3 bet vs Fnord, he moves in on your c-bet

[Fnord]

You have me at a 14% PFR over a small sample size. Table is kinda tightish with a soft spot.
Fnord probably knows you're a TAgg with an under 10% PFR.

What do you put me on here?
Call or fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($198.35)
You ($218.40)
MP3 ($95.75)
CO ($153.05)
Button ($40)
SB ($267.35)
BB ($247.75)
UTG ($115.80)
UTG+1 ($197)

Preflop: You has K, K.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $8, You raise to $28, 5 folds, Fnord thinks... calls $20.

Flop: ($59) Q, 3, J (2 players)
Fnord checks, You bet $42, Fnord thinks... raises to $170.35

[BankItDrew]

I'm putting Fnord on AQ, 33, JJ+

[badgers]

AA/(QQ)/JJ/33 I fold. I think AA is most likely due to the possible hand combinations and QQ is least likely because I think you'd probs 4bet it, depending on how wide I 3bet.

[XTR1000]

My pfr never drops below 13% , considering that a smart Fnord wouldn´t show up w/ 33/QJ here, but has AQ/AA, JJ/QQ/AK would´ve probably been 4bet. I gamble with him.

On original scenario: Fnords raise scares the shit out of nits. Fnord has QQ/JJ well balanced w/ AK bluffs I guess and we must fold. Thats why it sucks to have an one-figure pfr.

[pokerfan]

i put Fnord on JJ+ and fold KK on this Q high dry flop. If i spot a tilt donkey Fnord, i'd call in this situation for sure :P

[MuddyWicket]

3 bets are rare at my pond depth.

given your position I reckon your probably raising 10% preflop. I'm curious to see if you fold AQ to the 3bet because this is probably the minimum he is 3betting you with aside from pairs? Some one who raises less than 10% preflop is going be 3 betting with less than 5% imo, which puts AQ on the edge of their range.

$270 pot $130 to call. need 33%. I think Fnords represented range is QQ or JJ which is unlikely and like the fish I am I call. Except for the fact I look him up with trash every time he fast plays because I never believe him. Also I don't get why he is shoving against what is most likely a single pair hand or wiffed AK. Seems to me like a bluff or value extraction from someone who can't fold an over pair in a 3 bet pot like me.

I can't fold.

[MuddyWicket]

oh yeah also my hand is the nutz, hand over the chips please.

[Seabass]

So I'm a random nit. I 3b from utg+1, so my range here is big pairs with a few AK for bad balance.

Flop is scary, I bet, yay me. Fnord push. Given the small sample of hands I'm going to assume that Fnord has a big hand. I dont think it's +ev to try to push a rather unknown nit of his narrow range here after the 3bet.

So I should fold and I'm going to guess that Fnord has JJ.

Even if he is balancing I doubt it's going to be balanced enough to make calling the better play. Someone who aint lazy could perhaps run some numbers on that.

I think the key here is the small number of hands, but I've been wrong before.

[pgil]

def. think fnord would put more in pf vs. our obviously strong hand. we are too nitty to fold to it here too. So that kinda rules out AA.

QQ/JJ seem most likely, outside shot at 33/AQ/KQ/QJ. Also depends a little on if the previously mentioned soft spot is in the blinds on this hand as to the original raising requirements. Fnord might call our 3bet a little lighter knowing he is going to stack us more often than not if he hits.

I would give more creedence to a semibluff of some sort here if we had played more hands, and fnord knew we could lay down a hand postflop. given our tight nature and the small sample size, it is doubtful that he has seen us play many hands at all postflop. this leads me to rule out AK as a likely holding.

On balance, I personally would call, but that is probably a big hole in my game. I don't like folding overpairs to taggy players in reraised pots.

[jimmy44]

I can put Fnord on AK/AA/QQ/JJ.
AK & QQ/JJ are quite balanced, however, adding AA (notice the thinking PF and postflop) makes this a fold, I believe.
If we have a PFR of <5 then we can add 33 in Fnord's hand.

[bigslikk]

I fold. We have represented a strong hand before and on the flop, to get reraised all-in. Either he's got an overpair beat, or he's bluffing. Assuming he's doesn't have air, we're dead v. a set at worst and have even (zero) equity versus QJ at best. Fold.

[Deanglow]

This is the easiest fold ever. Fnord knows what I have and wouldn't try and get some random terrible 200NL nit regular off of AA or KK here.

