but i have top pair top kicker 600NL

[Deanglow]

Villain friar skank, a standard 14/11 but often does dumb/spewy shit. The donk bettor does that a lot with air from what I've seen (and I'm sure friar knows it too). What it do

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop | saw showdown

UTG+1 ($636)
MP1 ($617.95)
MP2 ($600)
Hero (MP3) ($1320)
CO ($600)
Button ($621.35)
SB ($616.50)
BB ($1037.95)
UTG ($1063.70)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K
UTG calls $6, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $24, Hero calls $24, CO calls $24, Button calls $24, 2 folds, UTG calls $18

Flop: ($129) J, K, 2 (5 players)
UTG bets $12, MP2 raises to $88, Hero calls $88, 3 folds

Turn: ($317) 7 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks

River: ($317) 2 (2 players)
MP2 bets $211, Hero

[Erpel]

I'm probably an idiot (and I am a beginner), but I thought this was an interesting way to look at this type of hand.

Since we are closing the action on the river if we call and proceed straight to the show down, I'm entertaining this thought experiment.

By the river bet the villain has put $325 into the middle. For the sake of this look at the hand I'm going to pretend he started with $325 in his hand and that was the effective stack.

This puts me in a raised pot, 5 way with an SPR of 299/129 around 2.3. If I was asked in a vacuum how I'd like to see a flop in a raised pot with AK hitting TPTK on a rainbow semi-connected flop against this opponent with an SPR of 2.3 I'd probably feel pretty good about it and be prepared to stack off.

By this I mean, as applied to the actual situation I'm inclined to call the river, which causes the hand to have played out as if it had had an SPR of 2.3 on the flop.

On the actual hand...

The problematic bit of course is that the villain here bet a medium amount into 4 opponents on the flop after having placed a raise preflop. It's easy to give him credit for AA, KK, JJ or 22 as he would need to be prepared for multiway action on later streets also and probably wouldn't bet too often on a pure bluff.

Call it lack of imagination but I don't think the villain is weak enough here that we can raise. But I also don't think we can fold. We need to win 28.6% of the time or more for calling to be correct. And I wouldn't be too shocked to see the villain show up with QQ, AK, AQ, QT type hands often enough for it to be profitable to call.

I don't think this one's as simple as deciding on a hand range and plugging it into PokerStove, because I think a lot of the hands in his range will only have made a flop bet of that size in a 5way pot some of the time. I feel quite strongly about QT making this medium bet on the flop, playing a draw and bluffing at the river, but the corrolary is the set that became quads or a full house.

I call.

[Jason]

Unless you have a good read to the contrary, I think you have to call. I infer you feel like he was letting the pot get big because of the "donk bettor". You're getting about 7 to 3 on your money, so if you think you can win the pot 3 out of 10 times in this situation, a call is profitable. Thinking about how the hand played out, the only one that makes sense to me that you're beat is maybe A2. Hands that he has that you could beat that make sense are KJ, KQ, AQ, QT, or any two spades of which one is probably a Jack. Sure, it's possible he has a set, but if he did, I think he would have bet the turn.

I would have liked to see a bet on the turn from you to have a better idea where you stand. If he calls/raises and then leads out on the river, you're probably beat. If he calls and then checks, you probably win and can make a value bet. If he folds the turn bet, then obviously you win, which is exactly what you want with a pot that size with TPTK. As it is, the check/check and bet on the river could be a trap or could be an attempt to steal since he picked up on weakness because all you've done to this point in his eyes is play very passively with a call, call, check.

[Parasurama]

I really don't see what hands play this way except AA/JJ/KK/AK/KJ. The bet sizing on the river makes it look like a value bet, obviously you can read this either way.

Do you think villain is spewy enough to raise QQ/AQ/KQ with 3 players who cold-called a 3b behind him and then bet on the river with you flatting the flop? Do you have villain's 3b preflop %?

I like the title of this thread, it's like "I know he has me beat but I have top pair top kicker..."

[swiggidy]

Hey guys. This is 600NL. If you're not even at 100NL you have no idea what's going on (even then you probably still have no idea but I can't speak from experience because I'm not there either).

In my opinion you should not even be reading these threads because trying to think on a high level is detrimental to microstakes learning.

Thanks
~Swig

[Jason]

I really don't see what hands play this way except AA/JJ/KK/AK/KJ.

If you're right about that and villain has an equal chance of having each holding, I think you'd still be right to call the river @ that point. You lose the $211 bet if he has one of the three pocket pairs (net loss $633), you split the pot with the AK (net gain $158.8 - the pot BEFORE the call divided by 2), and with KJ you get the whole pot before you call $528 ---> $53.8 = $528 + $158.8 - $633. The only thing that can beat you is a set, deuce, or aces. Obviously if you think he has it, you got to let it go, but like I said, with the odds you're getting, you'd need to be more than 70% sure. That last bet on the river seems too thin to me - too thin for value with a monster like KK or JJ and too thin for a bluff. At any rate, I think it prices you in and win or lose, calling should also give you some valuable information on how he plays, which it looks like you could use some on him

My guess is you folded, but if not, send me a private message with what he had. I'm curious.

