2/4 AQ 3ways

[bspahn]

somewhat nitty fold perhaps, but I really don't like this spot here at all.
I expect villain to 3bet AK here every time esp since my iso range vs the fish is reasonably wide.

playboy 8 is a reg on tilt, tagfish i suppose. when he flats the flop this is already giving me some warning bells. if he has a monster he's flatting here 100% to keep the fish in. he can have AJ/A10 etc here as well, not sure about AQ but obv quite unlikely since I have it.

I think c/f this turn is OK imo, i expect him to check back almost every ace like AJ or worse here, plus he's betting into a fish and me so I don't expect a bluff much here.

you agree?

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG RJM333 ($186.80)
UTG+1 InsideUrMind ($894.60)
CO Hero ($686.90)
BTN Playboy 8 ($400.00)
SB wuleq ($400.00)
BB kzoide ($400.00)

Pre-flop: ($6, 6 players) Hero is CO
RJM333 calls $4, 1 fold, Hero raises to $20, Playboy 8 calls $20, 2 folds, RJM333 calls $16

Flop: ($66, 3 players)
RJM333 checks, Hero bets $42, Playboy 8 calls $42, RJM333 calls $42

Turn: ($192, 3 players)
RJM333 checks, Hero checks, Playboy 8 bets $125

Final Pot: $317

[dev]

This had to have been a planned check/fold. Is bet/fold better? We can bet like $103 and fold to a push by playboy and call RJM. Playboy can be bluffing or semi-bluffing here, but probably not if we lead out the turn.

[bspahn]

the plan was yes to c/f to a substantial bet, as I didnt think he would be bluffing much here, not when I'm repping strong on flop and there's a calling station fish in the hand.

if it's checked behind i value bet the river 100%.

I felt that villain is rarely bluffing here, does he really think it's a good idea to float here in a 3way pot, and there's no draws basically.

Perhaps a bet/fold option is better in this case, he might still call with AJ sometimes, I'm not sure what other hands really call me though from him. I guess best case scenario is to bet, playboy folds and i stack the fish.

[bjsaust]

HU I like b/f, with both players calling flop I think c/f is fine. How often did fish fold postflop? Without stats I'm probably more worried about him.

[bspahn]

let's see, reg was 20/18 with 3bet 6.7

fish was 37/3/1.7 and fold to cbet 61%

i dont think i was too worried about fish, more the reg, his fold to cbet was 57%

also, reg is one of those tagfish who i assume mostly plays for rakeback because his TR curve is super shallow and he's always 12 tabling.

[jimmy44]

On turn reg can also be value betting A9/AT/AJ vs the fish. I think I prefer a b/f with AQ. If called I would c/f river.
If we had A9/T I would prefer a c/f.

[bjsaust]

You've got it backwards. Reg folds to cbets less, he's more likely to float you with a weak hand here. Fish on the other hand folds somewhat on flops, and he limp/called PF and called this flop. Fish is more likely to have the big hand here.

[BigPapi]

On turn reg can also be value betting A9/AT/AJ vs the fish. I think I prefer a b/f with AQ. If called I would c/f river.
If we had A9/T I would prefer a c/f.

you're not valuebtting 2pair here? or you mean if the flop didnt give us 2pair with that hand?

[jimmy44]

On turn reg can also be value betting A9/AT/AJ vs the fish. I think I prefer a b/f with AQ. If called I would c/f river.
If we had A9/T I would prefer a c/f.

you're not valuebtting 2pair here? or you mean if the flop didnt give us 2pair with that hand?

I misread the board ... 9 on flop and T on turn, I thought it was 6 on flop and 7 on turn (I should stop drinking ).
Then c/f on turn is OK, reg would not bet A7/A8 here vs us and fish.

[jimmy44]

Fish on the other hand folds somewhat on flops, and he limp/called PF and called this flop.

This depends a lot on the definition of fish here: is he a passive station? an aggro station? a huge aggro fish like 48/25?

[BigPapi]

yeah I agree then

[elipsesjeff]

Why are we worried about the fish here when we are pot committed vs him on this flop anyway? Personally I feel like our opponent will have AJ/AQ here a lot and probably isn't going to check it back on the turn with the fish in the pot. He's going to have AT/9T/set some here too and if he raises us we'll just have to fold it.