[dev]

This is the easiest fold ever. Fnord knows what I have and wouldn't try and get some random terrible 200NL nit regular off of AA or KK here.

we have him at 14% pfr over a small sample size. I don't know a goddamn thing about 200nl, maybe by the time I get there my ideas will change. Right now, if I see a guy with 14% pfr over a small sample size, I consider him a lagtard until proven otherwise (despite the fact that I generally run higher than that). Call.

[Seabass]

This is the easiest fold ever. Fnord knows what I have and wouldn't try and get some random terrible 200NL nit regular off of AA or KK here.

we have him at 14% pfr over a small sample size. I don't know a goddamn thing about 200nl, maybe by the time I get there my ideas will change. Right now, if I see a guy with 14% pfr over a small sample size, I consider him a lagtard until proven otherwise (despite the fact that I generally run higher than that). Call.

Well we are running a lower then 10% pfr, so we are the random nit in his eyes. That said, perhaps the point is that we dont know Fnord is a thinking player at all but only a random dude running 14% pfr. It's like info we dont know if we should adding.

[elipsesjeff]

This is probably a fold against most nits.

[MuddyWicket]

surely a randomn nit will bet once again on either street with AA/KK and by then is glued to the pot which is why QQ JJ doesn't need to shove back here. Shoving just allows the weaker parts of our range to get away with least damage, even if we intend to continue with check fold after our cbet because we wiffed.

Also because you are all saying fold there also must be a lot of fold equity against a nit because the only hand you are not folding is JJ and QQ. In a way that widens someones shove range.

I still struggle not to call even if the only hand we beat is AQ. I feel like I'm bonkers. I also don't see any 8+ out draws here so I can't see why someone shoves here which is the only remaining excuse to do so.

To the shove we auto fold everything apart from JJ+, if we add KK to that we are stuffed imo.

[Fnord]

MuddyWicket seems about a half a step further down the rabbit hole...

[MuddyWicket]

should I stop digging? my brain is hurtin...please put me out of my misery.

[Warpe]

Our nitty stats + probably rare 3-bet allow Fnord to put us on a close to exact hand. Sets don't usually shove here which is why we call and why Fnord shoves a set.

[MuddyWicket]

ah now that makes sense to me. the relief....ty

[Pasta]

I flopped a strong overpair on a dry board with an SPR of 3. I think I have to call Fnord here. If he is set hunting me with 10.5:1 odds, then he is losing money in the long run. If he called with AA, then its a cooler. If his range is wider than AA/JJ/QQ/33, its a definite call.

If I fold this, I might as well stop 3-betting him completely. The metagame consequences are huge.

[Deanglow]

we have him at 14% pfr over a small sample size. I don't know a goddamn thing about 200nl, maybe by the time I get there my ideas will change. Right now, if I see a guy with 14% pfr over a small sample size, I consider him a lagtard until proven otherwise (despite the fact that I generally run higher than that). Call.

WOW I never thought I would see the day when 14% pfr was considered a lagtard.

[dev]

we have him at 14% pfr over a small sample size. I don't know a goddamn thing about 200nl, maybe by the time I get there my ideas will change. Right now, if I see a guy with 14% pfr over a small sample size, I consider him a lagtard until proven otherwise (despite the fact that I generally run higher than that). Call.

WOW I never thought I would see the day when 14% pfr was considered a lagtard.

Maybe it's just that I'm used to incredibly passive 25nl. I was on a table today running 10/10 (card-dead) over ~50 hands and I had the highest pfr% on the table.

[Fnord]

I can't stand to play any flavor of hold'em with a PFR under 10%

[IowaSkinsFan]

I never fold here. Always call. I will not give Fnord credit for shoving top set or midset on this board at a high enough frequency to make me want to fold, nor should he be shoving QQ/JJ/33 with a high frequency. Even if we used a strict range of 33, JJ+, and AQ with no weight it's probably really really close.

[Ltrain]

What do I have as Fnord's VPIP? If it is around 15% (which I will have to assume if we are trying to predict a standard TAG play) I would have to read this as a set and fold.

I have a rule that 15 VPIP or lower villians do not open or coldcall any suited connectors outside of the blinds, just pocket pairs, although I would expect premium iso plays in lp. K,K or A,A would have 4 bet me pf; only a loose player would call with anything other than a pocket pair, possibly A,K (which would likely check-fold this flop if he is a typical TAG at around 15%VPIP). Since the open/call out of Fnord is in EP-MP than this would put even greater weight to being Q,Q or J,J by virtue of the open, big bet pf call and not a pf fold.

