QJsooted 3-way 3-bet pot

[JL]

Three-bettor is solid Tagg who could be 3-betting light here because I have opened the last 4 hands in a row.

SB is a slightly-passive donkey so his range is wide.

I have a Laggy image.


No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $245.05
CO: $164.95
Button: $194.00
SB: $221.85
BB: $203.00

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with Q J
Hero raises to $7, CO folds, Button raises to $21, SB calls, BB folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 5 J 8 ($65, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $39

Is bet/folding here the best line?

[BigLRIP]

I check to see what BU does, aswell to see how the SB reacts if he bets. I don't think the BU is firing air with SB's overcall preflop. I don't think preflop is very good either.

[silu73]

I like a flop lead here but I might fold to a solid re-raise. Preflop is standard given donk in SB has a +100BB stack.

[EzDuzIt]

i think i would rather just fold pre

[zook]

I don't like the call pre-flop. I either fold or 4bet bluff to ~$60 if I really think he's 3betting light. As played b/f is fine, c/f is fine, even c/c if sb folds and you think button won't fire another barrel with air.

[Galapogos]

I really don't like the call preflop. If you really believe he could be 3-betting light why not 4-bet? You're in a very credible position for it and it costs about as much as whatever you'll end up doing post-flop here. Yeah that's kind of results oriented but there's so much dead money in preflop. Plus, post-flop you're so rarely going to flop a monster that you're going to be in a lot of marginal situations that you're unsure of. For instance this is about as good of a flop as you can expect and it's still an ugly spot.

However, all that being said, just fold preflop. It's just QJ. Plus, just because you've recently opened 4 hands in a row it's still not likely he's going to be defending his button against your UTG open. And if he is, good for him, he gets your 7 bucks.

[minSim]

I don't like the call pre-flop. I either fold or 4bet bluff to ~$60 if I really think he's 3betting light. As played b/f is fine, c/f is fine, even c/c if sb folds and you think button won't fire another barrel with air.

Zook, could you confirm or disaffirm these 2 things for me?
- By 4-betting to 60 we always fold to a shove by BTN.
- If we assume BTN shoves AK as well, we're committed if we 4-bet larger than 60 (which is why 60 is such a good betsize).

Also, could you answer these questions;
- How did you come to the size of 60?
- Do you think b/f to 60 is more +EV than shoving, if we assume villain folds AK to our shove?
- If we call like hero and c/c flop, what's hero's best river line? (assuming turn checks through and no A/K/Q/J or 2 diamonds are falling)

[zook]

- By 4-betting to 60 we always fold to a shove by BTN.

yes

- If we assume BTN shoves AK as well, we're committed if we 4-bet larger than 60 (which is why 60 is such a good betsize).

Well, I just pulled $60 out of the air because I didn't feel like doing the calculation. But I just did it and if button shoves JJ+/AK, we're a 2.4:1 dog. If he shoves QQ+/AK, we're a 2.5:1 dog. If he shoves and SB folds, it will be $134 for us to call to win a $277 pot, so we're getting a little over 2:1 odds. So really we could bet up to ~$70 and still fold to a raise. Obviously when you're bluffing you want to use the smallest bet that's effective and I think that $60 looks scary enough from an utg raiser.

- Do you think b/f to 60 is more +EV than shoving, if we assume villain folds AK to our shove?

Shoving is definitely more +EV if it makes him fold AK, because that's a large part of his range and he probably isn't folding it to a raise to $60. But I'm not sure that all villains do fold AK to a shove (even though they should unless they know you're loco). Obviously shoving increases variance.

- If we call like hero and c/c flop, what's hero's best river line? (assuming turn checks through and no A/K/Q/J or 2 diamonds are falling)

c/c I think

[meeloche]

This is such an awesome spot to 4 bet light, and heres no way he's folding AK to a 4 bet or a shove here.

If I know he can 3 bet hands other than the nuts I'm 4 betting here.

4 betting>folding>calling imo.

[zook]

A good study question is how much of your 4bet shoving range has to be made up of stuff like QJs (as opposed to QQ+,AK) for calling with AK to be correct?

[d0zer]

Three-bettor is solid Tagg who could be 3-betting light here because I have opened the last 4 hands in a row.
Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is UTG with Q J
Hero raises to $7, CO folds, Button raises to $21, SB calls, BB folds, Hero folds.

Even if it's a wide 3-bet range, if he's a solid TAGG, then isn't his 3-betting range still largely ahead of QJ? That + OOP = fold.

I may be a FR nit, but even this laggy FR player isn't touching this hand here...

(edit: sorry for the dead horse beating...

