The overbet shove

[allabout]

V is very familiar w/me, plays tight passive 12/6/1.9 over 3400 hands. His c/pre and lead the flop looks very much to me like either flush draw or pp 5's or 4's or could also be a weakish A. Turn lead still looks flush drawish or could be a set, but I would think he would bet more to protect from the draw, but my line looks very much like a flush draw. So question is do you like the overbet on the river to rep a missed flush draw? Or bet smaller for value from weak Aces or something like a mid pp played wierd?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 ($17.90)
Hero (MP1) ($101.50)
MP2 ($115.40)
MP3 ($104.20)
CO ($100)
Button ($42.95)
SB ($101.50)
BB ($99.75)
UTG ($112.60)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, A
UTG calls $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, 4 folds, SB calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($4) 5, A, 4 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $4, UTG calls $4, Hero calls $4, SB calls $4

Turn: ($20) 9 (4 players)
SB checks, BB bets $10, 1 fold, Hero calls $10, 1 fold

River: ($40) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $86.50 (All-In)

[bigspenda73]

you really think he checks the majority of the range that will call this?

[allabout]

I think he checks either hands that he wants to see a cheaper showdown, like Ax, missed flush draws, or if he thinks I'll bet with a missed draw. Its possible he could even have something like 88, TT, JJ although much less likely, but he probably doesn't put me on many Aces.

I was thinking if I overbet it might look more like a bluff than if I bet like $25 - $35 and I might get him to call a little lighter. Also if he's trying to be tricky with a boat he might not raise because he's somewhat passive but might think I would fold to a bet, but bet a missed draw.

[bigspenda73]

I'd just bet smallish, get looked up by his bluff catchers and he'll c/bomb his worse boats.

You would have to show me some pretty convincing math as to how jamming is better than like $20-30 or something.

[Fnord]

I would just raise the turn to $40 and pay off a set.

[allabout]

I would just raise the turn to $40 and pay off a set.

Ya I was wondering about this line, if this would be best...

[Fnord]

You're thinking way too deep about this hand and missed a really easy value play.

[allabout]

Oh he snapcalled. Thats what got me thinking about this line and whether its one I can use in other spots or just got the right player with the right hand, and he didn't have a boat so I was surprised.

[Fnord]

he didn't have a boat so I was surprised.

His turn bet suggests he's either blocking with a draw or has an Ax. 2pr is far more likely than a set given the pre-flop action.

[bigspenda73]

I'd be really surprised to get called by worse than teh old 23 BB special

I guess he can have 9hXh, missed that earlier

[allabout]

His turn bet suggests he's either blocking with a draw or has an Ax. 2pr is far more likely than a set given the pre-flop action.

Given the preflop and flop action I really thought set. But the turn did seem like a blocking bet. So you still think v/bet is the better line though, right? I guess something like Ax like A4 or A5 might call a smaller bet more?

[allabout]

I'd just bet smallish, get looked up by his bluff catchers and he'll c/bomb his worse boats.

You would have to show me some pretty convincing math as to how jamming is better than like $20-30 or something.

I'm gonna try the math after I'm done playing, just so I can see if I do it right, and what I come up with.

[Fnord]

HE CHECKED HIS OPTION HE HAS TWO NON-PREMIUM CARDS.

We raise the turn because his draws may not bluff the river plus he'll call down and shove over with worse hands.

[allabout]

I'd be really surprised to get called by worse than teh old 23 BB special

I guess he can have 9hXh, missed that earlier

AQo

[Fnord]

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL