4 Noobs: Read this hand

[Robb]

As a fun experiment, I'm going to ask the FTR icons to not pwn the thread until several microstakes guys have had a shot. Anyone can vote, let the first 5 or 6 folks who post in the thread be microstakes players, thanks. If you play NL25 and lower as you're typical game, put villain on a range and say whether Hero should fold, call or shove.

Edit: Villain is 24/16/1.4 over 100 hands. Sorry, meant to post in BF.

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($17.00)
UTG 1 ($17.49)
MP1 ($8.15)
MP2 ($10.00)
MP3 ($52.46)
CO ($9.75)
Hero ($28.50)
SB ($19.15)
BB ($13.07)
[MP2 posted $0.25]

Pre-flop: ($0.6, 9 players) Hero is BTN
UTG calls $0.25, UTG 1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP2 checks, MP3 raises to $1.5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, 2 folds, UTG folds, UTG 1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $3.5

Flop: ($11.35, 2 players)
MP3 bets $7, Hero ???

What's villain got here?

[Deuce Blue]

Hell I'm a S&G player mostly but I suppose my small stints on .02/.04 tables classify me as a micro-micro stakes player so I'll take a shot.

I got villian with A-Q ( suited ) or A-k or a pocket pair that he just couldn't give up. I think after hero raised up to $5 and then just a call, I can't put him on KK or AA. I think he would have just shoved pre. I think he is trying to take it down cheap if he can. Figures you for A-K and a bit of a dry flop as far as paint goes. Has to throw something out there or give you control and he knows you are almost forced into a c-bet. With what I got left and over pair and the Q of spades I shove it all in the middle.

So final guesses are A-K, A-Q (suited ), A-10, or the hooks. And I shove.

Please someone tell me why it is a good thing I don't play cash.

[Hawk]

^^ I'm right there with duece. I also thought about TT or 99, but those hands probably check expecting you to do the betting.

[MuddyWicket]

16% in semi late position raising over 2 limpers i'd be tempted to add KT TJ 78? Folding is retarded, shoving I like, somedays I call and shove turn depending on my hormones.

As for the shove we are called by trips, JJ, maybe a few draws . and fold a lot of top pairs. Wierdly because we have QQ and one of them being a spade I think the drawing hands are less likely to have as many outs as they think making a shove on a blank turn seem more appealing because we are now way ahead of some of his range rather than pretty close.

Nice question Robb.

ps. I almost never see stats like 24/16. They are only this close if below 10%.

[dev]

I think having the Qs narrows V's range a bit and takes away a couple flush draws. vp$ip/PFR is too close together for V to be a total donk, so we should be able to come up with a reasonable range.

99+, AsKs... then again it IS a donk bet. The issue is that the lower part of V's preflop range folds to a push, but there are hands that have you destroyed that call.

It seems to me V is attempting to level Hero. Lead out and force an obvious overpair to push.

[eugmac]

a 16% PFR raising in the HJ, i think he could have many draws here that can call a shove. my feeling is that his range is likely wider than {99+,AsKs}. Those stats don't really indicate how wide a range he's calling the 3-bet OOP with, though. If he had raised with 87s, is he calling the 3-bet? What about AT? If he seems reasonably bad, I push. Most 25nl players fall into that category. I've also seen this donkbet being done with stuff like 88.

[Fnord]

Ohhh.... I'm a n00b4life!

Everyone says this post-flop line is often a draw, but that's the opposite of my observation. AA is discounted a bunch, KK discounted a bit but wouldn't surprise me. Sets fit, but usually it's a one pair thing like Tx and that's what I would bank on if he played more hands pre-flop.

I wouldn't over-think this and just shove because of the SPR under 3 and the extra money he put in with his donk. If he shows me a better hand here, then I hope I backdoor him good.

[XTR1000]

I cant put in words why I voted "call". We´ll go broke anayway if he has the goods, we don´t fold vs this guy, right? Why then encourage Tx/JJ/QJo and other junk to find a fold?