EDIT: Requested PM

[swiggidy]

My guess is you folded, but if not, what did he have?

RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAWWWWWWWWWWWRRRRRRRRR

[Renton]

seems like a straightforward fold

[mcatdog]

My guess is you folded, but if not, what did he have?

Please don't post stuff like this. This is a strategy forum, not story hour.

Edit: I'd fold here most of the time, but I'd call with AA I think?

[d0zer]

Serious question: why call flop if we're gunna fold river?

Does he ever do this on flop with worse and then check it all the way down given how may saw the flop?

[bigspenda73]

this is a really out there question, but could we turn our hand into a bluff here? What are the chances he folds KJ/AK/AA if we do?

[nutsinho]

My guess is you folded, but if not, what did he have?

Please don't post stuff like this. This is a strategy forum, not story hour.

Edit: I'd fold here most of the time, but I'd call with AA I think?

perfect

[Deanglow]

Calling might be the worst option

[bigspenda73]

ya seems like it

[mcatdog]

Calling might be the worst option

Wow...you think he's betting AK himself to push you off a chop, and now you want to shove to make him fold AK? I overlooked that aspect of the hand at first, but I think for shoving to be better than calling, he has to not only fold AK, he has to fold KJs and perhaps even AA.

[technician]

i have to firstly admit i am in the micro category of some of the other previous posters. but any way some of my thoughts i was curious about.

It seems you know this villian reasonably well? so is it possible has has one of the hands which has been previously mentioned (which you have beat) and he knows that by making his play on the river look like a value bet he has more chance to push you off your hand?

you have already said sometimes he does spewy shit. from what ive read you are trying to think what you would do in his position. im sure somewhere on these forums i once read, " dont try and think what you would do in their situation, try and think what they would do in that situation".

Ok flame away haha, but thought this was an interesting thread and wanted to add my 2c.

[Miffed22001]

Calling might be the worst option

Wow...you think he's betting AK himself to push you off a chop, and now you want to shove to make him fold AK? I overlooked that aspect of the hand at first, but I think for shoving to be better than calling, he has to not only fold AK, he has to fold KJs and perhaps even AA.

i feel your turn check kinda tips your hand strength allowing villain to bet river first with impunity knowing you are trying to think yourself into making a call with one pair hands.

Isnt shoving here if you feel he has AK one pair type hands the best option - i dont see how calling can be an option its either fold or raise and i dont see how raising is good unless he can fold one pair and/or you play sets this way.

Mcat - if opp can fold AA here id certainly shove but id have to be sure that he can

[allabout]

this is a really out there question, but could we turn our hand into a bluff here? What are the chances he folds KJ/AK/AA if we do?

Deanglow would you play a hand like KK or JJ this way against this villain?

[Deanglow]

i can do a lot of things

[daven]

I don't know too much about your image - does he expect you to flat AK pre? How about JJ?

You are ahead here about never, I don't think there's much QQ/TT in his range.

Is shoving an option? Downside about shoving is that he's probably calling AA - so i think it's -EV.

To me, that makes this an unhappy fold, but i probably call cos I suck and then I get results orientated and think i played well when he flips QQ.

I'm curious about your AK play pre-flop - I've seen this a couple of hands now, and know there must be a reason. I'm still kinda auto-pilot 3-betting AK, but that's 100 rather than 200nl.

[mediumhand]

think i'd consider snapping htis even with QQ............
edit:AJ actually =D

[floptquadswunc]

Hero never bet or raised one time, at all, throughout the entire hand. How in the hell is the villain supposed to put you on anything like AK? Just call already. Christ. Didn't you slowplay the hand to catch a bluff?!?!? You got there as cheap as possible, just call, and hurry the F up!!!! I'm not sure how you guys can never bet or raise and then try to put someone on a hand on the river... impossible. Villain could literally have pocket fives here. Call.

[nutsinho]

bluff raising is so bad...

[donkbee]

If MP2 had checked the river, what would have been the best play?

[2ndline.4thstreet]

If MP2 checked on the river, I say bet the pot.

[ATOTHEC101]

if mp2 checks the river, bet $211.

[Gshark]

And then if he raises?

[bjsaust]

We're heavily discounting bluffs because of the multi-way flop?

[BankItDrew]

Bluff raising is a horrible move.

Didn't we check the turn because we wanted a bet to go in on a good river card? Why did we check the turn if we planned on folding to a 2/3pot river bet? The turn check is great, I just think the reasoning behind it may be flawed - because I am loosing sight as to why we did it.