[nutsinho]

i call preflop 100% of the time because of SB's money. It's a fold/4bet for sure if he's not in the hand but I don't think it's that close to a fold with him in. I also hate 4bet bluffing after someone cold calls a 3bet. That's generally terrible poker.

[c-luvin]

I would never ever 4-bet bluff here. SB is a passive donk who coldcalls a bet-3bet. How does a passive donk play AA or KK to a raise and reraise before him pre? Reopening the action to him is a bad bad idea.
that being said if you want to call like you did (and i probably would) you cant be in love with a flopped 1 pair. Definately check it to the two players who might have a huge hand before you put any more of your money in the pot.

[minSim]

- If we assume BTN shoves AK as well, we're committed if we 4-bet larger than 60 (which is why 60 is such a good betsize).

Well, I just pulled $60 out of the air because I didn't feel like doing the calculation. But I just did it and if button shoves JJ+/AK, we're a 2.4:1 dog. If he shoves QQ+/AK, we're a 2.5:1 dog. If he shoves and SB folds, it will be $134 for us to call to win a $277 pot, so we're getting a little over 2:1 odds. So really we could bet up to ~$70 and still fold to a raise. Obviously when you're bluffing you want to use the smallest bet that's effective and I think that $60 looks scary enough from an utg raiser.

Isn't it 134 to call for a 263 pot? making it a little under 2:1.
Indeed with 70 we're still not committed, with 80 we are...but thats too much of an overbet anyway. I must have done something wrong in my first calcs...thanks for pointing it out.

A good study question is how much of your 4bet shoving range has to be made up of stuff like QJs (as opposed to QQ+,AK) for calling with AK to be correct?

That's for tomorrow

[zook]

Isn't it 134 to call for a 263 pot? making it a little under 2:1.

We would be getting Button's stack ($194) + what we already put in ($60) + SB's call ($21) + BB ($2). That's $277.

[meeloche]

i call preflop 100% of the time because of SB's money. It's a fold/4bet for sure if he's not in the hand but I don't think it's that close to a fold with him in. I also hate 4bet bluffing after someone cold calls a 3bet. That's generally terrible poker.

Is this because he's going to expect you to think he's light in this spot so he should expect your 4 bet to be light as well?

[nutsinho]

i call preflop 100% of the time because of SB's money. It's a fold/4bet for sure if he's not in the hand but I don't think it's that close to a fold with him in. I also hate 4bet bluffing after someone cold calls a 3bet. That's generally terrible poker.

Is this because he's going to expect you to think he's light in this spot so he should expect your 4 bet to be light as well?

It's because SB almost always has some pretty decent pair they don't want to fold and if you make a big 4bet and the 3bettor folds theyre just going to put u on AK and go with it. And they just show up with QQ+ a ton as well.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I think this is well played.

[Alexos]

I think this is well played.

[minSim]

A good study question is how much of your 4bet shoving range has to be made up of stuff like QJs (as opposed to QQ+,AK) for calling with AK to be correct?

Assuming SB folds, effective stacks are 194.
Hero shoves, 173 (194-21) for villain to call for a 238 (194+21+21+2) pot. That 1.376:1 / 42,1% equity needed.

AK vs QQ+,AK is 1.53:1 / 39,6% (-EV)
AK vs QQ+,AK,QJs is 1,32:1 / 43,1% (+EV)

So if hero is always QQ+, AK and QJs always, and nothing else ever it's a profitable call with AK (that being the range of AKs, AKo).


There's a breaking point somewhere though if hero is not always shoving QJs, but is doing so with QQ+, AK.

QQ+, AK is 34 combinations.
QJs is 4 combinations, or 10,5% of the range QQ+,AK,QJs.

As pointed out above, equity needed is 42,1%.
0,421=(0,895*0,396)+(?*0,383)
? = 0,1738

So if 17,38% of hero's range consists of hands like QJs, it's neutral EV for villain to call with AK.

[kapilalink]

i call preflop 100% of the time because of SB's money. It's a fold/4bet for sure if he's not in the hand but I don't think it's that close to a fold with him in. I also hate 4bet bluffing after someone cold calls a 3bet. That's generally terrible poker.

Is this because he's going to expect you to think he's light in this spot so he should expect your 4 bet to be light as well?

It's because SB almost always has some pretty decent pair they don't want to fold and if you make a big 4bet and the 3bettor folds theyre just going to put u on AK and go with it. And they just show up with QQ+ a ton as well.

If this is the case then why are we even calling pre? It seems to to me like a scenario where we're going to have reverse implied pot odds a lot of the time.