Draw = Shove 25nl

[Robb]

Villain is 25/14/1.7 over 200 hands. Shove the turn?

$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($38.81)
UTG 1 ($82.38)
Hero ($23.54)
BTN ($19.40)
SB ($47.21)
BB ($47.74)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO
2 folds, Hero raises to $1.1, 1 fold, SB calls $1, 1 fold

Flop: ($2.45, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.72, SB calls $1.72

Turn: ($5.89, 2 players)
SB bets $3.44, Hero goes all-in $20.72, SB calls $17.28

[meeloche]

yes

edit{i guess this sorta close cause his stats aren't super donkish but I think I still play it the same as you.}

[Robb]

For the interested: http://weaktight.com/176234

[dalecooper]

I don't like it. His numbers are pretty standard for mediocre players at those stakes, which means that his line (call raise, check/call flop, then lead the turn) yells out "I HAVE A HAND," and he's likely not folding to your push - so your fold equity is a lot lower than you'd like, and parts of your draw may be dirty. I think the low end of his range is like KQ, and pretty often he has QJ, AK, 89, 33, or TT. I suspect under the circumstances I'd rather call and get it in on a diamond or king river, call or value bet an 8 (probably), and fold if you miss and he bets. (An ace is a clear check behind or fold.)

I'd like to see a lot more risk analysis going on around here with regard to these type of hands. I feel like there's a new(ish) philosophy of playing any good draw hard and fast, but with just one card to come and a non-awful player showing strength, there's a lot weighing against this kind of move.

[badgers]

12 outs is 3:1 his bet gives us nearly that so let's just call and get him with the implied odds ldo.

[Deanglow]

Call the turn please.

[Alexos]

I think he has 2pair or better a lot, so yah call turn

[Robb]

Thx - in hindsight, I overestimated my fold equity. Shoulda called.

[bjsaust]

This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.

I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.

[pankfish]

This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.

I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.

they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though.

[swiggidy]

This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.

I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.

they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though.

They'll fold if they haven't shown any initiative. I would expect to get called here a lot.

[pankfish]

This will almost never result in a fold at $25NL.

I basically cut semi-bluffing from my game at this level, especially for big bets. People at 25NL dont fold in big pots.

they do on stars. I don't shove the turn a lot here though.

They'll fold if they haven't shown any initiative. I would expect to get called here a lot.

Yeah, I agree this isn't a good spot to do it.