There needs to a be a plan throughout this hand. If the you are going to fold to 2nd barrels either on the turn or the river from this guy, you should be giving up on the flop.

[Deanglow]

I thought about bluffing the turn which is what you're doing if you bet

[2ndline.4thstreet]

I thought about bluffing the turn which is what you're doing if you bet

Yes and no. Its not like you have nothing.

[BankItDrew]

I thought about bluffing the turn which is what you're doing if you bet

Villains flop raise could be nothing more than a cbet.

[floptquadswunc]

once again, hero never gave villain any indication he has anything at all, except the calling throughout. I think you guys must be joking here to advise folding OR raising. If you are beat it is your own fault for not finding out sooner where you were in the hand. You must CALL as it appears this is what your play has set up. I think some guys on this forum get off on being the "don't" every discussion. I'm trying to learn, but not sure about a lot of the advice. Seems fishy to me. The best advice was Drew talking about having a plan when you play a hand. It looks like your plan was to induce a bluff from a spewy player, so what's up? Good call, good plan, nice profit. Or, you lost the minimum, whatever, you played it perfectly (as long as you called on the river).

[ultros8]

Everyone in the "call river since we induced a bluff" camp - our hand looks like exactly what it is and the board ran out absolutely dire for villain to want to bluff, plus given our line it doesn't look like we're planning on folding a blank river too often. You really think he's going to get here with 55 or some crap and now decide he'll try to bluff us off our apparent AK/KQ?

We call flop because he could still have a lot of stuff there, but after we've called flop and checked back turn, it's now an awful spot to bluff and villain's range is a LOT more narrow.

imo

[Jason]

Maybe I'll change my mind one day, but for me it comes down to a simple premise. With little to no reads and ONE of the reads being that the pot got inflated because of loose villain who was pushed out, do we think we will lose this pot MORE than 7 times out of 10? I don't think so. There are very few combinations of cards that have us beat. Good players will bluff with air or mediocre hands they know can't win and make it look like a value bet so that it looks like hero/we should fold for all the reasons people here are advocating folding. Bad players will value bet with worse hands. I think calling a relatively small bet relative to the pot on the river with a worse hand is a small mistake even if it is a mistake at all.

Now, I could definitely make arguments how the pre-flop, flop, and turn could have been played differently or why it was played in a way I don't consider optimal, but as far as fold, call, or raise at the river based on everything that has happened, I still say call and start taking some notes and getting some better reads and ranges for next time.

[Deanglow]

OK sometimes I forget that others don't have even close to the same poker instincts as I do (this can be good or bad). In this hand his range consists ENTIRELY ( by this I mean great than 95% of the time he will have one of these hands) of AK, 22, JJ, KK, KJ (less often), and AA once he bets this river. Yeah, it is wider than that on the flop/turn but that info is almost irrelevant now.

[floptquadswunc]

Villain has AA, has to have AA. he was worried hero flopped set when hero called on the flop. Villain then checked turn and it was checked behind. So, no set for hero.... flush does not complete and board pairs on the end making aces up good. I take it all back. I see it now. I WOULD STILL CALL BECAUSE VILLAIN MUST HAVE AA TO HAVE YOU BEAT. I can't think of another hand, that beats hero, that villain would play in this fashion.

I humbly apologize.

[ultros8]

You may jest, but AA is almost certainly the 2nd most likely hand for us to see here after AK.

Even throwing in a couple of QTs bluffs which are pretty unlikely, we only have 27% equity (and this only includes suited KJ combos):

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

18 games 0.001 secs 18,000 games/sec

Board: Jh Ks 2c 7s 2h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 27.778% 11.11% 16.67% 2 3.00 { AdKh }
Hand 1: 72.222% 55.56% 16.67% 10 3.00 { KK+, JJ, 22, AKs, KJs, QdTd, QhTh, AKo }

I'm pretty sure there's no way villain bets KQ here or bluffs with a greater frequency than I've allowed for there.

[Jason]

Obviously if you put him on ranges 95% of the time where 6 out of 7 times you lose and 1 out of 7 you split, you should fold, which is what I think you did. With little to no reads, though, I couldn't pinpoint a range on anyone that specifically or that confidently, but that's me. If you have more stats and notes to share, tell us. If you're basing it on how most villains play at those stakes, maybe that's valid, and while I do tend to give an unknown player more credit than he may deserve until he proves otherwise, I also try not to give him too much either.

But, to play devil's advocate:

Pre-flop action: 4x raise from MP makes sense with AK, JJ, KK, and AA, not so much 22 or KJ - other hands that would make sense AQ, TT, QQ, suited connectors, and maybe a few gappers or pocket pairs if he was loose or attempting to balance his range.

