100NL, thin value bet on the river or check/induce bluff?

[pokerfan]

villain is a 14/10/2.3 regular over 1000 hands. What would you guys do on this river? How to plan this hand OOP from flop on ?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

Hero ($112.35)
UTG+1 ($132.70)
MP1 ($96.50)
MP2 ($98.50)
CO ($100)
Button ($95)
SB ($100.50)
BB ($98.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, J. CO posts a blind of $1.
Hero raises to $5, 6 folds, Button called $5

Flop: ($12.5) 2, 8, K (2 players)
Hero bets $8.5, Button calls $8.50.

Turn: ($24) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks.

River: ($24) 2 (2 players)
Hero ?

[aka_red]

i lean c/f but c/c is fine too but i think you get shown a weak king alot.

[Deanglow]

I'm tempted to b/f for value but a c/f can't be too bad.

[badgers]

i think this is really close between betting small, c/c and c/f. I lean towards c/c cos the fd missed and i don't expect him to vbet QQ a lot.

[Miffed22001]

bet, he'll call you with worse but have better a lot too.
88-qq arent folding here IMO and Kx isnt

[Fnord]

What's his range?

66, 99, TT, JJ
Kx s00ted
maybe a set he played funny
maybe a flush draw he played really passive
is he too nitty to value bet a King?

I'm check/calling this every time at 6 max, but people do stupid shit against me all the time.

[euphoricism]

I disagree with miffed. Check/call, he'll bet with worse but call with better.

[pokerfan]

Hero checked, Button bet $14, hero?
how thin is it for hero to call with JJ and show immediate profit vs this regular nit?

[Fnord]

I snap call and if I win the pot, he's my bitch for the next hour.

[Deanglow]

I snap call and if I win the pot, he's my bitch for the next hour.

You have unhealthy obsession with making people your 'bitch'

Yeah I guess c/c is fine but I would still bet for value against a lot of players.

[Monty3038]

I get caught in this a bit, but I'm new and play micros... the check on the turn leads me to think he missed or is worried about your King... and I bet him on the river... and normally he shows down Kx... I think Fnord has it right about his range... I just have seen this bite me a lot lately.

[euphoricism]

renton can chime in here as he'll be able to explain it better... But basically when he bets this river, you're better off than when he checks because he would check his weak Kings (and therefore most of his 'thin value' hands) behind very often. Therefore the 'thinness' is removed from his range which leaves the nut-ness and the air-ness. Since the nut-ness would probably bet the turn, it leads to a higher likelyhood of airness.

I hope that made sense... ness..

[badgers]

renton can chime in here as he'll be able to explain it better... But basically when he bets this river, you're better off than when he checks because he would check his weak Kings (and therefore most of his 'thin value' hands) behind very often. Therefore the 'thinness' is removed from his range which leaves the nut-ness and the air-ness. Since the nut-ness would probably bet the turn, it leads to a higher likelyhood of airness.

I hope that made sense... ness..

v well put this is the exact reason why I've started noting which regs tend to vbet thin as a matter of top priority. It makes their range so much easier to figure out in this situation

[Renton]

i think he always bets a king, problem is he doesn't have many, basically just KQs and AK.

that said a bet is definitely bad as nothing worse ever calls. So its a tough choice between c/c and c/f.

I would c/f.

[Renton]

depends a ton on his timing and bet size though

[euphoricism]

basically just KQs and AK.

wouldn't this make it lean toward a call?

[Renton]

i just don't feel like his bluff frequency is super high when we raise 5x utg and bet a k high flop

[badgers]

thinking about it most of the hands he calls with preflop have SD value here as well making a bluff even less likely. If you can see this villain playing AK like this I guess a fold isn't bad

[daven]

i've seen this type of bet sizing by bad villains a lot as some sort of value bet. I know this because i pay them off. I pay off here as well, expecting to be behind about 70% of the time.

[pokerfan]

wow, i just came back late tonight from my local casino and saw lots of discussions in this thread :P
i called and he showed me QQ. So he really vbet thin very well against my range. Nice job, well done.

[aka_red]

so me and renton are the only kids that lean c/f that means we are way cooler than you among other tihngs. ie having bigger e-peens

[Fnord]

Flatting QQ there standard?

[Renton]

yes definitely

[nutsinho]

i would gaybet the river for 8$. The other option is c/f. a 14/10 is only calling preflop with pairs/AK vs a 5x utg raise. BTW, im not a full ring expert but i would say that 5xing utg is between crappy and terrible in today's 100nl+ games.

[Keilah]

Hey wtf I made a post and it didnt show up.

Basically I think you're ahead of about 40-45% of his range that made it to the river, the part you beat almost never bets but almost always calls a small bet, so make a small bet.