|
|
 Originally Posted by Monty3038
Ok, so we call... now there is around $7 in the pot and a crap card comes on the turn... now what? What if an A comes on the turn? What if another Jack? I' m not worried about Komm.sigi at all, he is in on the turn no matter what. Kenny though, he is 82/18 so he is a station, he's calling the shove no matter what he has at this point based on his stats, so let's re-evaluate... on the turn he is going to be facing into a 7.00 or so pot with 9.30... what is his play? If he is ahead, he shoves... behind he checks. Both lend to give you a lot of info. He's already shown he sucks, based on 82/18. If he checks, I insta shove the turn, no matter what card comes. If he shoves, I fold. He hit his set. If he bets 1/2 pot up to 3/4 pot I think I' m hoping I improved on the turn, at that point without improving, I've got 5 outs, pot would be about 10-12, with about 4 to call, thus 16 to 4, 4:1 so with 5 outs and 1 card left, I' m around 1:10 so I have to fold it... but if I improved on the turn by hitting an A or Jack I' m calling it down...
Does that explain my plan a little better? And it probably doesn't jive but that is how I thought it out quickly.
Good reply.
I'm seesawing a bit on what I think about the hand. I still think Kenny has a generously wide range, including a wide shove calling range - I think shoving is +EV. But it could be marginal and making the call planning to fold to bets on the turn also seems to be bad - if we flat call I don't expect to win full stacks by the river, and yet I do expect stacks to get in. If it was only Kenny I wouldn't be so concerned about stacking off, but Komm may be taking a good chunk out of the total pot so my equity needs to be solid against both players the majority of the time - so I guess there is solid merit in calling one bet only and then be ready to let it go to cut my losses.
I think my concern is if I'm faced with aggression on the turn I can't pinpoint any cards where I think I'll be ahead of the opponents ranges. Except J. It's like, if we're not strong enough to stack off unimproved there's no point us staying in the hand. I know my thinking here is really bad, but I'm trying to come up with a good answer.
None of them can really have JJ the way they played. 44 and 66 are possible for both, though Komm really doesn't have implied odds to call the preflop raise for set value. Maybe Komm is more likely to be on a Jx hand like AJ, KJ, QJ, JTs (all possible in a 17% range, less 3% for 99+, AKs). Most 18% PFR ranges include both 66 and 44, so I guess we can discount them for Kenny - he'd mostly have raised them and has stack size to do it for implied odds. Against me - but not against the only person already in the hand - he may have called a low pocket pair to have correct implied odds against Komm. Seems out of character for a poor player with 18% PFR. 75 and 64 are not in the range for Komm. 75 and 64 may or may not be in the range for Kenny, depending on which limps he'll also call. I'd tend to think stationish people are impressed more with high card value than suitedness and connectedness so maybe he's more likely to have ace-rag or JT than 75, 64.
Komm's flop bet is most consistent with any Jx and Kenny's call is most consistent with any paired hand - A4, A6, QJ, JT, J9, J8 maybe foremost among them. He would call any 44, 66, 64, 75 hand, but he's just not as likely to have gotten through preflop with any of those.
Ok, I seem to have convinced myself that the opponents both have utter shit, leaving the question if we extract more value by shoving or by calling and letting them catch up to what is hopefully a second best hand.
If an A falls I now don't feel so bad about it - I often have simply a better two-pair hand. Cards around 9, T, Q I'd worry about as they are most likely to have made someone else a two-pair hand. 8 is a scare card for the straight, which is honestly a pretty unlikely holding. I think my range has more 75 in it than anyone else and I might pot control an 8 simply because I'd fold out worse and not get any extra value.
So I guess my plan if calling is to
Shove (or call shove): A, K, J, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 (31 cards)
Pot control (check or call small): 8 (4 cards)
Release (check or fold): Q, T, 9 (12 cards)
I still don't pretend to have this hand sorted out. I feel like I can't put my finger on what is more important in this hand. I can analyse bits and pieces of it but can't pick a direction because I can't say for certain what factor should weigh most heavily.
Ok, so I'm not so worried about sets because:
Surely Kenny would raise any pocket pair when his PFR is 18%. That's a lot of hands - surely all pocket pairs are in there.
Komm would have been making a mistake if he called my PFR with 44 or 66 for implied odds. I guess he could have called PF for simple showdown value which with his stack size is maybe not a mistake at all. But his flop bet size when he donks doesn't suggest a set to me.
|
10NL AJo with two villains and J46 flop
($1.80, 3 players)
Reply With Quote