[XTR1000]

I hope I backdoor him good

this made me lol btw

[jimmy44]

Seeing his stats this guys is not that bad. I know this is 25NL, but let's forget about this for the moment.
Let's try and put him on ranges based on his 4bet call OOP:
66+, QJo+, 87s+, AT+

Which of his range are we WA? I'd say: 87/QJ/JJ/JT/AT
Which of his range are we WB? I'd say: 99/TT/KK/AA
And we are flipping against AKss

Maybe I'm an uber nit but my experience shows that at 25NL, a 4bet is very strong and I'm more inclined to say that we are most often WB.

[Khabbi]

Villain's stats lead me to believe that he's a decent player and not just messing around.

He made a standard rasise PF (4BB + one for each limper), so he must have a decent starting hand, but drawing hands like suited connectors or low pairs are out; he made a raise to isolate to 1-2 players.

His 2/3 pot sized bet doesn't tell us much other than he's not afraid to put money out there. We 3-bet PF, which means that our hand is strong. You don't see a lot of 3-bets at these levels outside of AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ. So he knows that we have a strong hand.

Now the big question, did he just call PF with AA or KK because he knows we're isoloated at that point and doesn't want to scare us off, or is looking for a low flop for his JJ, TT, 99 to be good against our range and flopped a set?

Most likely {AK, AQ, JJ, TT, 99}
Less likely {AA, KK, AJ, 88, 77}

I chose to fold in this scenario.

[allabout]

I cant put in words why I voted "call". We´ll go broke anayway if he has the goods, we don´t fold vs this guy, right? Why then encourage Tx/JJ/QJo and other junk to find a fold?

I agree...call. If you shove, what's calling? AA,KK,JJ,TT,99,T9. You only beat 1 of these hands. He could have 33 for all we know, he is aggro, so if you're willing to lose all your money, might as well try to get him put all his money in there too on a bluff. Plus if you do put him on a hand like AK and A or K comes on turn you can re-evaluate and maybe fold and save yourself a little money. Someone here on FTR says it all the time (maybe spoon??), you're never really pot committed if you think your beat at cash games. Just fold and reload.

[Robb]

If you shove, what's calling? AA,KK,JJ,TT,99,T9. You only beat 1 of these hands.

Yeah, but only 1 of them -- the one we beat -- is at all likely. DUCY?

[XTR1000]

If you shove, what's calling? AA,KK,JJ,TT,99,T9. You only beat 1 of these hands.

Yeah, but only 1 of them -- the one we beat -- is at all likely. DUCY?

I doubt JJ calls a shove

[pokerfan]

given his stats, i call and reevaluate his action on the turn. AsKs/AsQs will shut down on the turn if missed, so we push any blank turn when checked to or he shows obvious weakness .. Also, we fold to his turn shove if he play that way.

[GatorJH]

If you shove, what's calling? AA,KK,JJ,TT,99,T9. You only beat 1 of these hands.

Yeah, but only 1 of them -- the one we beat -- is at all likely. DUCY?

I would love to hear why T9, AA or KK are not likely here (I agree that AA and KK may have flat called the 3-bet knowing it was heads up)

[jimmy44]

given his stats, i call and reevaluate his action on the turn. AsKs/AsQs will shut down on the turn if missed, so we push any blank turn when checked to or he shows obvious weakness .. Also, we fold to his turn shove if he play that way.

The problem I see in calling here is that there are 15 cards bad for us (i.e. 9 spades, 3 Aces & 3 Kings). Those will come about 33% of the time. Furthermore, there is also the possibility that we are already behind ...
The advantage we have is that we have position.

[Robb]

If you shove, what's calling? AA,KK,JJ,TT,99,T9. You only beat 1 of these hands.

Yeah, but only 1 of them -- the one we beat -- is at all likely. DUCY?

I doubt JJ calls a shove

True, but there are other hands in his 3bet calling range that will call a shove here, most of which have 5 - 9 outs. Letting him see another street for free after he's turned his hand into a bluff is -EV, right?

[XTR1000]

nh for creating this thread dude.

jimmy has a good point with all those ugly turn cards out there. These cards are especially bad for our action if he has a made 2nd best. I´ve changed my mind to being totally indifferent between calling and shoving now.

[dev]

Hold on now... he flats a 3-bet OOP, he has low flop agro, donk bets, and JJ or a draw is all we can put him on?

Seriously, is AQ in his range here? Seriously? Seriously?

[pgil]

AA and KK that flat pf are not leading this flop. They flat pf to allow you to bet so that you are committed when they CRAI. This is also why 9T probably would not lead here. The best way for opp to get AI on this flop is a CR given stacks.

I think there are a lot of T's in his range (as well as spades) and that pretty well all of the hands that he is donking will call a push outside of complete air and some of the lower PP's. You may even get a call from 88 or A9 here thinking you have AK. Opps love to put AK in our range. Of course this could all change if we are playing oddly (ie. super aggro, uber nit, etc.)

[pokerfan]

villan's hand strength will be face up on the turn and let us play perfectly in position i dont think he will slow down with his stronger holdings at that point. Shove over his flop donk bet is pretty bad in my opinion considering that we are not even ahead of AsKs. Also, fold on this flop is way too weak after showing so much preflop 3 bet aggression. By the way, i flat call hero's big 3 bet with AA/KK very often and jam the flop later on in my games.

given his stats, i call and reevaluate his action on the turn. AsKs/AsQs will shut down on the turn if missed, so we push any blank turn when checked to or he shows obvious weakness .. Also, we fold to his turn shove if he play that way.

The problem I see in calling here is that there are 15 cards bad for us (i.e. 9 spades, 3 Aces & 3 Kings). Those will come about 33% of the time. Furthermore, there is also the possibility that we are already behind ...
The advantage we have is that we have position.

[dev]

villan's hand strength will be face up on the turn and let us play perfectly in position i dont think he will slow down with his stronger holdings at that point. Shove over his flop donk bet is pretty bad in my opinion considering that we are not even ahead of AsKs.

Good point, but if a scare card falls on the turn and he checks, who's to say we didn't just let him draw out. If we bet we have to commit, if we check we're inviting a bluff on the river (so we don't know where we're at if he bets) AND giving another free card.

Also, fold on this flop is way too weak after showing so much preflop 3 bet aggression.

So we can't fold because we 3-bet pre?

[SaulPaul]

AK and JJ seem to make the most sense here. Seems quite close between calling and folding.

I think i like showving, AK has too many outs, to allow to see turn cheaply. Also if we are putting him on AK/JJ, any ace, king, queen, jack is a scare card. Im also happy getting my money in against AKs.

Note that stacks are perfect for him to CRAI w/ aces or kings

[pokerfan]

villain definitely calls our whole stack shove with AA/KK without thinking twice in these 3 bet pots. i think we are behind on this flop more than 50% of the time if he didnt call with AT and other weak stuff.

24,750 games 0.005 secs 4,950,000 games/sec

Board: Td 3s 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.519% 33.52% 00.00% 8296 0.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 66.481% 66.48% 00.00% 16454 0.00 { KK+, JJ-99, AsKs }

36,630 games 0.005 secs 7,326,000 games/sec

Board: Td 3s 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.928% 47.93% 00.00% 17556 0.00 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 52.072% 52.07% 00.00% 19074 0.00 { KK+, JJ-99, AsKs, ATs, ATo }

AK and JJ seem to make the most sense here. Seems quite close between calling and folding.

I think i like showving, AK has too many outs, to allow to see turn cheaply. Also if we are putting him on AK/JJ, any ace, king, queen, jack is a scare card. Im also happy getting my money in against AKs.