I would need very solid reads to think Fnord is bluffing with the checkraise push. If this is a bluff, gh.

[Ltrain]

I never fold here. Always call. I will not give Fnord credit for shoving top set or midset on this board at a high enough frequency to make me want to fold, nor should he be shoving QQ/JJ/33 with a high frequency. Even if we used a strict range of 33, JJ+, and AQ with no weight it's probably really really close.

It may be the difference for me being at 100NL, but if Fnord is a typical TAG regular (again, me making assumptions), then he is check calling me on the flop with A,Qo, K,K and A,A (about the only time I see a check call from this type of player), and will likely bet into me on the river with a value bet if I check the turn.

[Fnord]

He is check calling me on the flop with A,Qo, K,K and A,A (about the only time I see a check call from this type of player), and will likely bet into me on the river with a value bet if I check the turn.

Check/calling the flop then checking a non-K/T turn would be a really really terrible line with AA and just kinda bad with sets. DUCY?

What does Fnord put you on?

Also, understand that the bigger players here (particularly the ones that play short) aren't used to tight ranges.

[Ltrain]

He is check calling me on the flop with A,Qo, K,K and A,A (about the only time I see a check call from this type of player), and will likely bet into me on the river with a value bet if I check the turn.

Check/calling the flop then checking a non-K/T turn would be a really really terrible line with AA and just kinda bad with sets. DUCY?

What does Fnord put you on?

No argument here, just because I see it doesn't make it correct. If I am under 10%pfr Fnord has to put me on J,J+, A,K pf, and his push eliminates J,J and Q,Q which would obv. call.

[Fnord]

I put the other guy on:
80% AK/AQs+/JJ+
20% Other crap

[Ltrain]

I put the other guy on:
80% AK/AQs+/JJ+
20% Other crap

I think I am reading stats from your example incorrectly. Without a stated VPIP I am reading from your example Villian as being in rock ranges (10% VPIP or under) and Fnord as standard TAG range (around 15% VPIP). If this is incorrect, my ranges are too narrow.

[Seabass]

I put the other guy on:
80% AK/AQs+/JJ+
20% Other crap

I would say 90/10. If we had more hands that pointed to another of the many random nits it would be 99/1, since I would be stunned if one of them did something creative.

Add this..

If he is set hunting me with 10.5:1 odds, then he is losing money in the long run. If he called with AA, then its a cooler.

And some..

QQ JJ doesn't need to shove back here.

And you have someone who aint fun to try to push out.

And I question the AQ/33 hands.

[Fnord]

PFR and 3-bet ranges aren't a tight correlation in my observation. Given where I opened from, that I don't think he thinks I'm really far out of line and his position he's going to have the goods quite often.

I would say 90/10. If we had more hands that pointed to another of the many random nits it would be 99/1, since I would be stunned if one of them did something creative.

TT/AQo is including in my crap range and some folks will 3-bet them.

Outside of total multi-tabling robotic nits like Spoonitnow, people are pretty erratic. You could observe him play 10k hands with that 3-bet range and never showdown anything but JJ+/AK/AQs

[Miffed22001]

how often are you expecting pfr 10% to fold?

[Fnord]

how often are you expecting pfr 10% to fold?

I expect AK and most of his crap to fold here.
AQ/KQ (other crap) usually folds, sometimes looks me up.
KK sometimes folds, sometimes calls (hence this post to validate this)
QQ/JJ fistpumpcall
AA almost always calls, folds once a blue moon

From there do the math. I didn't bother because I wasn't bluffing.

[Miffed22001]

how often are you expecting pfr 10% to fold?

I expect AK and most of his crap to fold here.
AQ/KQ (other crap) usually folds, sometimes looks me up.
KK sometimes folds, sometimes calls (hence this post to validate this)
QQ/JJ fistpumpcall
AA almost always calls, folds once a blue moon

From there do the math. I didn't bother because I wasn't bluffing.

the math said you'd have to call the 3bet range super tight, so i guess your shove = pwned which youve pretty much just said anyways.

[Fnord]

Anyway, here is the hand minus my push.

Was re-visiting this considering my options for value extraction at this point in the hand....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($198.35)
MP2 ($218.40)
MP3 ($95.75)
CO ($153.05)
Button ($40)
SB ($267.35)
BB ($247.75)
UTG ($115.80)
UTG+1 ($197)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $8, MP2 raises to $28, 5 folds, Fnord calls $20.

Flop: ($59) Q, 3, J (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets $42...

[Pasta]

the math said you'd have to call the 3bet range super tight, so i guess your shove = pwned which youve pretty much just said anyways.

