Dalecooper theorem..?

[dalecooper]

Villain is standard TAgg without much history. Don't know how he got his stack in this session; in a previous session with him he played ABC poker well enough to beat these stakes, but not well enough to beat me. He's a little above average on aggression but not a spewmonkey.

The theorem (with little field testing so far) says that if a villain check/calls the flop + donk leads on the turn, without significant change in board texture, he's not that strong. He may have a little something he'd like to show down, or he may be blocking for a draw. In this case if the theorem holds, I should refuse to give him credit for better than a pair of queens. His range on the turn according to the theorem is Qx, JJ, TT, 99, 88, 7x, and flush draws.

How's this?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($80.30)
UTG ($49.50)
Hero (MP) ($51.25)
CO ($23.25)
Button ($16.85)
SB ($69.20)

Preflop: Hero is MP with :Kc: :Kh:
UTG calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.50, 2 folds, SB calls $2.25, 1 fold, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($8.50) :Qs: (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $6, SB calls $6, 1 fold

Turn: ($20.50) (2 players)
SB bets $12.50, Hero calls $12.50

River: ($45.50) (2 players)
SB bets $48.20 (All-In), Hero calls $30.25 (All-In)

Total pot: $106 | Rake: $3

[UG]

most of the time I think you're right against most opps, and this hand was played perfectly

[JL]

That line is so bluffy, and I never give it any respect when a bad player pulls it off. Unless of course villain is one of those types that always leads his strong hands and never check-raises.

I love to use villain's line against thinking opponents when I turn something good.

[Squeaky_Midget1]

HOLY SHIT...YOU'RE RIGHT
I must fail at executing though.



$0.1/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($18.85)
UTG+1 ($27.55)
MP ($8.75)
Hero ($21.10)
BTN ($24.30)
SB ($24.70)
BB ($15.00)

Pre-flop: ($0.35, 7 players) Hero is CO
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, UTG calls $1

Flop: ($2.85, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $2, UTG calls $2

Turn: ($6.85, 2 players)
UTG bets $3.50, Hero goes all-in $17.85, UTG goes all-in $12.10

River: ($40.30, 2 players)

Final Pot: $38.05
UTG shows:
Hero shows:

UTG wins $36.20 ( won +$17.35 )
Hero wins $2.25 ( lost -$18.85 )

[thizzSantaCruz]

squeaky that hand is horrible

[bjsaust]

Dammit, you owe me $30!!!

Just kidding, mostly I agree, but sometimes people take this line with the nuts. Dunno why. If you're gonna slowplay a set on the flop, why donk the turn if it didnt get scary/likely improve my hand?

Coz I figure you're bluffing I guess

[dalecooper]

squeaky that hand is horrible

Looks fine to me, but clearly villain was way too loose to care about calling off the last half of his stack with ace high. Gotta love the micros.

bjsaust - the theorem offers no refunds. Yeah, I'd caution you to be careful with it - especially tricky or especially retarded villains may be immune to its cold, calculating logic.

[dalecooper]

Results on this hand: Villain had AQ and the kings are goot.

[dalecooper]

Theorem footnote: I'd warn practitioners to take a close look at the turn card when sizing up a surprise donk bet. Let's take a pretty average, somewhat coordinated flop:

:Qd:

Raised pot of course. Villain checks, you bet with any two cards, and villain calls. The turn card is...

:Ts:

...and villain donks. Why? Well a couple things may have happened here: 1. Villain had a flush draw (say, Ad Jd or Ad Td) and has now added a straight draw or a pair to it. 2. Villain had a pocket pair like TT, and has just hit a miracle set. 3. Villain had top pair (QT) and has now made two pair.

The key thing about this card is that in all cases it did two things: A. improved the villain's hand strength, and B. made the board texture more dangerous, which is possibly what induces him to donk (don't want to run the risk of letting it check through).

So for these reasons, a ten (even a non-diamond ten) on the turn may poke some holes in the theorem. But a 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7 here probably changes nothing - it's not improving much of villain's likely range, unless he's really loose and bad.

[bjsaust]

Yeah, I was going to add that. If they are slowplaying and the turn makes the board more dangerous for their hand they'll sometimes donk out.

[Da GOAT]

ive a few hands from last night where i tried this stuff out

[Da GOAT]

i missed read his stack size but i think our poitn is valid.

67/15 over 144 hands. 45% A%. 43% Fold2cb

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG sonicen ($50.45)
UTG+1 gadi12345 ($109.60)
CO DOLLARIHYMY ($197.00)
BTN Hero ($190.75)
SB Balian123 ($195.00)
BB hardtoplease ($295.98)

Pre-flop: ($3, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, gadi12345 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, gadi12345 calls $7

Flop: ($21, 2 players)
gadi12345 checks, Hero bets $15, gadi12345 calls $15

Turn: ($51, 2 players)
gadi12345 bets $24, Hero raises to $61.50, gadi12345 folds

Final Pot: $136.50

Hero wins $133.50 ( won +$48 )
gadi12345 lost -$48.00


33/0 over 21 hands. not history. not sure what exactly i should do with the hand since ive hit an ace but again shoving turn lead is goot.

$1/$2 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG zaino ($274.05)
CO Lumpsucker ($148.05)
BTN Hero ($196.00)
SB ace662 ($240.55)
BB trinoo ($348.17)

Pre-flop: ($3, 5 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, Lumpsucker calls $2, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, Lumpsucker calls $7

Flop: ($21, 2 players)
Lumpsucker bets $10.50, Hero raises to $28, Lumpsucker calls $17.50

Turn: ($77, 2 players)
Lumpsucker bets $38.50, Hero raises to $159, Lumpsucker folds

Final Pot: $274.50

Hero wins $271.50 ( won +$75.50 )
Lumpsucker lost -$75.50

[dalecooper]

Bump for evidence. Villain is a 40/23/3 semi-donk but not quite as bad postflop as the numbers might suggest.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($107.15)
Button ($288.10)
SB ($117.10)
BB ($234.70)
UTG ($160.50)
MP ($113.55)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 2, 2
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) Q, 9, A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5

Turn: ($16.50) A (2 players)
BB bets $7, Hero raises to $19, 1 fold

Total pot: $30.50 | Rake: $1.50