Note that stacks are perfect for him to CRAI w/ aces or kings

[jimmy44]

I think I just had a revelation!
villain has around 200BB and is playing 24/16/3, so it's more then likely he knows (a bit) what he is doing. He bets $7 into a $11 pot OOP knowing that our 4bet range would be JJ-AA and AK, this flop really hits our range, doesn't it? Why would such a villain bet this amount if our range really hit the flop? As SaulPaul correctly said AA-KK will like to CRAI (we have to discount a bit if villain does not have the A or K of spades). It could be that he would like to test if we have AK (although he may know we might push with AK), but most of the time I really think he has 99-TT/T9!!

However, this might be more applicable to higher limits ...

[pgil]

Board: Td 9s 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.923% 64.31% 00.61% 61760 585.50 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 35.077% 34.47% 00.61% 33099 585.50 { 77+, 33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, AQo+, ATo, KTo, QJo, JTo }

I like my range better. More spades, more T's, more draws and a couple of semibluffs w/ lower PP's/Ako etc.

[pgil]

I think I just had a revelation!
villain has around 200BB and is playing 24/16/3, so it's more then likely he knows (a bit) what he is doing. He bets $7 into a $11 pot OOP knowing that our 4bet range would be JJ-AA and AK, this flop really hits our range, doesn't it? Why would such a villain bet this amount if our range really hit the flop? As SaulPaul correctly said AA-KK will like to CRAI (we have to discount a bit if villain does not have the A or K of spades). It could be that he would like to test if we have AK (although he may know we might push with AK), but most of the time I really think he has 99-TT/T9!!

However, this might be more applicable to higher limits ...

again, if we think villain is a capable player and is putting us on a range, then why does he lead when he is ahead here. Sets have even more reason to CRAI than AA/KK. The only hand I see leading here that we are behind (if we assume villain is thinking) is 9T for 2pr that is afraid of a lot of turns.

Other than that, with the obvious draws on board, we are probably betting here close to 100% of the time, and after the bet we are committed if villain can CRAI w/ anything other than the nuts, and he most likely can do this with AKss, JJ, a lot of T's, JQ, etc. Leading when ahead here is a bad play in a vacuum, and since we haven't been given any reason to think there is a history with villain, can assume it is more of a bluff/semibluff/TP than a hand that has us crushed.

[Fnord]

I doubt JJ calls a shove

Where the hell have you been playing poker?

[Fnord]

Why then encourage Tx/JJ/QJo and other junk to find a fold?

Because they're drawing very live and this isn't Priceline.com. You don't get to name your own fucking price when I have a hand.

[jimmy44]

I agree with you that most of my reasoning is that villain is at least thinking about our range.

Leading when ahead here is a bad play in a vacuum, and since we haven't been given any reason to think there is a history with villain, can assume it is more of a bluff/semibluff/TP than a hand that has us crushed.

I undersand what you are saying, but (if he thinks about our range) why would villain bet into us 2/3 pot to make us fold our very strong range? or maybe he wants a push from QQ+/AK?

Sets have even more reason to CRAI than AA/KK. The only hand I see leading here that we are behind (if we assume villain is thinking) is 9T for 2pr that is afraid of a lot of turns.

I could see Sets betting here to put all chips in the flop (due to FD). However, I agree that on a 3bet pot FD are less likely though.

[pokerfan]

anyways, i'm a 100nl-200 NL player and might think very differently. In my games, i proceeded with cautions against standard players who donked out 2/3 pot, especially when i have position.
in these lower stakes games, its probably +EV for QQ shove if villain was a bit clueless and called our huge 3 bet preflop with such wide ranges like pgil pokerstoved.

[Robb]

You guys are awesome!! I've enjoyed this a lot. I don't have time to read every contribution right now, but I will tonight. In the next couple of days, after everyone's contributed, I'll post what happened, along with my full analyses, both the one at the table as it happened, and the post-game rethink.

[Robb]

Of course this could all change if we are playing oddly (ie. super aggro, uber nit, etc.)

Hero is playing 18/16/5 but doubts villain has noticed.

