Best Straight on Paired Board.

[mixchange]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($260.15)
MP ($229)
CO ($37.20)
Button ($203)
SB ($402)
BB ($86.70)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, J
Hero raises to $6, 2 folds, Button calls $6, 1 fold, BB calls $4

Flop: ($19) 10, 10, 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $12, Button calls $12, 1 fold

Turn: ($43) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button raises to $42, Hero calls $28

River: ($127) 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $143 (All-In), Hero...


vs. 14/11/2.8
3.6% 3bet, though thats low prolly cuz i mostly have FR stats vs. him.. 1.3K total hands, prolly .9K fr

seem like a snap call based on his betsize, no?

[GatorJH]

paired boards suck.

If his range is something like JJ-88,JTs,T9s,98s,87s you have 54% equity against that range. I am not great with the math aspect but I think this is VERY close either way.

Folding seems to make me feel dirty, but I don't hate it either.

[griffey24]

Why did you bet so small on the turn? After betting so small, his turn raise can mean anything now, since you could have induced.

He can be value betting T's even, given how weak your turn bet looks, so you kinda gotta call here.

[IowaSkinsFan]

Bet bigger on the turn but river is a snap call its really, really not even close. I'm pretty happy about calling to.

[thizzSantaCruz]

I was gonna say fold but didn't intially notice how small the turn bet was. You have to call it off now. If you bet 3/5-3/4 pot on turn and he raised it would be different.

[minSim]

I would snapcall

[Luke999]

What 10 do we put him on that a 14/11 calls on the button that hasn't hit a FH? I mean he could have A10 suited but other than that hands like 910ss have boated and Im not sure if he calls 8 10ss pre.

I'd fold on the turn, though if your calling the turn then you have to call the river bet.

It is obviously unlikely villain has 10 10 but it has to be in his range, but it really looks like he has either 88 or 99 (99 would make more sense as played), or complete air.

But as played I'd fold the turn, after calling the turn RR and the river bricks, unless he put you on a draw himself he expects a call on the river.

What is your image btw, is your UTG range narrow or wide?

[mixchange]

Given that I bet to induce on turn I don't think we can fold turn Luke.

I like betting small here, maybe 18 or $20 is better, I 2x barrel enough that I want to keep along some of his weaker PP's like 77 and 66, or J9. I expected him to raise with any ten at this point, but I expected him to bet smaller on the river for value with just a 10

Given that we're UTG, I'm sure he expects us to have an overpair here enough that perhaps we will call it off. The shove was rather instant after I checked, which confused me. A lot of people with their good hands will pause for a moment before deciding how much to bet. But I also attempt to avoid giving timing tells and make quick actions on the river usually, taking longer on turn to decide what I would do on river.

We have to weight some bluffs in his range (e.g. J9, 97) along with a LOT of combos of 10, considering he is OTB. This makes me think we have to call and just deal with the results... but I was so baffled by the instashove, which made me think he was even more likely to be bluffing.

[Luke999]

Given that the guy is a nit then I don't think J9 and 97 are in his range?
The only 10 that doesn't have a boat that he is shoving the river with is J10s?
His range has to be polarized here as he is a nit and I doubt he will try and bluff the river with a hand that has showdown value that beats his percieved range of what you have UTG like AJs-AKs etc And after you call the turn I really don't think he expects a fold in this situation, which is why I would say he has 88/99 most likely.

I doubt he plays a total bluff with a hand like 45s like this, even if he knows your UTG and your range is JJ-AA AJs-AKs and AK/AQos especially after the turn call.

You got the results?

[mixchange]

the stats on him are kinda innaccurate since this is 6m and I got most of them from FR

[nutsinho]

if those arent his 6m stats id call the way you played it but you put yourself in a pretty weird spot by betting so small on the turn. this is a pretty good turn to bet lots of monies on.

[mixchange]

too much FPS i guess

what do you do if you fire 2/3 pot and he raises big? get it in anyway?

[minSim]

I would probably bet like 4/5 to full pot in this board, is that too much?

(I don't know much about turn betsizing, I might be betting too much too often)

[Luke999]

Hmmm well your small turn bet could have caused him to spaz out and with the fast river shot, I agree may be a call.
However if your betting 2/3 pot on turn and he shoves, I think you can get away from that.
Though that being said he could also do it as a semi bluff because your UTG and thinks you can fold AA/KK/QQ/JJ?? and AK etc

What is your image/stats btw out of interest?

It's probablly closer than I thought that i really do have no problem with folding, and if the stats were 6max not FR i'd say its a definate fold.

[Toadstool]

with 3% between VPIP and PFR that means he is generally only calling behind with PP's? If that's the case then surely he is not doing this for value with on the river.

most 14/11's are generally afraid o put in a lot of money with marginal hands, and are not capable of value betting at all thin, they like to get to showdown cheaply with their marginal hands.

22-77 would likely just call the turn - hoping to get a cheap showdown. I doubt villain is capable of turning a made hand into a bluff (a 14/11 anyway)

So that leaves 1010 (really unlikely) 99 (really likely) and 88.

BUT a few factors lean towards making this a call, the fact that you bet really small on the turn will often induce spazzy plays like that, and also an instashove on river would make this more of a call, as well as the majority of his stats being from full ring.

If you had bet say $30 on turn and he had minraised I'd be more inclined to lay this down (on the turn as opposed to calling and folding the river) which is a common mistake where people waste money by calling a turn raise and folding to a blank river to the inevitable shove.