Turn bet 200NL

[pgil]

Villain is aggressive, we have been tangling a fair bit tonight on a few tables. I have been successfully 3betting his loose LP opens for some time from the blinds. 3bettor is also fairly aggressive, and I suspect squeezing.

On the flop, opp is betting his entire range here after the 3bettor checks, but I see little value in raising, especially with the BB still in.

Question is, is it a huge mistake to not bet the turn here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($118.95)
UTG+1 ($117)
MP1 ($200)
MP2 ($200)
MP3 ($235.30)
Hero (CO) ($403.60)
Button ($230.50)
SB ($210.10)
BB ($396.40)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
3 folds, MP2 raises to $6, 1 fold, Hero calls $6, 2 folds, BB raises to $20, MP2 calls $14, Hero calls $14

Flop: ($61) 5, J, 5 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets $38, Hero calls $38, 1 fold

Turn: ($137) 9 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero...

[pokerfan]

when there's only one bet left, i'm definitely not a big fan of pot control here with TPTK in 3 bet pot. Certainly, i wouldnt bet too much on the turn and scare him away. By the way, i call with any pairs or sc but dump AJs preflop. Hmm, Aj is too easily dominated in these situations. However, when you call 3 bet preflop and hit TPTK, what else can you do really?

[jimmy44]

I definitevely do not bet here. What worst hands would call here? I want villain to bluff AK on the river. If villain pushes (note that he has only a pot size bet left!) I might fold.

[aka_red]

pf is loose.

[bigspenda73]

I think AK is a pretty silly read, his flop bet is like 77-TT that got pysched when the 3bettor checked the flop.

[jimmy44]

I think AK is a pretty silly read, his flop bet is like 77-TT that got pysched when the 3bettor checked the flop.

I agree, after I posted I indeed thought that this is seldomly in his range. But what I meant is that we need villain to bet a weaker hand or call a small bet (with a weaker hand) on the river. There is no point on betting the turn as he will fold often 77-TT here (unless he's really bad).

[ATOTHEC101]

I think AK is a pretty silly read, his flop bet is like 77-TT that got pysched when the 3bettor checked the flop.

This is preety much what i think his range is to, check back turn then bet river if checked to again.

[pgil]

pf is pretty loose as far as calling the 3 bet goes, and I would have probably just folded to the obvious squeeze if the original raiser hadn't called first.

I was more thinking of betting the turn to protect against the 6-10 outs that opp may now have. I don't think AK is too bad of a read here, and didn't at the time either, because as I said, he is betting his entire range on the flop once BB checks. opp can't pass up the chance to bet at weakness. Not that I blame him here because it is such an obvious spot for a squeeze.

At the time I was thinking that villain will bet all rivers where he is still behind if I check the turn, maybe barring 88-TT, though maybe not. Looking back the 9 does give him some more possible outs (QT/QK are def in his range at the moment) and feel like I got greedy by trying to induce in a big pot with a moderate hand where I am representing real strength.

for the results oriented (including me) river is a Q that gets checked down, and opp wins with KhQh.