AA 100nl River decision

[bikes]

Villian is -..eyeloverags..- he's is what I believe to be a bad nit. Villian's range for floating this flop is probably something like 55-QQ. I checked the turn to both encourage a 'in his mind' value/protection bet or induce a bluff. I would possibly even contemplate a fold if his bet looks like the nuts. Also because its likely I fold out all the dumb crap hes floating me with like pocket 55,66,88. While I don't believe he is at all capable of bluff raising this turn I don't want to fold out most of his entire range that i beat.

Now that he checked on the turn we can rule out QQ, 77,9x and 99 because this guy would bet these hands 100 procent and put his range on a hand that probably has a decent amount of showdown value.

The question is do we valuebet this river or check and put a small raise if he bets? Obviously with the intentions of folding to a raise or shove if we c/r.



PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed)

MP2 ($123.25)
CO ($92.20)
Button ($100)
SB ($74.90)
BB ($122.50)
Hero (UTG) ($185.05)
MP1 ($111.40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $4, MP1 calls $4, 2 folds, Button calls $4, 2 folds

Flop: ($13.50) 9, 7, 9 (3 players)
Hero bets $8, 1 fold, Button calls $8

Turn: ($29.50) Q (2 players)
Hero checks, Button checks

River: ($29.50) 10 (2 players)
Hero?

[bigspenda73]

seems like a bad nit wouldn't value bet thin enough to make going for a c/r more profitable than just betting and letting him bluff-catch ya.

[ATOTHEC101]

bet bet bet probably folding to a raise on the turn or river, as played bet $24.

[Miffed22001]

if the turn was a non-Q/K/A id have said check call because he will just auto-bet like lots of the bad 100nl nits do - but with the Q i feel he'll check a lot of showdown-able hands but is probably bad enough to call with 66/77 etc and talk himself into JT

[badgers]

Bet turn as played bet river.. He's checking behind the river extremely frequently with a marginal made hand that would call a bet.

Turn is a really clear bet though imo.

[badgers]

also he's not really "floating" with 55-QQ. peeling is probs a better word, floating implies he's looking to turn his hand into a bluff.

If you're checking this turn with AA your value range is realllly small which isn't good if you want to barrel this a lot.

Edit: meant checking turn

[daven]

bad nit is calling you on two streets here, maybe three.
What's his fold to c-bet like, how about aggression?
definitely bet river as played, $24ish. He'll call most of his range and won't be raising much.

[Deanglow]

if he is a bad nit then why wouldn't you bet the turn to get him off his obvious holding

if you were bluffing

[BankItDrew]

c/r gets villain off of all hands that you beat imo.

i usually bet this river.. looks sort of like a bluffy line.

[nutsinho]

i cant imagine not betting the river. c/r isnt even a +ev play

[ZwiFT]

I think you played it fine, now vb/f river

[dtamburin]

I would definitely bet this river. I also think he has alot of holdings he would check with, that he would also call with.

[Ltrain]

bet bet bet probably folding to a raise on the turn or river, as played bet $24.

Related to this line with overpairs or TPTK OOP, if you are betting each street, what is your bet size and what raise size from villian would have you bet folding? In general, what board texture or villian type would change your answer? Wouldn't this line be exploitable? I ask because this scenario comes up very often and I feel lost.

[badgers]

bet/bet/bet is far from exploitable our value range is probably AA, full houses and quads so unless we have a huge bluffing frequency how are we gong to be exploited? It may be a little thin unless we make the river bet less than half pot. Regardless of whether we bet the river I think a turn bet is going to be called more ofen than a river bet since its a more coherent bluff line so I really think we should be betting turn..

[JinxT4]

$22/f imo.

[mixchange]

Bet Fold river seems optimal, and turn check is great vs. bad nit

Bet Bet Bet just sounds like a good way to make a nit fold... to those saying BBB, what does a bad nit ever call off with on this board that is worse?

badgers, he said a bad nit, not a thinking one. no bad nits ever think "wow, this is a great spot to bluff, I should call" -- i mean they are bad nits... by definition...


Also, I think once you see this board you should have a plan for this hand as the board isnt going to change that much except if the turn hits an A (not because we have a lot of A's in our range, but because it makes bad nit fold). You shouldn't reallly have to make a river decision, I think texture-wise and positionally vs. this opponent we should be pretty much always Bet flop, Check turn, bet river