5/10: oesd and two overs vs unknown

[pocketfours]

Villain sits at 6 tables. No reads/stats yet.

What's our action? Is this a trap? Do we have FE or is that just what he wants us to think?

Seat 1: CUTOFF ($1,030.00 in chips)
Seat 2: BUTTON ($1,563.95 in chips)
Seat 4: SB ($1,102.00 in chips)
Seat 7: HERO [ JH,QD ] ($1,015.00 in chips)
Seat 8: UTG ($950.00 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
SB posts blind ($5), HERO posts blind ($10).

PRE-FLOP
UTG folds, CUTOFF bets $35, BUTTON folds, SB folds, HERO calls $25.

FLOP [board cards 10S,9S,5H ]
HERO checks, CUTOFF bets $55, HERO bets $150, CUTOFF bets $320, HERO...?

[zook]

On this kind of board I think it's more likely a trap.

[Renton]

i kinda hate preflop

i'm also not big on c/r flop, i'd lead or c/c

and i don't think u have any fold equity, so i'd call or fold depending on the odds. It looks like you almost have express odds to hit a straight, and u may be able to represent a flush and win the pot that way. Your overs a probably pretty tainted though.

[pocketfours]

i kinda hate preflop

QJo is a std defend BB for me (I would guess something like call 50%, raise 25%, fold 25%). I've got 40%-45% equity against reg CO open, way more than pot odds dictate (33%). QJo also plays fairly well postflop OOP. I also prefer to defend 0EV hands from the BB. I really only fold it vs very good aggro regs.

i'm also not big on c/r flop, i'd lead or c/c

I chose to c/r because I had decided to go with the hand. In hindsight b/c and c/c seem like better options, although I do think the FE of the c/r is enough to compensate being slightly behind when stacks go in.

and i don't think u have any fold equity, so i'd call or fold depending on the odds. It looks like you almost have express odds to hit a straight, and u may be able to represent a flush and win the pot that way. Your overs a probably pretty tainted though.

I think he has a flushdraw here too often to bluff shove a third spade on the turn (I hate giving good odds vs probable draw with a strong made hand).

Even the tiniest bit of FE makes this a good shove though, and the small 3-bet could sometimes be a cheap stab with air. So my preference is still a shove, but I agree that a c/r is probably not optimal in the first place.

[MrWildHaggis]

Plenty of FE. If the cutoff had a made hand, he would have reraised more to protect it. (not $170 into $600.) Likely a spade draw or bluff as heros cr must have looked confusing. He is not gonna try to trap with set or 2 pair because of the texture of the board. If he calls, he wont have you heavily dominated so i would shove

[pocketfours]

Plenty of FE. If the cutoff had a made hand, he would have reraised more to protect it. (not $170 into $600.) Likely a spade draw or bluff as heros cr must have looked confusing. He is not gonna try to trap with set or 2 pair because of the texture of the board. If he calls, he wont have you heavily dominated so i would shove

Notice that these Ongame HH's can be confusing. Villain raised to $375 on the flop. Villain is never folding a flushdraw to a shove so the FE question is how often does he bluff after I c/r a drawy flop. The answer is probably: not very often.

[sauce123]

p4s- once u cr i would just stick it in over the 3bet and expect to be behind with little to no FE, but the fact that there is already so much money in the pot and we have 2 overs makes this a stack off

calling would be ok if u knew he did this with exactly sets/KK+ but we dont

[Fnord]

With a good draw, I hate c/ring the flop unless it clearly commits us to our hand. I'd rather run a check/call line or bet/shove this because weak hands aren't putting in a 3rd bet very often on the flop.

QJo is a std defend BB for me (I would guess something like call 50%, raise 25%, fold 25%). I've got 40%-45% equity against reg CO open, way more than pot odds dictate (33%). QJo also plays fairly well postflop OOP. I also prefer to defend 0EV hands from the BB. I really only fold it vs very good aggro regs.

I think you're under-valuing the importance of position and information on your opponent.

Hot/Cold equity is also kinda flawed here. How do we figure to get it in good? How well are we going to do picking up orphan pots? What kind of equity are we going to have on the flop?

[Renton]

yeah i highly doubt you'll realize the full extent of QJo's pot equity oop. Its a fine defend vs a bad/loose player, but vs anyone thinking i can't imagine you coming out ahead.

[sauce123]

i rly dont think its that bad of a defend tho i dont make it

[pocketfours]

With a good draw, I hate c/ring the flop unless it clearly commits us to our hand. I'd rather run a check/call line or bet/shove this because weak hands aren't putting in a 3rd bet very often on the flop.

This is what Renton said, and I agree 100%.

[pocketfours]

I think you're under-valuing the importance of position and information on your opponent.

Hot/Cold equity is also kinda flawed here. How do we figure to get it in good? How well are we going to do picking up orphan pots? What kind of equity are we going to have on the flop?

yeah i highly doubt you'll realize the full extent of QJo's pot equity oop. Its a fine defend vs a bad/loose player, but vs anyone thinking i can't imagine you coming out ahead.

i rly dont think its that bad of a defend tho i dont make it

Interesting. Would be nice to hear your 'Folded SB/BB To Steal' numbers? Mine are:

BB: 78%
SB: 85%

[sauce123]

mine r a bit lower but this is partially because i play as much 3-4 handed as possible

[Fnord]

BB: 78%
SB: 85%

Looking at my stats from when I played a lot of 200NL 6 max.

80%/64%

QJo and KJo were two of my bigger losers.

That said, I play fewer tables and am really anal about having position on retarded players. So there are a lot of defenses here against really stupid ranges and min-raises.