[minSim]

Villain can't really call that light with the 2nd villain still to act on the flop.

I doubt villains is checking back any ace, but I don't know how many aces J- he really has. If he's a standard tag often none.
I also think he can have TT-KK(with different freq)/97s/98s/T9s/J9s as hands that you beat and 44/99/AA/ATs (with a certain freq) as hands that beat you, possibly A4s/A9s/ATo.

That T didn't hit that range very hard. If he's betting AJ+ and being a little pessimistic about villains range, you're having equity like;

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.396% 49.66% 10.73% 590 127.50 { AA, TT-99, 44, AQs-AJs, T9s, AQo-AJo }
Hand 1: 39.604% 28.87% 10.73% 343 127.50 { AdQs }

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 67.708% 59.66% 08.05% 945 127.50 { AA, TT-99, 44, AQs-A9s, A4s, T9s, AQo-ATo }
Hand 1: 32.292% 24.24% 08.05% 384 127.50 { AdQs }

If he's betting like JJ+ because he thinks there's value or doesn't want to give free cards or something, it's like;

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.997% 43.32% 05.68% 972 127.50 { 99+, 44, AQs-A9s, A4s, T9s, AQo-ATo }
Hand 1: 51.003% 45.32% 05.68% 1017 127.50 { AdQs }

A turn check from you defines your hand as marginal. That doesn't matter very much in this situation, because villain never has a hand worse than 9x and he should turn it into a bluff against your turn checking range, so;
- When villain checks behind you can savely bet river. This should happen often.
- When villain bets the turn you can c/c and c/f river because villain will rarely go for 2 added streets of value with a hand worse than yours.
- Depending on how often you think villain has Axs AND he'd bet it for value on both the turn and river, because you range is considerably weaker than you turn betting range, I guess you can c/c river sometimes.

- IF villain is having like all Axs AND you can get 3 streets of value because he's bad or your image is bad, than I'd b/f turn b/f river on this board. Your reads tell otherwise.

[BigPapi]

Jeff, perhaps I'm not thinking about this the right way, but when we're betting here, the majority of his valuerange is gonna be calling right? Ax/2p/sets. I don't see why he would raise, since he can still get the money in easily on the river if he just calls turn bet and calling will keep his range wider. The board isnt scary, since our (fish/us) ranges arent consisting a lot of draws unless we turned something with Ax clubs.

If he calls what is our river action on a blank? the pot is already 450 by then with 200 behind


I'm not too worried about getting it in against fish

[elipsesjeff]

Jeff, perhaps I'm not thinking about this the right way, but when we're betting here, the majority of his valuerange is gonna be calling right? Ax/2p/sets. I don't see why he would raise, since he can still get the money in easily on the river if he just calls turn bet and calling will keep his range wider. The board isnt scary, since our (fish/us) ranges arent consisting a lot of draws unless we turned something with Ax clubs.

If he calls what is our river action on a blank? the pot is already 450 by then with 200 behind


I'm not too worried about getting it in against fish

Yeah, I think the discussion should be entirely focused on how to play against this reg. It is possible that check/calling the turn is more +EV than betting especially if he's going to fold AJ to our turn bet but valuebet it himself. I dont think the villain does call us with worse in this spot unless he had Ax of clubs in his hand, which is pretty unlikely. If you just think about what his cold calling range preflop is combined with the flop I have to think we're still ahead but probably not if we bet and he calls.

But with that we might make less mistakes by betting ourselves and possibly forcing AQ to fold as its easier for us to play and if villain bets the river we're almost certainly behind. This might be a spot where we forgo equity vs the reg in order to realize it from the donk. As you can see I have no idea without more information lol.

[BigPapi]

Exactely, spot on imo

[Fnord]

playboy 8 is a reg on tilt

More details please?

Did he lose a big pot? Series of pots?

Did he loosen up pre-flop? Is he gambling (calling too much) or showing random fits of aggression?

Poker at the level that interests me is about people.

[Marshall28]

I think that you handed this pot to the reg. The position that you feel you're in when checking this turn and having the reg bet into you and the fish seems kinda precarious, but if you are the one to bet the turn, if he doesn't have 2pr or better, you are the one putting him in this exact spot, while still getting value from the fish.

Just bet/folding turn seems like by far best option, it doesn't even need to be that big, like 5/8 to 2/3 pot.