tptk on low paired board 50nl

[daven]

villains know I c-bet, have recently seen that I'm full of shit, and aren't gonna be folding their pairs here (both players pre-flop range 22-99, plus an SC for "polarisation" - FU cardrunners)

Turn I'll see what happens, Q hit my range reasonably hard - I'd often re-raise AK here but they wouldn't expect that... River is fine, villain doesn't lead turn with 33. So, I've got good showdown value so calling is fine. However, I think the shove looks bluffy AcKc enough that I might get a call from a beaten midpair. Thoughts? too thin?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($58.70)
MP3 ($51.95)
CO ($30.10)
Button ($24.30)
SB ($100)
BB ($91.70)
UTG ($36.45)
UTG+1 ($49)
Hero (MP1) ($50)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, Q
UTG calls $0.50, UTG+1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.75, 6 folds, UTG calls $2.25, UTG+1 calls $2.25

Flop: ($9) 2, 2, 4 (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($9) Q (3 players)
UTG checks, UTG+1 bets $5, Hero calls $5, 1 fold

River: ($19) 3 (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $12, call or shove?

UTG+1 seems to think he has the best hand because he's vbetting
he has 31.25 bucks left

if he can lead 55 into you on the turn, he can lead 33
but I'd say 22-44 is maybe 20% of the time here
I base this number on the fact that there are two people to the flop, by the flop you have a 12% that someone out of those people has quads or a full house
maybe the river did accidentally improve him ~3% of the time
and 5% for random stupid crap that shouldn't be part of their range, but is

if you call, you win 31 dollars .80 of the time, lose 12 dollars .20 of the time
so your EV here is $22.4

if you shove, say you win 31 dollars 40% of the time, win $62.25 40% of the time, lose $62.25 .20 of the time

the EV is 12.4 + 24.9 - 12.45 = 24.85
so if they call a shove with a pp half of the time, it's definitely profitable since I went so conservative on calculating their possible holdings
it's probably still profitable if he calls 1/3 of the time, I'm just overestimating random shit in his range

but if it's like 10% of the time they call this, it's probably not profitable

[bigspenda73]

you meant call or fold right, not call or shove?

The shove would be thin on it's own, consider that people at 50nl cannot value bet thin and it makes it even worse.

[Miffed22001]

muck

[daven]

you meant call or fold right, not call or shove?

The shove would be thin on it's own, consider that people at 50nl cannot value bet thin and it makes it even worse.

yeah, but he's value betting against ak, not aq! and i'm not sure people realise what impact ft's cardrunners promotion is having on the gameplay there.

Anyway, I called after hovering over the max button a couple of seconds. Villain showed 99. Results orientated - thanks for the sanity check - shoving would have been stupid cos 99 is never calling...

[badgers]

muck

what?

[Miffed22001]

muck

what?

missed there was no flop action.