2/4 - Big river bruff 200bb deep

[zook]

Villain is a reg running 21/16/3.2, 35% btn steal. Not much history, a few orbits ago he 3barreled a Q32 two-tone, A turn, 5 river (no flush) from UTG and I folded river. Comments on all streets appreciated.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($892)
SB ($1286)
Hero (BB) ($795)
UTG ($406)
MP ($554.75)
CO ($486)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q
3 folds, Button raises to $14, 1 fold, Hero calls $10

Flop: ($30) 8, J, 10 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $22, Hero calls $22

Turn: ($74) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $70, Hero raises to $240, Button calls $170

River: ($554) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $519 (All-In)

[Fnord]

What's he flatting the turn raise with?

[zook]

What's he flatting the turn raise with?

Sets, 9's and JT?

[griffey24]

What's he flatting the turn raise with?

Yah, this is what has me worried too.

If I'm gonna bluff in this spot, I prefer a turn lead and river bet again. We'll have a lot clearer idea where we're at on this spot, especially since he might actually raise our donk lead on the turn with 9x some of the time on the turn, so we can feel better about barreling this turn/river if we're just called on turn.

Leading turn/river also keeps the bluff cheaper, and its a pretty believable line for how you might play 9x here. Not sure if you'd go for a turn c/r with 9x here that often, as you'd be worried about it getting checked through a lot?

[griffey24]

What's he flatting the turn raise with?

Sets, 9's and JT?

I think sets and JT might even check back here a fair bit, as 9x is a huge part of your c/c range on the flop.

So his range for betting this turn is pretty polarized to 9x, some sets, and air.

Given above, his range for betting AND calling is... pretty strong I feel?

I don't mind shutting down on the river here.

[will641]

i like everything and then just shut down on river. his calling that c/r is pretty scary. doesnt seem like hes calling to see if you are bruffing too often.

[Fnord]

I like the river shove a lot more if you play with him regularly.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Just fold turn he's not bluffing, and his turn betting range isnt exploitable.