200NL deep against nit

[Deanglow]

Guy is 8/5 over a few hundred hands, don't remember any hands played with him. I bet out a lot of flops; he might know this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

MP2 ($343)
CO ($229.55)
Button ($438.15)
SB ($206.30)
Hero ($395.95)
UTG ($40)
UTG+1 ($42)
MP1 ($180)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 8.
4 folds, CO calls $2, Button calls $2, 1 fold, Hero checks.

Flop: ($7) 2, T, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $4, CO folds, Button calls $4.

Turn: ($15) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $12, Button raises to $42, Hero calls $30.

River: ($99) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $98, Hero

[Fnord]

Would he even play KJ offsuit? Call the flop with it?

This SCREAMS set. I would 3-ball the turn and shove the river.

[d0zer]

What's the reasoning behind the turn call? Seems that villain likes his hand enough to call a re-raise, plus there's a FD out there...shouldn't we be more aggressive on the turn?

And is there any question we should try to get it in on the river? Are 200NL nits so nitty that even the 2nd nuts isn't enough to play for stacks against em'?

I Agree with Fnord -- this looks waaay more like a set than it does KJ. A 8/5 limping KJ on the BU with a limper behind? 3% limp = only PPs, right?

[BankItDrew]

Would he even play KJ offsuit? Call the flop with it?

This SCREAMS set. I would 3-ball the turn and shove the river.

[Deanglow]

I was planning on c/raising the river until I saw his pot-sized bet. I'm not sure if 3-betting the turn and shoving the river gets any worse hands to call.

[Fnord]

I'm not sure if 3-betting the turn and shoving the river gets any worse hands to call.

Sets will almost never fold before the river.

[spoonitnow]

Haha get this shit: if villain's range is 22, TT, 99, QQ, KJ, (which seems somewhat reasonable), then we have exactly 50% equity. The combinations of each of the above hands are 22(3), TT(3), 99(3), QQ(3), and KJ(12). Note that the rake is not a factor since it caps when the pot reaches $60. So as played, I think it's a call on the river since sometimes he'll get away from 22.

On the turn, however, I think we have to reraise to protect our hand.

[HybridTt]

He could easily have QcJc, 109, 8c7c that hes semi bluffing with, re raise the turn for VALUE and shove the river.

[reprisal]

If villian is 8/5 are 99, TT and QQ really in his button limping range? QQ pretty much never.
If we can trust the stats 3% = 22-88
22,99 or something like QcJc or other suited connector seems to make the most sense.

[elipsesjeff]

He could easily have QcJc, 109, 8c7c that hes semi bluffing with, re raise the turn for VALUE and shove the river.

Villain is never semibluffing here.

I think I agree with Fnord's line but I was gonna say NH before he posted and gave his thoughts. FWIW, KJ is in his range but not as much as sets.

[Seabass]

It's somewhat strange that villan only calls the flop if it's a set. When the nit only calls it's more often some sort of draw. So KcJc springs to mind. But that is so thin that I would need a realy solid read on him to even begin to go there.

We dont realy have info that he is good postflop. But if it is a set, villan cant be happy with the way he played it.

[Deanglow]

I flatted and he had KJos LDO. Running bad and playing like a pussy has its benefits sometimes IMO