50NL - Fold this boat?

[Keilah]

Opp was 21/14 over 200 hands and seemed to be skillful. Had won 8/13 showdowns. As I see it he's representing AK the whole hand - maybe I should have shoved the turn.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

CO ($16.05)
Button ($52.55)
SB ($62.15)
BB ($9.25)
UTG ($47.75)
UTG+1 ($50)
MP1 ($30.15)
MP2 ($46.15)
Hero ($41.95)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with J, J. CO posts a blind of $0.50. MP1 posts a blind of $0.75.
UTG raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $3, 4 folds.

Flop: ($8) 8, J, K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $5, UTG calls $5.

Turn: ($18) K (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $13.5, UTG calls $13.50.

River: ($45) A (2 players)
UTG bets $26.25 (All-In), Hero ??

[Deanglow]

I've had wet dreams about situations like this.

[Keilah]

I've had wet dreams about situations like this.

Sounds like that means you'd call here? What range do you put him on? I don't see any likely flushes here, AQ/TT/99 would have folded the flop or the turn, AJ is a stretch since there is only one J left in the deck, QQ is unlikely to wake up and push here (unless he's a thinking player and even then how does he know I don't have AK)?

The only hands that legitimately play this line are AK/AA/88/KK in order of likelihood, and the only of those that I'm ahead of are the 88 hands. There is also a chance of a bluff, but how much?

Numbers say to me that he has 10 possible hands that beat me and 3 that I beat. Pot odds are about 5:3, so if he's bluffing (or being a total donk who thinks his KQ is good) about 15% of the time it's a breakeven call. His preflop stats suggest this could be a good call, but his overall aggression factor was 1.39, which is not all that high and makes me want to fold.

Anything I'm missing? Thoughts?

[badgers]

Pot odds are more like 3:1 not 5:3 so call but I'm not all that happy about it. Also pushing the turn because you put him on AK would just be retarded. You'll stack him in three streets why would you want to make hm think about folding by shoving 2x pot?

[pokerfan]

its a no-brainer call on the river given such huge odds. His c/c line sounds like to me a FD and hit the river(14% pfr wide range). I felt this and stack off with my boat every single time. Also, what made you so sure that his range could be narrowed down to AK only?

[Miffed22001]

i dont like your turn bet size, when we then look at pot odds on river

[pgil]

AK would/should be making some sort of bet before the river to protect against all of the draws out there. CR on the turn being the most likely, if he is going to go for a c/c line on the flop that is.

He is playing it like he's got the flush draw, maybe the straight draw, maybe some sort of combo. Give him credit for them and snapcall. I think the only hand you are legitimately behind here is KK for quads, and if you are, so what.

[Muzzard]

He isn't repping AK when he c/c's this turn.

[Vrax]

Are you really considering laying this down on river?

If he checks that flop with Kings, KJ or AK, then just calls your flop bet without having you on "raging spewing spree", then he isn't as skillful as you think.

i dont like your turn bet size, when we then look at pot odds on river

It's a great bet IMO. It leads any K to Destackville and may even get some chips vs already dead flush/straight draws.

[d0zer]

Basically the only time I fold a boat is in board 2pr/trip situations, and even then I gotta have a good reason.

If that's a leak then fuck this stupid game I'm gunna go play bridge

[Deanglow]

Anything I'm missing? Thoughts?

These are the kind of situations where it is less important to put someone on a range. On this board, all you need to think about is getting the money in because you are beat like 10% or so of the time.

[martindcx1e]

Do NOT fold this especially after putting 1/2 your stack in. There are 3 clubs and a pair on the board. There are LOTS of worse hands out there. This is such an easy fist-pump call.

Also, how do you put him on AK after c/c the flop?

[Keilah]

Ah I made a mistake thinking about this hand, and didn't even realize until after, but I thought he was betting into me and I was calling the flop and turn - that's why I said I should shove turn, and also supports the range I thought he was on.
Oh and I also got the pot odds wrong, wow I feel superdumb but here's the lesson kids: Multitabling while watching a movie while high really DOES have an effect on your play!