Flop action: 68% re-raise of the pot makes sense with AK, AA, QQ and with position on the bettor, lots of drawing hands like AQ or AT. JJ, KK, and 22 seem less likely for a raise of that amount - I would expect more with a set.

Turn action: Eliminating the sets JJ, KK, 22, and 77 seems even more likely. A smart villain would have thought, "how do I get the rest of my $576 in the pot"? He would want to get the money in the pot. How do you make money WITHOUT putting money in the pot? You've called him twice. Why would he put the brakes on now? At this juncture, after two streets of betting, he has only put in 15% of his remaining stack after the flop. If villain regularly plays made sets this way, then you WANT to play pots with him because he is not maximizing his value - not even close. AK, QQ, and drawing hands seem MORE likely now plus a backdoor flush may have come into the picture.

River action: The fact that there are two 2's on board almost eliminates the possibility to me that he has pocket 2's just based on statistics and even more so how the hand played out. It's worth considering that AK and AA are less likely villain holdings to a degree simply because you have an ace and a king. Like I've said, you could definitely be beat. He could easily show down with hands like AA or maybe he was playing a set in a way I'd consider tricky or sub-optimal. I can tell you if I flopped a set, money would be getting in the pot or you would be folding. But, with few reads, playing this hand out 100 times, I'd guess against a bad, average, good, and possibly very good player, he doesn't have you beat more than 70% of the time.

[Jason]

You may jest, but AA is almost certainly the 2nd most likely hand for us to see here after AK.

Even throwing in a couple of QTs bluffs which are pretty unlikely, we only have 27% equity

I think AK is a very likely holding and AA is definitely possible. 27% isn't that bad when we only need 30%.

[IowaSkinsFan]

My thoughts:

Flop raise is clearly more than a cbet, you could probably make an argument based on timing to fold the flop.

Turn: When he checks it looks a lot like AA/AK, and I'd guess he has this a majority of the time. That being said there's really no reason to get fancy here and try to bluff him off a hand this strong. It's not how your going to win money at this table and I fear he's not folding AK/AA anyways. BUT you have a huge advantage because your hand on the flop looks a shitload like JJ/22, so if you are pretty sure he will fold AK/AA, then I don't see why you don't bet turn 100-110 and shove river.

River: Same logic as turn, i'm not sure what looks stronger, shoving over this bet or betting turn. I think betting turn definitely lowers our risk that we see a nut hand like KK/JJ/KJs, since sometimes these hands may very well c/r all in over a small bet.


Conclusion: Just fold

[xJuergenx]

My thoughts:

why did villain check the turn ? Intention to check-raise without being afraid of giving you a free card (i think he definately does not put you on a FD) ? Being worried about the call after his reraise on the flop and putting you eventually on a set or a higher set ? I personally woud put him on JJ with no possibility for the oponent of a having completed flush and at the same time he made himself the boat. So i would fold.

And btw even for knowing how good i was at putting the player on a hand i really would like to know (after a certain time of discussion what villain really had. This at least to me takes part of strategy.

(i know i'm quite new to the forum and i'm not playing this limit so please excuse if i'm totally out of the range)

[thefatman313]

here is my take: He does Air bets some of the time and after you failed to bet the turn he judged you weak--prompting a %60 bet on river...high enough for you to fold and appear as value.... OR He has AA or AK was affraid of a 2 pair kinda hand and when he hit his 2 pair no longer affraid of KJ type of hand and bets....

[Deanglow]

1. he never bets air on this river (especially this size) because my hand looks like what it is
2. he never expects me to fold it

[floptquadswunc]

1. he never bets air on this river (especially this size) because my hand looks like what it is
2. he never expects me to fold it

But Deanglow.... why did you call the flop if you're now going to fold the river? The only add'l info you provided to villain is that you were weak (when you checked turn). You stated villain was spewy, yet you fold to a spew play. You have me convinced that villain has you beat, but I just can't fold here... I just hate your check on the turn if you are planning to possibly fold to a bet on the river. I thought the whole point of the turn check was to see river cheaply. If that wasn't the reason for the turn check then why did you call the flop?

If you KNOW he NEVER bluffs here, and you KNOW he never bets thin value here (Although, only thin value I see is KQ or AK, maybe QQ), than yes, I guess you have to fold the river. I think you called by fact you saw showdown tho.....

Good post too BTW.. It definitely made me think deeply, and sometimes had me going in circles. This game is hard

[poker3player333]

I don't think he would check the turn on two pair or possibly would with a busted st8 draw, possibly something like A2 and maybe a loose call preflop? I'd call here and hope for the best of course.

[BankItDrew]

I want to know why we are calling the flop with the intention on never putting anymore chips in the pot.

[IowaSkinsFan]

I want to know why we are calling the flop with the intention on never putting anymore chips in the pot.

Because opp can conceivably raise the flop with worse, and those hands wont put any more money in the pot.