100NL - Strong draw on the turn

[Keilah]

This is one of those hands where I'm considering shoving the turn but calling's fine too. Villain was 20/10/2.

More I look at it the more I lke my play, the decision seems easy in fact. Villain could have a non-set PP that he'd be willing to fold, but there aren't a lot of draws other than mine.

Anyone play it differently?


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

BB ($40.05)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($19)
Hero ($130)
MP2 ($100.35)
MP3 ($100)
CO ($40.55)
Button ($16.50)
SB ($91.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q, J.
2 folds, Hero raises to $4, 4 folds, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold.

Flop: ($9) 4, 9, T (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, SB raises to $15, Hero calls $9.

Turn: ($39) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $27, Hero ?

[BankItDrew]

Don't show results - end pot after SB bet turn.

I say shove turn while trying to ignore results.

Can someone please do the math on how often villain needs to fold to make a shove profitable? Assume 15 outs.

[Keilah]

Edited.

[Keilah]

K dude, I did the math and a shove looks pretty bad.

To be oEV he needs to fold 35% of the time (reasonable).

To be as +EV as calling, even if he NEVER pays off when I hit, he needs to fold 65% of the time (not happening).

And assuming I have SOME implied odds, calling pwns shoving.

[freechus9]

Make a hand first and then get it in.