[dev]

Board: Td 9s 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.923% 64.31% 00.61% 61760 585.50 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 35.077% 34.47% 00.61% 33099 585.50 { 77+, 33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, AQo+, ATo, KTo, QJo, JTo }

I like my range better. More spades, more T's, more draws and a couple of semibluffs w/ lower PP's/Ako etc.

If I'm Hero, I'd like that range, too. but it's wishful thinking.

First off, Hero has Qs.

I can't even believe that range is narrow enough to call the 3-bet OOP preflop, and what makes you think so many hands make a donk bet here? the guy runs 24/16/1.4!

[pgil]

Board: Td 9s 3s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 64.923% 64.31% 00.61% 61760 585.50 { QdQs }
Hand 1: 35.077% 34.47% 00.61% 33099 585.50 { 77+, 33, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, KsQs, KsJs, KsTs, QsJs, QsTs, JsTs, AQo+, ATo, KTo, QJo, JTo }

I like my range better. More spades, more T's, more draws and a couple of semibluffs w/ lower PP's/Ako etc.

If I'm Hero, I'd like that range, too. but it's wishful thinking.

First off, Hero has Qs.

I can't even believe that range is narrow enough to call the 3-bet OOP preflop, and what makes you think so many hands make a donk bet here? the guy runs 24/16/1.4!

so take out the Qs from the range, it's still basically the same. I think it's a wide calling range because it's a wide raising range and opp isn't likely thinking about position or our range too deeply and is most likely of the 'in for a penny in for a pound' variety.

I think so many hands donk here because I think all hands that are behind/in doubt are more likely to donk than hands that are ahead/likely ahead, and I think there are a lot more hands that are in the behind category than in the ahead category. I am not saying they should, just that the ahead hands should not/mostly would not donk here.

[GatorJH]

disclaimer - I have soooo much to learn in ring games.

Can we REALLY think of villian as a "thinking" player after 60 hands?

If I put myself (a ring noob at this point with a stat line of 20.56/7.39/.99 over 6,400 hands). My thought process "could" go something like this if I had KK or even AA:

Preflop - I put in a standard raise and then get re-raised. It comes back to me and everyone else has folded. At this point I am putting my opponent on TT+, AQs+, AK+ if I think he is a decent player. If I have AA or KK I may decide to flat call and work on getting the rest in later in the hand. With other hands I would most likely flat call and play for two pair or better.

The Flop: If I am holding either of these two hands and neither of my cards is a spade I am not thrilled with this hand and I certainly wouldn't want to give my opponent the opportunity to see a free card and potentially draw out on me. Heck, I am not thrilled with this flop even if I held a set or two pair so I could very easily see a noob (like myself) leading out here to protect my somewhat vulnerable hand.

Looking at villians stats it appears that he is a bit more LAGGY than my nit self so I think his range here is much closer to pgil's range and personally wouldn't automatically assume he is thinking enough to know that a c/r is his best play if he is ahead in the hand right now.

I also think someone with that stat line is MORE than capable of bluffing at the pot here enough that I think it is +ev to either flat call or shove here (my noob self is still trying to think about which one of these I think is best).

Noob out.

[Robb]

We've gotta stay consistent with our range estimate - I see a lot people worrying about him hitting the flop in a way that seems to me be nearly impossible. He raises 16% of his hands.

all pp's ~ 6%
AJ+, KQ ~ 5%
A7s+, A9+, KJ, QJs, JTs ~ 5%

You can trade pp's 2's - 6's for some sc's/std 1 gappers, but he can't have a lot weak-ass connectors in there like T9 or 87. JTo is possible, but it's at the very limit of his range.

Of these hands, what is he likely to flat the 3bet with? And of the ones he would flat, which ones can be ahead after he bet's 2/3's on the flop?

I won't go into any more details for now, but the 3bet combined with this flop force him to play "cards up." And the action on the flop that makes the very least amount of sense for his likely holdings is a 2/3's pot value bet. He's turned his hand into a bluff.

