50NL 3bet bluff

[kmind]

Villain is running 18/16/5.6 with VPIP 38% on the button and folds to 3bets 63% of the time over 1.5k hands. I am guessing he calls with a lot of his PP on this type of flop but should rarely have a K since the Kc is out there which lessons the chance even more that he has AK (I'd guess he 4bets AK pre anyways as his 4bet range is 11%). So on the turn I think he has a PP but is now kind of like "hmm wtf I gotta protect" or "LOL this is 50NL I bet for no reason other than he checked tome!" but cannot stand a c/r. Thoughts? Probably just muck pre is what I expect. But how about the actual bluff?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP ($69.40)
CO ($53.05)
Button ($50.95)
SB ($16.30)
Hero (BB) ($50)
UTG ($48.05)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 9, 7
3 folds, Button raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $5, Button calls $3.50

Flop: ($10.25) K, 8, K (2 players)
Hero bets $5, Button calls $5

Turn: ($20.25) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $10, Hero raises to $40 (All-In)

[jyms]

Folding to steals or folding to 3bets?

I typically 3bet hands with some equity, Suited connectors, suited gappers and suited A's are a much better chioce since we aren't going to call many raises OOP with them anyway.

[kmind]

Sorry - editted my post.

Yeah, I 3bet OOP with all the stuff you mentioned plus sometimes low PP but I can't remember why I decided to add this to my range for this hand. Regardless, this is like the 1st time in billion hands I 3bet with something like this. How's flop/turn?

[FlyingSaucy]

The flop cbet is obv for fold equity, so probably will need to be giving him worse than 3:1 to call.

The all in isn't really a bluff anymore. That's a beautiful turn for you and the only hands that call are Kx or 66 88. I'd crunch the numbers on a KQ+ and pocket pair range to see if you've got good equity.

[jyms]

Other than how you would play that flop w/ AK, AA or QQ I would say it's fine vs this aggro guy. He could easily think you have JJ or QQ and are not committed so he may be squeezing you off. As Saucy said you have some good equity now, so any FE is going to help and he ain't calling without at least a K or an Ac at least.

[bigspenda73]

reasons you thought he'd bet the turn with the range you expect him to fold to a c/r?

[kmind]

reasons you thought he'd bet the turn with the range you expect him to fold to a c/r?

Kind of what I stated above. Seems like he'll be hmm maybe I should bet now with my PP/low % of floats and flush draws but will fold to a shove.

i like it

[meeloche]

He's going to feel so committed on the turn cause there's so much in the pot already. I think he talks himself into a call with like 99+ which is bad for you so I would just give up on the flop. It's really hard to rep flushes/straights in 3 bet pots 100bb deep cause you have so much less of your stack push with. I would just give up after the flop.

[kmind]

I'm actually trying to rep a K a lot moreso than a flush

[bigspenda73]

you'd never c/bomb a king

[griffey24]

you'd never c/bomb a king

yah this is what I thought when I saw this. Why not just barrel here instead of c/bombing?

[thizzSantaCruz]

why are you 3 betting 97o against someone that folds to 3 bets only 63% of the time? Its a steal situation so that number is also probably too high.

[kmind]

why are you 3 betting 97o against someone that folds to 3 bets only 63% of the time? Its a steal situation so that number is also probably too high.

already went through that but yeah

who likes cbetting on this board?

I almost never give people credit for a king on the flop and I'd float with a lot of hands
I'd probably call with :Td::Tc:

[nutsinho]

who likes cbetting on this board?

I almost never give people credit for a king on the flop and I'd float with a lot of hands
I'd probably call with :Td::Tc:

well i fucking hope so. you are the next Jman.

[mcatdog]

Haha.

I'd rather just bet $10 on the turn myself, I think most people who flopped a monster won't be able to resist raising, especially with the three clubs on the board. If they just call the turn their range is weighted to two pair hands, probably with a club so you might have a profitable bluff opportunity on the river.

[a500lbgorilla]

How do I reach these keeeeeedz?