem. I obviously thought at the time he had enough information about my play to know that they were in my range, but I could easily be wrong there.


One interesting thing is if it's correct for villain to call here, it's correct for him to call with just about anything that has value.


I think what I have learned from this is to not judge my possible ranges in a bluffing situation based on what I know is possible, but what on villain thinks is possible. And second, not to give villain lots of credit in figuring out my actual ranges.