200NL: 99 UTG OOP and some BvB fun

[d0zer]

Hand 1:

Villain appeared to be on the tighter end of tight/aggressive 18/14 ish?

Called 10% of PFRs. ATS of 40%

On the flop I figure mid pocket pairs make up a fair bit of his range, his turn call has me worried though, and I no longer feel like I'm ahead. Turn my hand into a bluff? c/f c/c?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($200.95)
BB ($200)
Hero ($306.10)
MP ($291.80)
Button ($210.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 9, 9.
Hero raises to $8, MP calls $8, 3 folds.

Flop: ($19) 2, 3, Q (2 players)
Hero bets $12, MP calls $12.

Turn: ($43) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $28, MP calls $28.

River: ($99) Q (2 players)
Hero ... ?


Hand 2:

Villain looked like a positionally aware tagg over a tiny sample.

Anyone like this river raise? He ever calling this with a jack (or worse?) to make this worthwhile?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

SB ($181.80)
Hero ($285)
UTG ($194.85)
MP ($191)
Button ($302.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J, 9.
3 folds, SB completes, Hero raises to $8, SB calls $6.

Flop: ($18) 9, 2, 5 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $10, SB calls $10.

Turn: ($38) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $28, SB calls $28.

River: ($94) 2 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero raises to $72

[Deanglow]

I'm thinking that hand 1 is a c/f ; betting is not horrible.

I do like the river raise in 2 he calls with worse

[nutsinho]

1) his turn call has u worried? why the hell did u bet then? river is probably another value b/f but c/f isnt terrible.

2) when you hold the nuts on the river, just calling is a sin

[d0zer]

1) his turn call has u worried? why the hell did u bet then?

Point taken. I guess I thought it was thin value to begin with, & I'm not terribly comfortable in those spots. Is it a bet you make on this turn & why? Value? Metagame?

I think I almost didn't wanna give him a chance to take a stab on the turn if I checked cause I would be under-repping my hand as missed broadways that I was c-betting.

I dunno man, I'm a donk -- we don't have good reasons for things, we just DO.

[Marshall28]

the problem w/ the 99 hand is that the board reads Q-2-3 5. Because there was a flush draw on the flop I would be more likely to bet the turn than otherwise, but the thing is, on Q-2-3 what can he really call you with on the flop and the turn? If he thinks you are super aggro I guess he could call w/ a 44-88 type hand, or 5x. I would much prefer this if the board was a little more draw heavy and I knew my opponent to call too much w/ draws and never play them fast. And/or if he thought I was just out of my mind I would definitely fire here and not be extremely concerned about the Q. It's a feel type thing, either way, when the Q pairs the river your hand improves, as does his, plus it's less likely he has a Q. Though it is more likely for him to think you have a Q if you bet, which means you likely won't get paid off by worse unless again, he thinks you are totally insane, then he will be more justified in calling you down very light assuming you are bluffing. I'm not betting this river unless one of those dynamics I just described existed, if not, c/f.

[nutsinho]

marshall- i have seen in a number of your posts that you rarely put your opponents on pocket pairs. in this preflop scenario, more than half of the hands the opponent calls with are pocket pairs.

[Fnord]

Yeah, when an 18/14 cold calls, their range is pretty much weaker suited broadways, pairs and perhaps a suited connector.

However, if he's more like 20/14 to 24/14 (more like my stats), then we need to consider that he'll cold-call hands like AQo and KQo.

Also, look at their FS. The more they defend, the more likely he has a pair here.

Hmmm.... maybe I should just cut to the chase and put cold call % on my HuD....

Anyway, this hand illustrates why I like cold-calling weak unimaginative TAggs when I have a pretty good hand. It really puts them into diffcult spots having to guess my hand.

[d0zer]

I thought 22-JJ made up like 75% of this villain's range. I don't think he's likely to be calling here with many more broadways than KQ, AQ.

A set would probably raise here at some point given a fairly dangerous board, leaving us with 44, 66-JJ, AQ, KQ?

There's value on the turn from the lower end of that range, though if we consider that there's more combos of broadways I'm actually behind more hand combinations of that range on the turn. I can't see getting 3 streets of value from the lower end of that range, but I have been fairly aggressive on this table, so he just might, but he'd also call me with the large chunk of it that beats me as well. Plus there is always some chance he's slowplaying a set on a dangerous board.

I opted for c/f & it went c/c & he flipped jacks.

But now I'm wondering what the point of betting the turn is if I just decided there's no value in a river bet given his range doesn't really change on the two streets.

[Fnord]

I think you played it just fine. c/f turn will fold the best hand too often.

Only other line I would consider is checking the flop.

[Silly String]

1) his turn call has u worried? why the hell did u bet then?

Point taken. I guess I thought it was thin value to begin with, & I'm not terribly comfortable in those spots. Is it a bet you make on this turn & why? Value? Metagame?

I think I almost didn't wanna give him a chance to take a stab on the turn if I checked cause I would be under-repping my hand as missed broadways that I was c-betting.

I dunno man, I'm a donk -- we don't have good reasons for things, we just DO.

I agree 100% with Dozer. I would like Nutsinho to elaborate on this please. I found myself unsure as to why I bet this spot often too. I came to the same conclusion that I would rather b/f than c/c here for a number of reasons vs an 18/14 TAG. The main reason is I don't want to get floated. So I'm betting to defend my hand.

*EDIT* I didn't see the last two posts so I apologize for any redundancy.

[Marshall28]

marshall- i have seen in a number of your posts that you rarely put your opponents on pocket pairs. in this preflop scenario, more than half of the hands the opponent calls with are pocket pairs.

the only types of hands i even considered besides a Q were 44-JJ ????

regardless, whatever i put the opponent on, my analysis is the same, hes not paying u off on this river often at all, and hes folding the turn VERY often w/ that particular range.

[freechus9]

I think in the 99 hand we have to bet this river a good amount of the time. If villain's range is mostly PPs and weak Q type hands, then we can make him fold (assuming he can) with a big river bet. I think I almost like a bigger turn bet so we can get a bigger river bet in. Just curiously, what's your image? I think that's what separates a c/f and a b/f.