NL100 AA deep 3bpot vs nitty ?station?

[ZwiFT]

A wierd guy, playing 10/9/4
wtsd:80
3b:2
Fold3b:20
4b:0

I don't have any "personal" reads because im multitabling, but his wtsd is sick. He might be on a heater (150 hands db) but i think its more likely he's just a preflop tight station.

Good to notice; if he was on a heater i think his 3b and 4b stats should be higher given the small sample

Given that he doesnt 4b leads me to belive he is able to flat preflop with KK-AA, tho i think he would more likely 4b AA.

I'm playing regular tagg 2+2/cr style

Given his stats i would but a wide calling range here, he is also aggressive which leads me to believe he can raise flop ip with a draw? Not very sure because its a 3b pot

Ive given him a range of 22,66,99,AsQs,AsKs,QQ+. Tho i can see his range being even wider?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($101.75)
MP2 ($295.80)
MP3 ($126.15)
Button ($82.20)
Hero (SB) ($176.35)
BB ($105)
UTG ($20)
UTG+1 ($100)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, A
3 folds, MP2 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero raises to $11, 1 fold, MP2 calls $8

Flop: ($23) 6, 9, 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP2 raises to $37, Hero raises to $70, MP2 calls $33

Turn: ($163) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $95.35 (All-In), MP2 calls $95.35

River: ($353.70) 7 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $353.70 | Rake: $3

Before you ask, the reason i minraise the flop was to make him do something stupid with a drawy hand or even just overs, AK or something. Downside was he got sick odds to call to see a turn, which leads me to believe his range is even wider.

Given my range:

Hand 0: 44.754% 42.77% 01.99% 10161 472.50 { QQ+, 99, 66, 22, AsKs, AsQs }
Hand 1: 55.246% 53.26% 01.99% 12654 472.50 { AcAd }

If we add in the turncard, my equity goes up to 58.x%

What range do you give this person? And how would you play the hand?

[ZwiFT]

Whats weird about this hand, is that if he's not a station and just on a heater. Which he could be given his stack size, then my equity gets crushed here.

What to do if you have a feeling he is playing like a station but your not 100% sure?

[euphoricism]

don't really see what else you can do. That range you gave him is probably too wide for a 10/9. Most will fold 22/66, so I'd discount that a pretty good bit. Maybe half. So put in 66 but not 22 or something. And yeah, I don't like flop minraise even a little.

[BankItDrew]

After villain calls the min raise:
3 sets, TT+, 78, flush draws.

I really think you messed up this hand. You are playing deep and did not bet properly throughout the hand. You need to make villain make mistakes.

I'm making it more like $12+ to go preflop, 4/5+ cbet, and not min raising anywhere.

[kmind]

After villain calls the min raise:
78, flush draws.

78? and flush draws you meant AsKs right?

[ZwiFT]

Thanks for the feedback and criticisms so far.

When it comes to my 3betting size 11$ is my standard from blinds when they open for 3$. Deviating from this might result in him being a little bit more suspicious about my cards.

I agree that 22 isn't in his range.

Another thing, with the minraise, I really don't see him calling with tt+,66,99 as i think he would shove with these hands. Even with KK+,99,66 i would have about 49% equity! And if he smooth calls i have to get away from a turn spade.

[ZwiFT]

Oh and 78 is not in his range here

[ATOTHEC101]

Considering your deep I make it $14 pre, then bet $24 on flop, if he then made it say $58 id shove, ez game. My bet sizing is effected purely by the villain, against a better player id only bet $21 on the flop then when he raised I wouldnt mind a small 4 bet like like 2.2x his 3 bet as it looks bluffier and makes it more likely hell shove his 1010-qq hands plus a bunch of draws/ 9x type of hands. Against this guy who sounds like a calling station my main priority is to make my bet sizing bigger and get the money in asap.

[badgers]

Uh I don't really like this at all. 150 hands is nothing when it comes to wtsd especially as he's nitty. You're looking at either 5 or 10 hands with him seeing a flop which is absolutely nothing. There's one maybe 2 fds in his range and 9 set combos. I can't see why everyones so anxious to stack off here with just one weird stat over a meaningless sample. Fwiw a we would expect a higher wtsd anyway because he's nitty preflop, and it could also be because of him being nitty postflop and not vbetting enough. Without seeing what he's shown down calling him a station is extremely dangerous.

[ZwiFT]

Uh I don't really like this at all. 150 hands is nothing when it comes to wtsd especially as he's nitty. You're looking at either 5 or 10 hands with him seeing a flop which is absolutely nothing. There's one maybe 2 fds in his range and 9 set combos. I can't see why everyones so anxious to stack off here with just one weird stat over a meaningless sample. Fwiw a we would expect a higher wtsd anyway because he's nitty preflop, and it could also be because of him being nitty postflop and not vbetting enough. Without seeing what he's shown down calling him a station is extremely dangerous.

If his range here is QQ+,99,66, AsKs, we got 62% equity on flop and 65% equity on turn, even if his range really is KK+,99,66,AsKs we have 50% equity.

Given that he calls the flop i can only put him on a fd?

[Sprayed]

Uh I don't really like this at all. 150 hands is nothing when it comes to wtsd especially as he's nitty. You're looking at either 5 or 10 hands with him seeing a flop which is absolutely nothing. There's one maybe 2 fds in his range and 9 set combos. I can't see why everyones so anxious to stack off here with just one weird stat over a meaningless sample. Fwiw a we would expect a higher wtsd anyway because he's nitty preflop, and it could also be because of him being nitty postflop and not vbetting enough. Without seeing what he's shown down calling him a station is extremely dangerous.

If his range here is QQ+,99,66, AsKs, we got 62% equity on flop and 65% equity on turn, even if his range really is KK+,99,66,AsKs we have 50% equity.

Given that he calls the flop i can only put him on a fd?

He didn't call the flop, he min raised you.

[ZwiFT]

He didnt shove on the flop, he called mine

[Sprayed]

Why would a flush drawing nit call your min rereraise?

[badgers]

he isnt raising kk on the flop...

[Sprayed]

I asked because I don't know how a nit would play a flush draw in this situation. Would he really min raise the flop and then smooth call the min 4bet? I can see a call preflop with pps including QQ. Maybe a monster draw would do this, but I would think that most would just get it in. A set or something like TT-QQ might give you this kind of action on the flop.

[badgers]

well it certainly makes more sense with a nfd than it does with TT-KK. A nfd might raise because "that's the standard line with a nfd on the flop" and the call because of the huge pot odds and $95 implied just for good measure. It's not a particularly coherent line but it kinda works.

With TT+ it just makes no sense whatsoever. Is it a raise for value or as a bluff? It would be such a retarded raise and while I guess it is possible I would discount it heavily.