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10NL 3bet pot, flop c/r bluff gone bad

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  1. #1

    Default 10NL 3bet pot, flop c/r bluff gone bad

    Villain was 75/33/3.3, I was playing 23/15/1.5 TP/pTAG (pseudo TAG, I was check calling villains cbets a lot with middle/top pair) over about 80 hands. No significant history. He almost always bets flop when checked to if he's got the lead. Up until this point I hadn't gotten out of line, and had not raised any flop bets previous to this (e.g. he hasn't seen me check-raise bluff at all).

    I figure I have two options here bet/fold or check-raise. I decided against a villain playing this LAGy a checkraise on a board this dry folds out a ton of his range, so that's what I did. Now, he min 3-bets us, and we're getting like 4.86:1 to call.

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

    Button ($33.70)
    SB ($10)
    BB ($10.20)
    Hero ($18.65)
    MP ($9.25)

    Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q.
    Hero raises to $0.5, 1 fold, Button raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.50.

    Flop: ($4.15) 7, 3, 8 (2 players)
    Hero checks, Button bets $2, Hero raises to $6.5, Button raises to $11, Hero raises to $16.65, Button calls $5.65.

    Turn: ($37.45) A (2 players)

    River: ($37.45) T (2 players)

    Final Pot: $37.45

    Now my questions.

    1. Was the ship good given the circumstances?
    2. Was bet/fold a better line on the flop?
    3. Can I ever fold AQo here after he min-3bets (at this stake)?
    4. At microstakes, are occasional moves like this beneficial for getting called down light in 3bet pots; or does it tend towards spew, as non-thinking opponents are no more likely to call you after having seen something like this?
  2. #2
    Just a little update guys, I would never have taken this line in this pot if I didnt' think he had just one pair like 85% of the time or more.
  3. #3
    mixchange's Avatar
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    AQ doesn't play well OOP in 3bet pots. I'd prefer 4bet/get it in if he's 3betting wildly than to flat and whiff most flops IF you were 100BB... but you're almost 200BB deep so just dump the AQ pre OOP

    1. The ship was bad, at worst he is shipping AK here and we're way behind.
    2. No, we now have committed 50BB with ace high
    3. That's not a min 3bet, he 4x'd your raise which is considered a bit large
    4. I have no idea about microstakes images

    On your update, what do you think he's folding here? AA-JJ? Probably not. Maybe a pair of nines or tens...
  4. #4
    Quote Originally Posted by mixchange
    AQ doesn't play well OOP in 3bet pots. I'd prefer 4bet/get it in if he's 3betting wildly than to flat and whiff most flops IF you were 100BB... but you're almost 200BB deep so just dump the AQ pre OOP

    1. The ship was bad, at worst he is shipping AK here and we're way behind.
    2. No, we now have committed 50BB with ace high
    3. That's not a min 3bet, he 4x'd your raise which is considered a bit large
    4. I have no idea about microstakes images

    On your update, what do you think he's folding here? AA-JJ? Probably not. Maybe a pair of nines or tens...
    Re 3: I meant his min 3-bet on the flop., 2 -> 6.5 -> 11, isn't 4.50 a clickback?

    I definitely don't expect him to fold JJ-AA, I do think he shows up with 33 through TT quite a bit more often than he shows up with QQ+ (which are the only one pair hands we fear getting almost 5:1 with over 1/2 the effective stacks in the pot).

    Like I said, my initial reasoning was that on a board that dry the only hands I'm taking this line with are T9s 78, 33, 77+, AK, and very rarely AQ.

    But all in all, do you think my range is sufficiently narrow to fold out lots of MPPs that we don't want continuing?

    (I won't reveal what Opp had yet, but it definitely adds a monkey wrench to the analysis)
  5. #5
    So it turns into a reverse implied odds situation, I'm either going to win a small pot, or lose a huge one, and since we're like 180bb deep it's better to reduce variance than get into bad post flop spots.
  6. #6
    mixchange's Avatar
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    thing is "clicking it back" isn't some sort of move people make at microstakes ala you hear about ppl doing at higher stakes. A 3bet click back at microstakes is probably 90%+ a strong hand that wants to get the money in but is just retarded about bet sizing.

    oh, and he isn't thinking about your range as a 73/33 at 10NL, so you can't really rep anything. if he has an overpair he isn't folding.

    I think you will win a lot more money if you play more straightforward at 10NL in 3bet pots. OOP we want quality hands to call a 3bet, IP we can be looser.
  7. #7
    I totally agree. I ended up winning the pot, he had 66.
    This is why I was a little taken aback, and curious if my play was correct if he's willing to call that wide. Even if jamming isn't +EV, after the 3bet it certainly has to be less -EV than folding. That's why I was curious to get feedback, and yet you were the only one that replied

    I thought the situation (given Opp's stats) was a bit more interesting than it looked on the surface.
  8. #8
    mixchange's Avatar
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    If they are constantly willing to stack off wide which is common for fish with those kind of stats just pick a good hand and get the money in, don't overthink cuz he isn't at all

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