[mrhappy333]

Villain's stats lead me to believe that he's a decent player and not just messing around.

He made a standard rasise PF (4BB + one for each limper), so he must have a decent starting hand, but drawing hands like suited connectors or low pairs are out; he made a raise to isolate to 1-2 players.

His 2/3 pot sized bet doesn't tell us much other than he's not afraid to put money out there. We 3-bet PF, which means that our hand is strong. You don't see a lot of 3-bets at these levels outside of AA, KK, QQ, AK, AQ. So he knows that we have a strong hand.

Now the big question, did he just call PF with AA or KK because he knows we're isoloated at that point and doesn't want to scare us off, or is looking for a low flop for his JJ, TT, 99 to be good against our range and flopped a set?

Most likely {AK, AQ, JJ, TT, 99} also the other QQ
Less likely {AA, KK, AJ, 88, 77}

I agree here, except I would shove all in here.

[nutsinho]

this is a retardedly easy shove

[bjsaust]

I doubt JJ calls a shove

Where the hell have you been playing poker?

25NL, JJ calls a shove here all day.

[dev]

After the session I just played I'm rethinking putting villains on narrow ranges. The more I play this limit, the more I realize that 80% of these players don't understand simple logic. That whole 10% bluff possibility is expanded by the amount of times this guy's got a hand that just shouldn't be in there... So ok, I change my vote.

Shove.

[Fnord]

After the session I just played I'm rethinking putting villains on narrow ranges. The more I play this limit, the more I realize that 80% of these players don't understand simple logic. That whole 10% bluff possibility is expanded by the amount of times this guy's got a hand that just shouldn't be in there... So ok, I change my vote.

Shove.

You have taken a dangerous first step into much bigger games...

[pgil]

yet another place where Caro comes into play. everyone should read some caro.

There's a good line in the book of tells that is basically - most poker players are deciding whether or not to play hands on a whim.

[Deuce Blue]

So Rob, are we gonna get the results soon???

[Monty3038]

I tend to put players on really tight ranges, my concern here is the damage this causes to my stack if I call and he is sitting on AA or KK, which is where I put him initially, then I refocused and said maybe TT and he hit the set and doesn't want you scared off...

I really think it comes down to feel for me at this point, if things are good, I shove... if I've been running bad or he has been hot the last few hands (I know, it has nothing to do with the odds) I call. So I'm going to put down that I shove but in reality it's a 50% chance I call.

[GatorJH]

After the session I just played I'm rethinking putting villains on narrow ranges. The more I play this limit, the more I realize that 80% of these players don't understand simple logic. That whole 10% bluff possibility is expanded by the amount of times this guy's got a hand that just shouldn't be in there... So ok, I change my vote.

Shove.

You have taken a dangerous first step into much bigger games...

Is that a good dangerous first step or bad one (I am thinking good, but would like to confirm that).

[Robb]

I tend to put players on really tight ranges, my concern here is the damage this causes to my stack if I call and he is sitting on AA or KK, which is where I put him initially, then I refocused and said maybe TT and he hit the set and doesn't want you scared off...

I really think it comes down to feel for me at this point, if things are good, I shove... if I've been running bad or he has been hot the last few hands (I know, it has nothing to do with the odds) I call. So I'm going to put down that I shove but in reality it's a 50% chance I call.

Putting people on tight ranges is only bad if we have the wrong range. AA, KK and TT are all unlikely, though possible, after his flop bet.

"Feel" is very - - - - -EV. Keep working on ranges and it will get easier.

[aka_red]

i think villain has jacks.
i think AA,KK would have pushed PF or check raised all in instead of leading out at the flop.

arr in prease.

[jyms]

The problem I see in calling here is that there are 15 cards bad for us (i.e. 9 spades, 3 Aces & 3 Kings). Those will come about 33% of the time. Furthermore, there is also the possibility that we are already behind ...
The advantage we have is that we have position.

