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 ensign_lee's NFL picks 9/7 (YTD: 0-0-0, +0 units)
SageStats ensign_lee
Hey guys,
Well since X-man axed my forum, I figure this is a good a place as any to share my NFL bets with y'all. (don't worry. No hard feelings, Xianti) Woot! Go Texans!
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Pittsburgh -6.5 (+105)
2 units at BetTrojan (scalped with matchbook to create line from -105)
Being a Texans fan myself, it's hard for me to make this bet, but the strengths of Pittsburgh play right into our weaknesses here in Houston.
We're trying to implement a pure zone blocking scheme, which has historically been fouled up by good 3-4 defenses. So even if we were executing to perfection, our running game might not do as well as we'd hope. Couple that with our seeming utter inability to convert red zone opportunities into TDs (stemming back to last year on an offense that returns a fair amount of starters) instead of FGs, and I don't see our offense consistently scoring enough to keep up with Pittsburgh.
The Pitt offense vs. Houston defense is the real story though. Jacques Reeves was absolutely lit up in the Dallas Cowboys preseason game, getting toasted on just about every play. What does this say? Any team with a viable passing attack and a good #2 wideout to match against Reeves will be able to convert 2nd and longs, 3rd and longs without that much difficulty. Does Pittsburgh fall into that criteria? Yes - With Ben at the helm and good wide receivers all around, I don't see how the our defensive backs will be able to cover everyone at once. Couple that with the disappearance of the entire Houston d-line with the exception of Mario (and he keeps getting double teamed, like always), and it is a very real possibility that Pittsburgh will be able to score seemingly at will.
Thus, Pittsburgh -6.5.
And if you want to recreate my scalp, all you have to do is take PIT -6.5 (-105) at BetTrojan, and then go and take HOU +6.5 at matchbook. I got my +6.5 at +110, and you can probably go out and try to match that, or get +109 at the very least. I have offsetting positions of 8 units at each out.
HOU/PIT OVER 42.5 (-105)
1 unit at BetTrojan
HOU/PIT OVER 43.5 (-105)
1 unit at Matchbook
I took the over 43.5 earlier in the week, before the line dropped. Then I took the 42.5 yesterday at Trojan when I saw it. Same reasoning as above for the PIT offense vs. HOU defense. In fact, they may be able to come close to scoring this over themselves, to be perfectly honest...which sucks for me as a Texans fan, but anyway...
Honestly, the play revolves around the reasoning of the PIT offense vs. the HOU defense. You can trust the Texans (who btw had a top 5 passing offense last year) to put up points - I'm just afraid that it won't be enough points.
Carolina Panthers M/L @ San Diego Chargers (+387.1)
1 unit at Matchbook
Everyone is remembering the Panthers of last year *after* Delhomme went down. Who was at the helm then? David Carr - With largely the same supporting cast as Carr (including the *exact same* offensive line), Matt Schaub took the Texans from the bottom of the league in passing to top 5. What does that say about Carr? He brings teams down with him.
With Delhomme at QB, this is a completely different team. They have the personnel to hang with the Chargers, especially since Norv Turner's team I think will start out of the gate slow, like they did last year. They probably won't win this game, but I believe that they're talented enough to do so at least once in every 3 to 4 tries, which is all that is required to make this play +EV.
Baltimore Ravens M/L (+119.56)
1 unit at Matchbook
The Bengals are favored in this matchup. Why? Their team chemistry is disintegrating; their star WR is hurt for this matchup; and the Baltimore Ravens are divisional foes.
I'll take a divisional underdog at home vs. a team lacking chemistry any day.
Parlay (+281)
HOU/PIT OVER 42.5
PIT -6.5
3 1/3 units at BetTrojan
I think that these two plays are correlated enough to warrant parlaying them together. Plus, I believe that each leg seperately will stand. Couple that with getting -105 on each leg for the parlay and here we are. This should be an indicator of just how strongly I believe that the Steelers offense will decimate the Texans defense.
Buffalo -1.5 (-110)
1 unit at theGreek
Two main reasons for this pick. 1) I'm tailing another handicapper that I respect. 2) the angle that teams from the West Coast traveling to the East coast to play an early game tend to fare poorly - less than 40% ATS for the past few years (I think. Didn't relookup the stats this morning, so take that for what it's worth)
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Originally Posted by Lukie
<---what I need currently. Blech.
