[10NL] trips against shorty loose passive

[pilipolio]

Villain is 30/2/0.5 on a small sample.

Any reason to fold or avoid stacking off?

$0.05/$0.1 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG RGRDPS ($4.39)
UTG+1 chessterra ($4.35)
MP1 CrownBet ($9.80)
MP2 JasonSchriv ($24.61)
CO mighty_joe2 ($2.00)
BTN viktor80 ($1.45)
SB lord_byron2 ($10.00)
BB Hero ($10.15)

Pre-flop: ($0.15, 8 players) Hero is BB
RGRDPS calls $0.10, 6 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($0.25, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.25, RGRDPS calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.75, 2 players)
Hero bets $0.70, RGRDPS raises to $1.50, Hero ?

[Deanglow]

too bad he has K10 but you're allin anyway

[spoonitnow]

Yeah you've gotta get it in with his starting stack size.

[BankItDrew]

Yeah you've gotta get it in with his starting stack size.

Pretty much. KT looks about right too.

To answer your question: No. There is no way to get away from this hand. Shorty is a shorty and we flopped a monster.

[killerkebab]

I am a bit of a beginner so don't flame me too hard for this question but...

if you guys 'know' he has KT, how do you justify a call? The odds that he's betting with a lot less than KT?

[pilipolio]

if you guys 'know' he has KT, how do you justify a call? The odds that he's betting with a lot less than KT?

That plus the equity of rivering a FH.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 704  games     0.005 secs   140,800  games/sec

Board: Qd Qs Jc Ad
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	22.585%  	22.59% 	00.00% 	           159 	        0.00   { Qh8h }
Hand 1: 	77.415%  	77.41% 	00.00% 	           545 	        0.00   { KTs, KTo }

I guess trying to fold trips in this kind of spot will loses more money than it wins long term. A posteriori we can decide it is slighty +EV to fold, but not in the heat of the battle.

There are probably much more important leaks in my game than trying to find a fold here.

[Keilah]

ummm no we can't decide it's +EV to fold. He doesn't ALWAYS have KT.

[Stacks]

There is really just too few hands that beat you to justify a fold here imo. KT (16 combos), AA (3 combos), JJ (3 combos), Qx (split pot unless he has QJ, KQ, AQ). And villian won't so up often with AA/JJ often, as limping preflop isn't standard with those hands, so we can say that only shows up a small % of the time. The chances of him having Qx is slim, obviously since only one Q is left. And against KT you have 10 outs to a fullhouse, which is as pilipolio stated 22% equity.

So you are in good shape against his range. Also given that the average 10nl player is playing any ace the same way, and he might even come alive here with two diamonds as well. But yeah, his line is poor whatever he has.

Added to the fact that so little beats you, he started with only 50bb, so folding wouldn't be very good here.