First off, I want to point out that 15 outs are coming 60%+ of the time and we are not getting AsKs to fold with a shove on the flop or turn so if we go with this hand as his possible holdings calling is our best option. We are ahead now and win 40% of the time so I am not folding, and shoving puts us behind if he calls.


As for the hand. This is not AA, KK or a set, 90%+ of the time. As Fnord has said in many posts before. If it is pay him his moneys. Villain raised pre and called a large 3bet with no odds to a set. So even if he hit it, we win. Nobody at these stakes is smart enough to donk into a 3better with a set.

Hands you are losing to are 99, TT and AKspades if you shove. everything else you beat. Calling is wrong since your letting him see later streets with weak draws. Get it in. So many people are willing to put 3 betters or raisers on AK. He calls a shove with tons here including JJ, AK and any Asx, you could even see other pairs.

[Fnord]

Nobody at these stakes is smart enough to donk into a 3better with a set.

Qute often in poker people make great plays for stupid reasons. It's not like there are a whole lot of options. By pure random chance you're bound to hit one that maximizes value every now and then.

Calling is wrong since your letting him see later streets with weak draws.

Also when I play live I like to create the illusion that I'm more willing to play for stacks than I might really be. Otherwise I can't threaten effective stacks by betting less than all-in.

[Robb]

Here's how the hand went. The flop bet has me ready to fold. The mouse is moving, but something looks wrong and I stop, thinking "what could he have here?" I feel like John Nash in a "Beautiful Mind," with cards, outs and odds scrolling through my mind, and everything suddenly jumping out at me, clear as crystal. ISF's strategic bet sizing thread jumps into my head, not that I've done anything strategic, but the flop plus my cards have villain playing his cards face up. Let's take the information we have step by step.

Range: My standard villain NL25 preflop 16% raising range at NL25 is something like:

6% ~ all pp's
5% ~ Premium Broadways: AJ+, KQ ~5% (always)
5% ~ weak Broadways: AJ, AT, KJ, KTs, QJs, JTs, QTs

Not saying all NL25 16% ranges look like this. You can swap out some small pp's and weak Broadways for Ax(s), Kx and maybe T9s. But that's about it. Notice that how you configure the bottom end of villain's range is irrelevant.

Board: Almost none of the big sc's can be suited in a way that helps. Only AKs, AJs and KJs are live, and for KJs we have two blockers for his gutshot. So we have the unlikely either-or option of 2 pair with T9s or set w/ pocket 3's to worry about, but neither is all that likely. And then AK(s) AA, KK, TT, 99 worry us. I didn't go through every hand on the clock, but I went through the groups quickly and realized that this particular combination of my cards + flop made most of his decent hands impossible and cut into most of his odds.

Betting: The thing that really jumped out at me was how unlikely AA, KK were because the preflop action. Hardly any NL25 villains I've seen call 3bets w/ AA or KK - standard line is rr all-in. So they're possible, but unlikely. And how likely is the set? Nearly every microdonk slowplays sets on the flop. Heck, I still have to resist that urge myself. So a set is unlikely - not impossible - because of the flop bet.

New Range: What would he call a 3bet with preflop? Rule out 77 and worse and make the weak broadways less likely. Villains LOVE calling 3bets with Axs, so consider them. Discount AA, KK, TT, 99 because of betting, and what do you have? About 100 possible two-card combinations, and only AKs scares us. Everything else is coin flip or way behind.

Stack Sizes: So we know we're ahead, probably 75% or more of the time here. AK has 6 outs (24% equity), Axs has 8 outs (32%) and nothing else has much that worries us. Our $28.50 stack went toward a $5 preflop bet, and the pot after his $7 flop bet stands at roughly $18.50, leaving us only $16.50 left after we call. So we have to leave him just better than 2:1 pot odds (a coin flip to 8 outs). Our only options on the flop are to shove or fold. There's not enough left behind to call and "wait to see what develops."

