Top pair 3bet pot. Anyone ever fold here?

[JL]

Villain = 21/17/2.5; no other reads.

I have Taggy stats.

Poker Room skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $219.40
Button: $657.75
SB: $85.35
Hero: $240.35

Pre-flop: (4 players) Hero is BB with K Q
UTG folds, Button raises to $7, SB folds, Hero raises to $22, Button calls.

Flop: 3 Q 3 ($45, 2 players)
Hero bets $34, Button raises to $100

[dalecooper]

Uncomfortable situation. Certain players would never have worse than KQ here but others would show up with flush draws or pocket pairs JJ or lower, which really complicates your decision. With his stats and no reads (how many hands is that?) I might just let it go.

[jimmy44]

Villain = 21/17/2.5; no other reads.

I have Taggy stats.

I think this makes a tough fold ...
If you were raising PF alot/c-betting/raising flop/... then I think I push because he would call with the following hands you beat: TT-JJ, QJ, FD (At some point even tags don't like to be pushed around and will tilt.

[griffey24]

If I'm 3-betting this hand PF, I'm doing it because I think I'm ahead of his range. If that's the case, i'm certainly not folding this flop.

You have any more comments on history, or how much you've been 3-betting him, or how often he's calling the 3-bets?

You're not behind very many hands (AA/KK/AQ and possibly QQ) but I wouldn't be suprrised if those strong overpairs flatted this flop sometimes too.

If villain is aggressive, raising range on this flop I'd say could potentially be all low pairs (repping the Q), AK/AJ etc, all FD's.

[Roel]

I think this really really depends on ur 3bet/cbet frequency. If u cbet (almost) every 3bet pot it would be +EV for him to raise with any draw/pair.

Since i do both a lot I would call this. The only hand i am really worried about is AQ.

But this gets into the realm of who-has-the-biggest-balls and i get myself in trouble here a lot so i might not be the best person to ask...

edit: make that shove ofcourse. calling would be bad.

[dalecooper]

edit: make that shove ofcourse. calling would be bad.

Would it?

We're imagining that villain's range is some subset of these:

1. AQ/KQ
2. AA/KK
3. flush draw
4. pairs 44-JJ
5. maybe a little feisty air

If we push, the hands that we don't want to call (1 and 2) call, the draws call which is OK for both of us, and the hands we do want to call (4 and 5) fold. If we call, 4 and 5 might bluff-shove the turn and we have a non-zero chance of not getting stacked by hands in categories 1 and 2. We probably end up playing a smaller pot vs. 3 and can check/fold a heart on the river, or check/call anything else.

I suspect that calling here (keeping in mind that you are close to pot committed at that point) might actually be better than pushing. Either way your money is going in but I think you maximize your gain vs. hands you have beat and lessen your loss (even if just slightly) vs. hands that are ahead of you. The only real concern is that you aren't making a flush draw pay to play, but he won't fold the flop to a shove anyway - pot odds are too tasty - so I don't know if that's not a meaningful consideration.

[griffey24]

Dalecooper, there's only a half pot bet left and we're OOP so I think it seems silly not to shove here.

Whats our alternative? Call and then check the turn oop, and villain checks through with his draw and doesn't put any more money if he misses the river?

If there was more money behind, then I think more of a case could be made for flatting. In this case, just shove it, and be surprised when villain puts you on some draw and calls you with midpairs sometimse even cause he's "pot committed".

[dalecooper]

Based on the money behind I think you're right. I made a mistake quick-calculating that and thought it was going to be 140 into a pot of 200, not 120 into a pot of 240. Obviously if you flat that flop raise, the villain won't think he has much fold equity, which reduces how much you'll make off his bluffs with worse hands. Also because it's a smaller shove you will get called more by some hands you have beat, so that's not a bad thing.

However, if a magic fairy put another hundred bucks in your stack mid-hand here, I think my argument stands.

[bode]

i shove this pretty quick if youve been 3betting/cbetting a decent amount.

also, i would like to meet this magic fairy dale

[Galapogos]

No 3-bet history? If not, stick it in and if you're behind call it a cooler. Probably shouldn't 3-bet this hand OOP without a read though or some 3-bet history. Yeah you're ahead of his button open range but this guy's likely not calling your first 3-bet with dominated hands. I think you're better off setting up some history with him before you start repopping this hand against him for value.

[JL]

Yeah it was the first time I 3bet him this session. Sorry I should have mentioned that. That was one of the biggest reasons why I folded this. I figured my image was good, and he wouldn't be playing back at me too often here with worse.
However, after I folded, I thought to myself that it was a horrible fold. If I am going to 3-bet KQ, then I just can't fold it on one of the best flops for that hand.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Yeah it was the first time I 3bet him this session. Sorry I should have mentioned that. That was one of the biggest reasons why I folded this. I figured my image was good, and he wouldn't be playing back at me too often here with worse.
However, after I folded, I thought to myself that it was a horrible fold. If I am going to 3-bet KQ, then I just can't fold it on one of the best flops for that hand.

Sure you can fold KQ, but only with a read that the guy doesnt bluff or raise fd's here.

Obv snap shove this raise size is a fd a lot anyways.