I have a hard time believing the math because the results seems counterintuitive:

Opponents range Chance opponent is willing to felt the flop
Other crap 20.00% 6.60%
AK 28.57% 9.43%
AQ 28.57% 9.43%
AA 10.71% 10.71%
KK 10.71% 8.38%
QQ 10.71% 6.47%
JJ 10.71% 4.92%

Total chance opponent will felt the flop: 0.56%

Which means with a random flop, we can expect the opponent to fold to our push a little less than half the time. This is too low to make money with our sets, but too high to make money with SCs. I am pretty sure we can't profitably push QQ here either. So the only hands that can profitably call this 3-bet are AA and KK? Am I missing something?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Anyway, here is the hand minus my push.

Was re-visiting this considering my options for value extraction at this point in the hand....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($198.35)
MP2 ($218.40)
MP3 ($95.75)
CO ($153.05)
Button ($40)
SB ($267.35)
BB ($247.75)
UTG ($115.80)
UTG+1 ($197)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $8, MP2 raises to $28, 5 folds, Fnord calls $20.

Flop: ($59) Q, 3, J (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets $42...

I call here most of the time. I mean if he wants to two barrel AK or something better for us, if he wants to make a random pure bluff great as well. But let's not give him an excuse to fold KK/AQ/KQ. I know i said id call here, but i doubt a 200nl FR nit would ever find a fold with those hands if you just flat the flop.

[Miffed22001]

Anyway, here is the hand minus my push.

Was re-visiting this considering my options for value extraction at this point in the hand....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Fnord ($198.35)
MP2 ($218.40)
MP3 ($95.75)
CO ($153.05)
Button ($40)
SB ($267.35)
BB ($247.75)
UTG ($115.80)
UTG+1 ($197)

Preflop: Fnord is MP1 with A, A.
2 folds, Fnord raises to $8, MP2 raises to $28, 5 folds, Fnord calls $20.

Flop: ($59) Q, 3, J (2 players)
Fnord checks, MP2 bets $42...

I call here most of the time. I mean if he wants to two barrel AK or something better for us, if he wants to make a random pure bluff great as well. But let's not give him an excuse to fold KK/AQ/KQ. I know i said id call here, but i doubt a 200nl FR nit would ever find a fold with those hands if you just flat the flop.

how would you play the turn then?

[Fnord]

A large % of our opponent's range is AK.
I stack off to QQ/JJ, I split with AA and I will probably stack KK whatever I do, so I didn't consider them worth thinking too much about.

If he has a clue at all, he's going to check blank turns behind for 4 outs twice and two overs that might be good but he doesn't really want to felt. That ruled out any check/call, check based line.

I ruled out donking the flop because I think he's betting here a very large % of the time with hands that can't call anything nor do I have cause to think a flop donk would get raised light. It might even lose value against KK.

Leaving me with:
check/click-it-back
check/~$100
check/shove
check/call, turn donk (check/fold a turned ten)

[Setzy]

I actually thought you had aces because of what you posted in the original hand history about (thinking) before you called. Of course nobody's going to believe me since the results are out in the open, but I'm glad I got one dead on (GO ME!)

Most of this has been discussed, but:
FR players with 10% PFR (TOTAL): you have to positionally adjust your range for him reraising you in MP2 or whatever it is. People just don't 3-bet here in FR midstakes without something big when they have plenty of people to act behind. To be honest in my experience, is this JJ a much smaller % of the time than QQ+/AK.

The flop is pretty gross for your AA but you aren't folding, and you might as well get it in before it gets any worse. (only thing worse I guess would be TJQ flop, or an evil T showing up on the turn if you check/call. Nice hand.

[Miffed22001]

I actually thought you had aces because of what you posted in the original hand history about (thinking) before you called. Of course nobody's going to believe me since the results are out in the open, but I'm glad I got one dead on (GO ME!)

Most of this has been discussed, but:
FR players with 10% PFR (TOTAL): you have to positionally adjust your range for him reraising you in MP2 or whatever it is. People just don't 3-bet here in FR midstakes without something big when they have plenty of people to act behind. To be honest in my experience, is this JJ a much smaller % of the time than QQ+/AK.

The flop is pretty gross for your AA but you aren't folding, and you might as well get it in before it gets any worse. (only thing worse I guess would be TJQ flop, or an evil T showing up on the turn if you check/call. Nice hand.

oddly enough i put him on aces from the moment i read the HH but thats irrelevant.