Bluff situation

[dalecooper]

No hand history because I can't find it, but this is more a question about the general situation anyway. Talk to me about all of it, especially bet sizing.

50 NL, full table. Effective stacks are $50. Mostly unknown player is UTG, hero is UTG+1 with:
:Kh: :Qh:.
UTG raises to 1.50 and hero calls, everyone else folds.

Pot is now 3.75. Flop comes :Ac: :Th: .
UTG bets 2.00, hero ? (In the actual hand, I called.)

Pot is now 7.75. Turn comes :Ad:.
UTG checks, hero ? (In the actual hand I bet 4.00. Villain hesitated a moment and called. I figured he would - this was a setup for a larger river bet.)

Pot is now 15.75. River comes .
UTG checks, hero ? (In the actual hand I bet 11.00. Results forthcoming.)

[The Odds God]

I don't like it. He will never fold an ace and if he doesn't have an ace, he will convince himself that you don't have it because there are two on board.

[dalecooper]

I take it for granted that he's not folding an ace. If he check-raises the turn or leads the river I'm done with it. That's the other goal of the weakish turn bet - get me out cheap if he springs to life.

Your other point is more of a concern to me. Do you think it's better to bet this if the other ace doesn't come? Are there good bluff cards on this board other than clubs? My initial hope on the flop was to bluff on the flush, if it came, or hit my gutshot and get paid off. The ace pairing and him checking created a different situation than what I had in mind.

[EzDuzIt]

i think for the most part the only thing you fold out are draws that you were ahead of, obv cant say for sure since hes unknown though so thats just what i would assume.

betting the turn is ok i might make it more like $5. i kind of wouldnt mind checking the turn back and maybe calling blank rivers depending on bet sizing and timing, but id rather know more about him for that so i dont mind this. except i dont fire the river.

[DJJunkPauds]

Funnily enough I was going to post something similar. I bluff the top card pairing all the time, and it works... I think. My average unknown seems to think "zOMG, now he has top pair but double, better fold my ten". It's one of my only auto double barrels with air, because on the tables I play 90% of villains think this way. However, 10% don't, and I make sure I note that read. I've no idea what your average unknown is like, so I don't know how to comment.

[dalecooper]

That's really the question for me. I don't think I'd fire a second barrel in this situation against a thinking player, but I assume most unknowns at my stakes are not, and are just looking at those two scary aces. That may be an incorrect assumption, I dunno.

Results - he went into the tank and called with one second left on the clock (curses!). He had KK. Pity.

[Silly String]

"Only a donkey would make that call!"

Seriously though, I don't like it much either. A read would help, but if he knows you're TAG this is bad. You are likely not just calling AK here and <AJ you probably just fold to an UTG raise. What A are you repping? Would you play AQ this way? I raise flop or bet turn bigger to defend the available draws.

[DJJunkPauds]

"Only a donkey would make that call!"

Seriously though, I don't like it much either. A read would help, but if he knows you're TAG this is bad. You are likely not just calling AK here and <AJ you probably just fold to an UTG raise. What A are you repping? Would you play AQ this way? I raise flop or bet turn bigger to defend the available draws.

All of this relies on generic-villain thinking about hero's cards at all, and even knowing what TAG means. At micro that seems unlikely, but that is quite site specific. At stars I'd be less inclined to take hero's line, somewhere else is different.

[dalecooper]

I'm not TAgg for what it's worth - I definitely lean LAgg without going into full spew - but my guess is that this guy didn't have a good grip on my table image, and probably doesn't play with a tracker or HUD. To him I was probably just another player at those stakes, playing the way most of them do.

My logic was this:
- Flop call: his lead was weak, and (thinking on the second level here) a lot of unknowns at this level will call raises with ace-anything and then take a passive call-down line with them when they pair their ace. So if he doesn't like the ace (my guess based on his bet size, which feels like a block) then he won't like my call - and if I'm wrong I have four outs in my pocket.
- Turn bet: I was planning to 3/4 pot this. Since another ace came off I thought I'd rep strength and go smaller, then bring out a bigger bet on the river. (I like to take believable lines with my bluffs.)
- River bet: just the follow-through.

[DJJunkPauds]

Oops, this 50NL, for some reason I had it in my head as 25NL. I hear 50NL is a little less dopey.

[Fnord]

Given the size of your turn bet, you must follow-through. I would bet at least $12 on the river.

I really like this line because it tells a good story.

[dalecooper]

Given the size of your turn bet, you must follow-through. I would bet at least $12 on the river.

Agreed, I got greedy there. I am always trying to find the sweet spot for how small of a bluff I can get away with that will win the pot almost as much as a pot-sized bet, and I erred on the side of too small here. A nice $12 or $13 bet probably would have pushed him over to a fold. Well live and learn. At least I made him sweat for 20 seconds.