200NL: AQs flops NFD + over

[d0zer]

Hero had stacked villain less than a rotation ago with KK > QQ on a Jhigh board. V called my 3-bet, then pushed my flop lead. Then he re-bought short so he might be on his last legs & tilting...

Villain was 20/4 over only 2 rotations.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG+1 ($214.50)
MP1 ($40)
MP2 ($239.45)
Hero ($434.20)
CO ($313.60)
Button ($139.85)
SB ($221.30)
BB ($92.85)
UTG ($208.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, A.
2 folds, Hero raises to $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8, 2 folds.

Flop: ($19) 6, K, 7 (4 players)
Hero bets $12, Button raises to $42, Hero ... ?

Hard to know if he's tilting & playing back at me, which affect the likelihood that my over is any good. Even if it is, I don't really have odds to shove here without some serious FE & chasing OOP sucks so...easy fold?

[Deanglow]

I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity

[pokerfan]

i fold fast here

[Fnord]

i fold fast here

No fucking way.

All-in. Every time.

[BankItDrew]

All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.

[Keilah]

You have a car?

[d0zer]

All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.

You have a car?

My insurance costs me a little less than villain's stack per month.

So I push, villain flips AKo, I runner-runner trip queens and I have a little left over (after insurance) for beer monies

I think I single-handedly took villain's roll in 20 hands

[pokerfan]

you just got lucky,man. Whenever somebody 3x raise your cb, you know they are serious most of the time in FR. Basically, you just play your nuts flush draw vs his flop raising range. I just cant believe that so many ppl like to gamble in this situation, Is everybody excited and go felt mode instantly whenever they have nuts flush draw vs big raise?

All in. Pay for monthly car insurance.

You have a car?

My insurance costs me a little less than villain's stack per month.

So I push, villain flips AKo, I runner-runner trip queens and I have a little left over (after insurance) for beer monies

I think I single-handedly took villain's roll in 20 hands

[badgers]

lol pokerfan why can't villain have JTs? You make it sound like we're absolutely crushed all of the time.

[JinxT4]

I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity

(Trying not to be biased b/c of results): Even though I don't play 1/2, this doesn't make sense to me. If he's raising here with a K/set, I don't think he's folding, & I can't see many other hands that he's raising here (maybe a worse flush draw?). In addition to this, I think villain is less likely to be bluffing since he just got stacked & is trying to get back what he lost.

Just trying to understand the excitement over getting AI here/see it from BankItDrew & Deanglow's point of view.

[d0zer]

you just got lucky,man.

No way. I saw into the soul of the e-deck and knew that two queens were a'comin'

Vs a total unknown I'd agree with you that v's flop line generally screams enough strength that I've got no FE, but there's history here...

[pokerfan]

its not justified felting nuts flush draw here cuz his stack is still 70BB. I'd felt this with at least 12 clear outs.

lol pokerfan why can't villain have JTs? You make it sound like we're absolutely crushed all of the time.

[pokerfan]

in the heat of the moment, you convinced yourself that " fuck my life, i've got to gamble this hand, why not?" , haha, nice hand :P

you just got lucky,man.

No way. I saw into the soul of the e-deck and knew that two queens were a'comin'

Vs a total unknown I'd agree with you that v's flop line generally screams enough strength that I've got no FE, but there's history here...

[Fnord]

News Flash: Poker is gambling

I'm only folding if I'm certain my opponent has a set.

Folding without that very specific read is sooooo bad.

[Deanglow]

I would shove with your reads. I think you have good fold equity

(Trying not to be biased b/c of results): Even though I don't play 1/2, this doesn't make sense to me. If he's raising here with a K/set, I don't think he's folding, & I can't see many other hands that he's raising here (maybe a worse flush draw?). In addition to this, I think villain is less likely to be bluffing since he just got stacked & is trying to get back what he lost.

Just trying to understand the excitement over getting AI here/see it from BankItDrew & Deanglow's point of view.

He is 20/4 over an insignificant sample so that doesn't matter. What does matter is that he has a donk stack and he lost a bunch of money a few hands ago (to this hero it doesn't matter that much). I have a read that he is terrible and probably wants to gamble. Or he is making a tilt move. I'll go in with probably 12 outs and fold equity.

[wufwugy]

omg what waht?

hes short. who cares about fold equity when youd still felt if he showed KQ

[Fnord]

I have a read that he is terrible and probably wants to gamble. Or he is making a tilt move. I'll go in with probably 12 outs and fold equity.

Struggling players tend to play a wider range and are more likely to take a stab at pots in an effort to win some back. If he's turning cash into a personal tournament, then at some point he'll pick a hand and felt it.

[Seabass]

If you feel he has a wide range/tilting/making a move you shove. You might have FE, it might be a worse draw, it might be TP. It's hard to tell when people are making there last stand, even harder with history.

In the end, I don't see myself folding.