Answer - this is the most clear cut "shove all in" situation we'll ever see.

So what happened? I shove, villain calls and flips up KQ, and catches a K on the turn for his 7-outer. I jumped up from the computer cursing and fuming, not because I got sucked out on, but because I finally read a hand perfectly and put a villain on a range - spot on - and played it right. THEN got f****d on the turn.

Thanks for joining the thread. I've learned a lot. I hope you have. Here's the key for me. If you put villain on a range preflop, you have to stick with it. You can't swap new hands in and out of it. Sure, villains do crazy shit at NL25, so you leave some small percentage of "junk" in every range. But you fix a range, and every action afterward has to narrow it, or at least leave it unchanged. Then you play it and see what turns up. And you get better at it. I'm not reading souls, yet. But I feel like I'm finally on the soul-reading path. Hopefully.

[Robb]

As of this post, 28 answered the poll, 75% of which said shove. 4 said call. 3 said fold. Grades are as follows:

B+ for saying "shove"
A+ for knowing why
C- for folding
D- for calling.

What grade did you get?

LoL. I'm a teacher, and I just couldn't help myself there. A bit of "day before Spring Break" stress relief.

[jyms]

Nobody at these stakes is smart enough to donk into a 3better with a set.

Qute often in poker people make great plays for stupid reasons. It's not like there are a whole lot of options. By pure random chance you're bound to hit one that maximizes value every now and then.

This I get, any fool can maximize by accident. I just know that the first place most go to is "slow play and trick him" and even if so, I think we pay sets here all day.

Calling is wrong since your letting him see later streets with weak draws.

Also when I play live I like to create the illusion that I'm more willing to play for stacks than I might really be. Otherwise I can't threaten effective stacks by betting less than all-in.

I have read this several times, and in the context of the flop I am not sure where this is going unless you mean the villain. He certainly is trying to imply

I have really been experimenting more with implied threat concepts. Maybe a raise here is possible without committing to either a well played or accidentally well played, better hand. A raise here says I am willing, are you? Villain does not seem willing too. I think if he wants all in, a C/R would be better.

[XTR1000]

I get D
I suck at poker

[MuddyWicket]

I still would like an answer from Fnord to Gators question cos I was thinking that and would love an elaboration...

A+ for Robb.

[XTR1000]

A+ for Robb.

[wesrman]

More of these type of posts please.
Nice Job Robb.

[pokerfan]

me too. It's just like there are too many stupid zero thinking level donks in 25NL games. I think calling his donk bet in 200NL or above is really ok in deep stack poker..

I get D
I suck at poker

[Deuce Blue]

Why then encourage Tx/JJ/QJo and other junk to find a fold?

Because they're drawing very live and this isn't Priceline.com. You don't get to name your own fucking price when I have a hand.

And this gets an A for the funniest comment on this thread.

And I figured out how to use the damn quote thing. Kick Ass!!!!!!

[jimmy44]

Awesome post!

I get C-
I too I suck at poker!

[Warpe]

Nice job, Robb.

[Robb]

A+ for Robb.

Thanks, guys.

I'll just mention two more things. We have good bit of fold equity with the shove. If he doesn't have TT, 99, AKs, he OUGHT to be worried about us having them since they're in our 3bet range (99 is marginally there).

The last thing I'll contribute here is that I've learned a lot about 3betting. I used to 3bet with a very narrow range, but thinking about this has me opening my 3bet range preflop considerably. We force villain into playing a narrow range if he calls, and he's got very little information about our holdings on a lot of flops. For me, this was the perfect training hand, and I'll get a lot more back out of it than the $30 I lost by all the thinking about ranges and 3betting tactics it provoked.

Hope y'all learned something, too.

[mrhappy333]

Nice job, Robb.

New one every friday?

[wufwugy]

If he donked 5$ instead of 7$ CiB is perfect.

[wufwugy]

Wait this is fullring?

Disregard anything I say. Not that I'm wrong, but fullring is rigged for wufwugies.